PROTECTED SOURCE SCRIPT
BTC Physical Probability
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// ║ Advanced Multi-Format Data Parser & Visualization System ║
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// ║ © 2026 - OzyTarget Systems ║
// ║ Classified Level: PROFESSIONAL GRADE ║
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This indicator analyzes Bitcoin market regimes using a physical cost-based approach, not sentiment or news.
It models BTC as an energy-intensive system, where price behavior is constrained by:
A long-term cost proxy (200-week moving average),
Normalized volatility (stress vs normal conditions),
Drawdown pressure (structural damage).
The script outputs three probability curves:
Downside Probability (red): risk of continued downside due to physical and volatility stress.
Floor / Capitulation Probability (orange): likelihood that price is near a transitional or capitulation zone.
Upside Probability (green): probability of a sustainable upside regime, not a short-term bounce.
A single status label on the right summarizes the current regime:
BUY: upside probability dominates while downside risk is controlled.
SELL: downside probability dominates while upside is weak.
WAIT: no clear edge; transitional or high-noise conditions.
How to use
Best used on 1D or 1W timeframes.
Use BUY / SELL / WAIT as a regime filter, not as exact entries.
WAIT zones are intentionally frequent and represent periods of uncertainty where risk/reward is asymmetric.
Why this model
Bitcoin is not analyzed here as a traditional financial asset, but as a physical system constrained by cost, energy, and volatility.
The goal is to identify high-probability environments, not to predict exact tops or bottoms.
Educational use only.
This indicator does not predict future prices and is not financial advice.
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// ║ ║
// ║ ║
// ║ Advanced Multi-Format Data Parser & Visualization System ║
// ║ ║
// ║ © 2026 - OzyTarget Systems ║
// ║ Classified Level: PROFESSIONAL GRADE ║
// ║ ║
// ╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ ╝
This indicator analyzes Bitcoin market regimes using a physical cost-based approach, not sentiment or news.
It models BTC as an energy-intensive system, where price behavior is constrained by:
A long-term cost proxy (200-week moving average),
Normalized volatility (stress vs normal conditions),
Drawdown pressure (structural damage).
The script outputs three probability curves:
Downside Probability (red): risk of continued downside due to physical and volatility stress.
Floor / Capitulation Probability (orange): likelihood that price is near a transitional or capitulation zone.
Upside Probability (green): probability of a sustainable upside regime, not a short-term bounce.
A single status label on the right summarizes the current regime:
BUY: upside probability dominates while downside risk is controlled.
SELL: downside probability dominates while upside is weak.
WAIT: no clear edge; transitional or high-noise conditions.
How to use
Best used on 1D or 1W timeframes.
Use BUY / SELL / WAIT as a regime filter, not as exact entries.
WAIT zones are intentionally frequent and represent periods of uncertainty where risk/reward is asymmetric.
Why this model
Bitcoin is not analyzed here as a traditional financial asset, but as a physical system constrained by cost, energy, and volatility.
The goal is to identify high-probability environments, not to predict exact tops or bottoms.
Educational use only.
This indicator does not predict future prices and is not financial advice.
Script protégé
Ce script est publié en source fermée. Cependant, vous pouvez l'utiliser librement et sans aucune restriction – pour en savoir plus, cliquez ici.
Volume analyst
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Script protégé
Ce script est publié en source fermée. Cependant, vous pouvez l'utiliser librement et sans aucune restriction – pour en savoir plus, cliquez ici.
Volume analyst
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.