Seasonality Forecast

12 janv. 2022

Seasonality Forecast is an indicator that gives an expected return over a coming period by looking at the average return for the same period in history. By default the indicator will show the forecast return for the next 20 days based on the last 5 years of data, these settings are changeable by the user, with the ability to use 20 years of historical data to calculate a forecast. You can also specify in the indicator settings "Use Custom Time" to go back to a particular date in the past to look at the forecast return from that date forward.

Seasonality is all around us, with the weather, business cycles, product demand, and even in your own personal habits. Chances are what you're doing today is somewhat similar to the same date last year. Traders especially in the futures markets have long known about seasonality effects and have taken advantage of it in the commodity markets where seasonality is more apparent since many commodities are affected by significant demand, weather and supply patterns.

This indicator can be applied to all markets and should be used on the daily timeframe with 10 - 100 day forecasts, it is designed to be used as part of an overall trading process in order to add strength to entry signals. If you don't see a reading it's because the instrument you're looking at doesn't have enough historical data to calculate an average expected return, ideally you always want to use at least 5 years of historical data to calculate a seasonality forecast and the more history used the more robust the forecast is.

To get access to this indicator PM or email me to my address shown below.

Enjoy :)


Disclaimer: All my scripts and content are for educational purposes only. I'm not a financial advisor and do not give personal financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Please trade at your own risk.

9 janv. 2023

Notes de version

Updated wording in table from "day forecast" to "bar forecast" to more accurately reflect the forecast when looking at different timeframes, e.g.. weekly

3 juil. 2023

Notes de version

Updated table to show up the top center instead of top right.