deKoder | Ultra High Timeframe Moving Average & Log StDev Bands

deKoder | Ultra High Timeframe Moving Average & Log StDev Bands

Identify long-term statistical extremes and map the core trend with the deKoder | uHTF MA indicator. Designed for macro analysis, this tool uses ultra high timeframe moving averages and logarithmic standard deviation bands to frame price action, providing clear signals for when an asset is statistically cheap, fairly priced, or expensive.

KEY FEATURES

• Ultra High Timeframe (uHTF) Moving Average:
• Acts as a dynamic long term fair value equilibrium line. Choose from periods like 1-Year, 2-Year, or 'Long Time'.
• Select your MA type: SMA, EMA, Hull MA, or a Rolling VWAP.
• Automatically fetches optimal data (4H/D) for smoother plotting on lower timeframes.

• Probabilistic Logarithmic Bands:
• The bands are calculated using log-standard deviation, creating a framework that adapts to exponential growth. As such, your chart price scale should be set to log.
• ~68% of price action typically occurs between the ±1σ bands (fair value zone).
• Trading in the ±1σ to ±2σ channel is typical in a strongly trending market. Moves towards the ±3σ bands can indicate that the market is becoming overextended. Expect strong price moves here and pay attention for signs of reversal.

• Bitcoin Halving Timeline:
• Integrated vertical lines and labels for all Bitcoin halvings.
• Correlates technical extremes with fundamental scarcity events.

• 4-Year Cycle Visual Aid:
• The background color cycle highlights yearly changes.
• Red years have historically aligned with bear markets, while the subsequent green zone has marked accumulation phases.
• Note: The bands provide the primary information - the background color is a contextual guide based on historical patterns around the BTC 4 year halving cycle that may not persist in future. It's quite possible that the market will act differently going forward considering the new types participants such as ETFs and government reserve funds.

HOW TO USE & INTERPRET

• Fair Value & Extremes:
• Price between ±1σ Bands: The asset is trading within a statistically fair value range.
• Price at +2σ / +3σ Bands: The asset is statistically expensive. Statistically, the price is overextended in this region, although you do NOT want to fade it based only upon this information.
• Price at -2σ / -3σ Bands: The asset is statistically cheap. These zones have frequently coincided with the end of bear markets and profound long-term buying opportunities.

• Dynamic Support & Resistance:
• The uHTF MA and its bands tend to act as support and resistance areas of interest on daily, weekly and monthly charts.

INPUTS & CUSTOMIZATION

• Toggles: Master switch for the MA, Bands, and Halving markers.
• uHTF Moving Average Filter: Select instrument (default: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD), price source, MA length, and type.
• Colours: Fine-tune the appearance of all elements.

PRO TIPS

• While created for Bitcoin, this principle will work well on other high-growth assets and major indices.
• The most reliable signals occur on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly timeframes.
• This is a lagging, macro-filter indicator. It is not for timing short-term entries but for confirming the long-term trend and cycle phase.

"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful." - The deKoder | uHTF MA is here to help you quantify that greed and fear on a macro scale.