OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
GLOBAL RISK TERMINAL
Concept
Measures different macro ratios being:
- Copper / Gold : measuring Real-economy vs safe-haven metals
- Russell 200/ S&P 500 : measuring Small-cap vs large-cap equity rotation
- 10 Year Notes / Dollar : measuring Bond strength vs USD strength
Each ratio contributes +1 when it’s trending up (risk-on), and –1 when trending down (risk-off).
Then you average them to get a score between –1 and +1:
Score Interpretation
+1.0 Full risk-on (liquidity inflow, small-cap rotation, copper leading)
+0.33 to +0.66 Moderate risk-on bias
0 Neutral / transition
–0.33 to –0.66 Cautious risk-off
–1.0 Full risk-off (liquidity drain, safety bid, growth stress)
Logic Behind The Ratios
⚙️ 1️⃣ HG / GC → “Growth Engine vs Liquidity Stress”
(Copper divided by Gold)
What it measures
Gold (GC) = liquidity hedge, monetary demand, fear bid.
Copper (HG) = real-economy demand, credit creation, growth optimism.
So HG/GC shows the market’s preference for safety vs growth.
How to read it
- Rising (HG↑ faster or GC↓) Growth demand rising faster than fear hedge. ✅ Risk-on/reflation
- Falling (GC↑ faster than HG or HG↓) Investors hoarding safety, selling growth metals.⚠️Risk-off / tightening liquidity
- Flat / diverging daily vs weekly, Transition phase, often pre-trend change.🕐 Watch for equity breakout or correction
⚙️ 2️⃣ RTY / ES → “Risk Appetite within Equities”
(Russell 2000 divided by S&P 500)
What it measures
RTY (small-caps) = domestic, credit-sensitive, high-beta stocks.
ES (S&P 500) = large-cap, defensive, global.
So this ratio shows where equity capital is rotating.
How to read it
- Rising : Investors prefer small-caps → higher risk tolerance.✅ Risk-on / expansion
- Falling : Flow into large-caps → seeking safety, liquidity preference.⚠️ Risk-off / defensive rotation
- Extreme divergence from NQ : NQ rallying while RTY/ES sinking = late-cycle blow-off.🚨 Early short signal
⚙️ 3️⃣ ZN / DXY → “Global Liquidity Pulse”
(10-year Treasury Note divided by U.S. Dollar Index)
What it measures
ZN = Treasury price (yields inverse). Higher = lower yields = easier liquidity.
DXY = global dollar strength. Higher = tighter funding, stronger USD demand.
Thus ZN/DXY captures liquidity inflows vs liquidity drains.
How to read it
- Rising (Bonds↑, USD↓) : Capital buying bonds & selling dollars → easing financial conditions. ✅ Risk-on
- Falling (Bonds↓, USD↑) : Liquidity draining; higher yields + dollar squeeze.⚠️ Risk-off
- Mixed (Bonds↑ + USD↑) : Safe-haven conflict → short-term volatility / indecision.🟠 Neutral / chop
Measures different macro ratios being:
- Copper / Gold : measuring Real-economy vs safe-haven metals
- Russell 200/ S&P 500 : measuring Small-cap vs large-cap equity rotation
- 10 Year Notes / Dollar : measuring Bond strength vs USD strength
Each ratio contributes +1 when it’s trending up (risk-on), and –1 when trending down (risk-off).
Then you average them to get a score between –1 and +1:
Score Interpretation
+1.0 Full risk-on (liquidity inflow, small-cap rotation, copper leading)
+0.33 to +0.66 Moderate risk-on bias
0 Neutral / transition
–0.33 to –0.66 Cautious risk-off
–1.0 Full risk-off (liquidity drain, safety bid, growth stress)
Logic Behind The Ratios
⚙️ 1️⃣ HG / GC → “Growth Engine vs Liquidity Stress”
(Copper divided by Gold)
What it measures
Gold (GC) = liquidity hedge, monetary demand, fear bid.
Copper (HG) = real-economy demand, credit creation, growth optimism.
So HG/GC shows the market’s preference for safety vs growth.
How to read it
- Rising (HG↑ faster or GC↓) Growth demand rising faster than fear hedge. ✅ Risk-on/reflation
- Falling (GC↑ faster than HG or HG↓) Investors hoarding safety, selling growth metals.⚠️Risk-off / tightening liquidity
- Flat / diverging daily vs weekly, Transition phase, often pre-trend change.🕐 Watch for equity breakout or correction
⚙️ 2️⃣ RTY / ES → “Risk Appetite within Equities”
(Russell 2000 divided by S&P 500)
What it measures
RTY (small-caps) = domestic, credit-sensitive, high-beta stocks.
ES (S&P 500) = large-cap, defensive, global.
So this ratio shows where equity capital is rotating.
How to read it
- Rising : Investors prefer small-caps → higher risk tolerance.✅ Risk-on / expansion
- Falling : Flow into large-caps → seeking safety, liquidity preference.⚠️ Risk-off / defensive rotation
- Extreme divergence from NQ : NQ rallying while RTY/ES sinking = late-cycle blow-off.🚨 Early short signal
⚙️ 3️⃣ ZN / DXY → “Global Liquidity Pulse”
(10-year Treasury Note divided by U.S. Dollar Index)
What it measures
ZN = Treasury price (yields inverse). Higher = lower yields = easier liquidity.
DXY = global dollar strength. Higher = tighter funding, stronger USD demand.
Thus ZN/DXY captures liquidity inflows vs liquidity drains.
How to read it
- Rising (Bonds↑, USD↓) : Capital buying bonds & selling dollars → easing financial conditions. ✅ Risk-on
- Falling (Bonds↓, USD↑) : Liquidity draining; higher yields + dollar squeeze.⚠️ Risk-off
- Mixed (Bonds↑ + USD↑) : Safe-haven conflict → short-term volatility / indecision.🟠 Neutral / chop
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Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit de TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open-source, afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier sa fonctionnalité. Bravo à l'auteur! Vous pouvez l'utiliser gratuitement, mais n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.