Bitcoin Cycle History Visualization [SwissAlgo]

BTC 4-Year Cycle Tops & Bottoms [SwissAlgo]
Historical visualization of Bitcoin's market cycles from 2010 to present, with projections based on weighted averages of past performance.

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CALCULATION METHODOLOGY

Why Bottom-to-Bottom Cycle Measurement?
This indicator defines cycles as bottom-to-bottom periods. This is one of several valid approaches to Bitcoin cycle analysis:
- Focuses on market behavior (price bottoms) rather than supply schedule events (halving-to-halving)
- Bottoms may offer good reference points for some analytical purposes
- Tops tend to be extended periods that are harder to define precisely
- Aligns with how some traditional asset cycles are measured and the timing observed in the broader "risk-on" assets category
- Halving events are shown separately (yellow backgrounds) for reference
- Neither halving-based nor bottom-based measurement is inherently superior

Different analysts prefer different cycle definitions based on their analytical goals. This approach prioritizes observable market turning points.

Cycle Date Definitions
- Approximate monthly ranges used for each event (e.g., Nov 2022 bottom = Nov 1-30, 2022)
- Cycle 1: Jul 2010 bottom → Jun 2011 top → Nov 2011 bottom
- Cycle 2: Nov 2011 bottom → Dec 2013 top → Jan 2015 bottom
- Cycle 3: Jan 2015 bottom → Dec 2017 top → Dec 2018 bottom
- Cycle 4: Dec 2018 bottom → Nov 2021 top → Nov 2022 bottom
- Future cycles will be added as new top/bottom dates become firm

Duration Calculations
- Days = timestamp difference converted to days (milliseconds ÷ 86,400,000)
- Bottom → Top: days from cycle bottom to peak
- Top → Bottom: days from peak to next cycle bottom
- Bottom → Bottom: full cycle duration (sum of above)

Price Change Calculations
- % Change = ((New Price - Old Price) / Old Price) × 100
- Example: $200 → $19,700 = ((19,700 - 200) / 200) × 100 = 9,750% gain
- Approximate historical prices used (rounded to significant figures)

Weighted Average Formula
Recent cycles weighted more heavily to reflect the evolved market structure:
- Cycle 1 (2010-2011): EXCLUDED (too early-stage, tiny market cap)
- Cycle 2 (2011-2015): Weight = 1x
- Cycle 3 (2015-2018): Weight = 3x
- Cycle 4 (2018-2022): Weight = 5x

Formula: Weighted Avg = (C2×1 + C3×3 + C4×5) / (1+3+5)
Example for Bottom→Top days: (761×1 + 1065×3 + 1066×5) / 9 = 1,032 days

Projection Method
- Projected Top Date = Nov 2022 bottom + weighted avg Bottom→Top days
- Projected Bottom Date = Nov 2022 bottom + weighted avg Bottom→Bottom days
- Current days elapsed compared to weighted averages
- Warning symbol (⚠) shown when the current cycle exceeds the historical average

Technical Implementation
- Historical cycle dates are hardcoded (not algorithmically detected)
- Dates represent approximate monthly ranges for each event
- The indicator will be updated as the Cycle 5 top and bottom dates become confirmed
- Updates require manual code maintenance - not automatic
- Users should verify they're using the latest version for current cycle data

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FEATURES

- Background highlights for historical tops (red), bottoms (green), and halving events (yellow)
- Data table showing cycle durations and price changes
- Visual cycle boundary boxes with subtle coloring
- Projected timeframes displayed as dashed vertical lines
- Toggle on/off for each visual element
- Customizable background colors

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DISPLAY SETTINGS

- Show/hide cycle tops, bottoms, halvings, data table, and cycle boxes
- Customizable background colors for each event type
- Clean, institutional-grade visual design suitable for analysis

UPDATES & MAINTENANCE
This indicator is maintained as new cycle events occur. When Cycle 5's top and bottom are confirmed with sufficient time elapsed, the code and projections will be updated accordingly. Check for the latest version periodically.

OPEN SOURCE
Code available for review, modification, and improvement. Educational transparency is prioritized.

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IMPORTANT LIMITATIONS

⚠ EXTREMELY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
Based on only 4 complete cycles (2011-2022). In statistical analysis, this is insufficient for reliable predictions.

⚠ CHANGED MARKET STRUCTURE
Bitcoin's market has fundamentally evolved since early cycles:
- 2010-2015: Tiny market cap, retail-only, unregulated
- 2024-2025: Institutional adoption, spot ETFs, regulatory frameworks, macro correlation
The environment that created past patterns no longer exists in the same form.

⚠ NO PREDICTIVE GUARANTEE
Historical patterns can and do break. Market cycles are not laws of physics. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The next cycle may not follow historical averages.

⚠ LENGTHENING CYCLE THEORY
Some analysts believe cycles are extending over time (diminishing returns, maturing market). If true, simple averaging underestimates future cycle lengths.

⚠ SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY RISK
The halving narrative may be partially circular - it works because people believe it works. Sufficient changes in market structure or participant behavior can invalidate the pattern.

⚠ APPROXIMATE DATA
Historical prices rounded to significant figures. Exact bottom/top dates vary by exchange. Month-long ranges are used for simplicity.

EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY
This indicator is designed for historical analysis and understanding Bitcoin's past behavior. It is NOT:
- Trading advice or financial recommendations
- A guarantee or prediction of future price movements
- Suitable as a sole basis for investment decisions
- A replacement for fundamental or technical analysis

The projections show "what if the pattern continues exactly" - not "what will happen."
Always conduct independent research, understand the risks, and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Only invest what you can afford to lose.