I have finished to create the Bitcoin stock to flow indicator, rainbow version.
It's a Bitcoin price prediction model.
What is Stock To Flow ?
Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves and flow is the yearly production.
The formula is : Stock divided by flow ( Stock_to_flow = STOCK / FLOW )
The supply of bitcoins is fixed in the source code.
What we know :
- Blocks are created every 10 minutes ( average )
- In 2009, 50 Bitcoins was created every 10 minutes , so 300 Bitcoins per hour, 7200 per day, 2628000 per year
- The Halving happened each 210000 blocks , the average time between halving is around 1300-1400 days.
The mathematical formula that I used for the rainbow line is : exp(-1,84) * (Stock_to_flow ^ 3,36)
And the mathematical formula that I used for the " top price line " is : 1.2 * (Stock_to_flow ^ 3)
The rainbow line IS the prediction model .
We can observe that :
- The price follow the rainbow line
- After each halving, the price grow and touch few month after the rainbow line
- When the price is between the rainbow line and the " top price line ", habitually, it's followed by a drop of the price below the rainbow line.
Special thanks to PlanB.