BTC Regime Oscillator (MC + Spread) [1D]

ONLY SUPPOSED TO BE USED FOR BTC PERPS, AND SPOT LEVERAGING:

This is a risk oscillator that measures whether Bitcoin’s price is supported by real capital or is running ahead of it, and converts that into a simple risk-regime oscillator.

It's built with market cap, and FDV, and Z-scores compressed to -100 <-> 100

I created this indicator because I got tired of FOMO Twitter and Wall Street games.

DO NOT USE THIS AS A BEGIN-ALL-AND-END-ALL. YOU NEED TO USE THIS AS A CONFIRMATION INDICATOR, AND ON HTF ONLY (1D>) IF YOU USE THIS ON LOWER TIMEFRAMES, YOU ARE FEEDING YOUR MONEY TO A LOW-LIFE DING BAT ON WALL STREET. HERE IS HOW IT WORKS:

This indicator is Split up by

A) Market Cap
--> Represents real money in BTC
--> Ownership capital
--> If MC is rising, money is entering BTC

B) FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation)
--> For BTC: price(21M) (21,000,000)
--> Represents the theoretical valuation
--> Since BTC really has a fixed cap, FDV mostly tracks the price

C) Oscillators
Both MC and FDV are:
--> Logged (to handle scale)
--> Normalized (Z-score)
--> Compressed to -100 <-> 100

HERE ARE THREE THINGS YOU ARE GOING TO SEE ON THE CHART

A) The market cap oscillator (MC OSC)
--> Normalized trend of real capital
RISING: Indicates capital inflow
FALLING: Indicates capital outflow

B) FDV Oscillator
--> Normalized trend of valuation pressure
ABOVE MC: Price is ahead of capital
BELOW MC: Capital is keeping up

!!!! FDV IS CONTEXT NOT SIGNALS !!!!

C) Spread = (FDV - MC)
--> The difference between valuation and capital
(THIS IS THE CORE SIGNAL)
NEGATIVE: Capital is gonna lead price
NEAR 0: Balanced
POSITIVE: Price leads capital

(THIS MEANS STRESS FOR BTC, NOT DILLUTION!)

WHAT DOES -60, 0, 60 MEAN?:
--> These are meant to serve as risk zones, not buy/sell dynamics; this is not the same as an RSI oscillator.

A) 0 level
--> Price and capital are balanced
--> No structural stress

(TRADE WITH NORMAL POSITION SIZE, AND NORMAL EXPECTATIONS)

B) Below -60 (Supportive/Compressed)
--> BTC is relatively cheap to recent history
--> Capital supports price well
(ALWAYS REMEMBER TO CONFIRM THIS WITH WHAT THE CHART IS TELLING YOU)
--> Press trends
--> Use higher ATRs
--> Pullbacks are better here

C) Above 60 (Overextension, or fragile)
--> BTC is expensive relative to recent history
--> Price is ahead of capital
(ALWAYS REMEMBER TO CONFIRM THIS WITH WHAT THE CHART IS TELLING YOU)
--> Reduce leverage, use smaller ATR
--> Use lower ATRs, TP faster
--> Do not chase breakouts
--> Expect volatility and whipsaws

"Can I press trades right now? Or do I need to hog my capital?"

CONDITIONS:
Spread Less than 0 and below -60 = Press trades
Spread near 0 = Normal trading conditions
Spread is Greater than 0 or above 60+ = Capital protection