Silen's Financials Fair Value

29 janv. 2022

It is finally here! 🔥 My 3rd and most important script in my Financial series! 🚀

Ever imagined to see all fundamentals (or many that is) combined into one indicator that is right on your chart, showing you how your favorite stock is trading compared to its fundamentals?
Well, here is your answer! 📡

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This script shows you my own personal interpretation of fair value, based solely on the financial fundamentals of a company compared to market averages.
I don't believe that certain sectors of the market should be priced higher than others. If you look at historical data you'll see that favored sectors always rotate - placing insanely high P/E multiples on some sectors. Once they are "out" and people rotate away from those sectors you're left with nothing but the naked fundamentals that matter. So, you'll see many companies, that have been doing well on paper, see their share price decline by 70-90% for no other reasons than people favoring other sectors.

That's why it's even more important to focus on fair value that is solely fundamentals-based. Know when your stock gets to expensive. 🤯

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To give you some examples:
- Most Megacaps trade at historically high valuations, several times my fair value. Those include AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, JPM, TSM, V and so on. And no, in the past they partially traded below (my) fair value.
- Most Cybersecurity / Cloud companies are trading at truly massive multiples of my fair value. (NET, DDOG, etc)
- Many Smallcaps & Midcaps are trading several multiples (OESX, CODX, QFIN) below my fair value. And no, in the past they partially traded above (my) fair value.

Ok, so much about the market. You ultimately decide how much you want to orientate on fair value. 👨‍🏫

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This fair value indicator (purple line):

• Takes the P/E rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
  
• Takes the P/S rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
  
• Then adds boni and mali for debt/equity rates and debt and equity itself
  
• Also looks at past growth and calculates future P/E and P/S rates which adds , in some cases, value to the fair value (green line)
  
• Also compares how historical valuations have behaved compared to fair value and simulates a fair value guideline (dark blue line)
  

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This script is part 3️⃣ of a series of indicators that work well together.

Script 1️⃣ of the series is:
P/E & P/S Rates

Script 2️⃣ of the series is:
Debt & Equity

If you use all 3 scripts together it will look like this, giving you truly deep and simple information about the fundamentals of a company:


Example 1 - AMD


Example 2 - HZO


Example 3 - APPS






I hope this script makes your investing and stock picks a lot easier! 🔆💹🕗

Disclaimer: Fair value is always subjective. There are many different approaches to fair value. This one is only my personal interpretation.
Disclaimer 2: This script works only for the Day-Timeframe.
Disclaimer 3: This script uses 17,5 P/E and 3,0 P/S as market averages. The actual average keeps changing but, historically speaking, these seemed to be good numbers.

Feel free to share your thoughts and feedback! 🙃