TARVIS Labs - Bitcoin Macro Bottom/Top SignalsSCRIPT DESCRIPTION
This is a script specifically written to help provide indicators from a macro view. This script is best run on the 1 day interval on Bitstamp's $BTCUSD chart. It helps indicate when to accumulate bitcoin, and when its in a bull run when there are local tops, strong top warnings, and a signal to exit a bull run. This is described further below.
If you don't have interest in trading on the way to the top I suggest turning off the following indicators in the settings of the indicator:
- Opportunity To Buy Back In Indicator
- Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator
ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - LIGHT GREEN
Description
When we look at the history of Bitcoin every bottom has crossed below the 100 week EMA. Once it does its accompanied by hash ribbon cross with miner capitulation. After that is the prime time to accumulate as theres a clearer signal the bottom is in. Specifically, a signal to look for is the 14 day MACD/signal cross and the 14 day MACD continuing to stay above the signal until the price returns above the 100 week EMA. This is prime accumulation territory.
Strategy for Usage
A good strategy to use when accumulating the bottom is dollar-cost averaging over a 30 day period. The accumulation zone can last longer than 30 days but 30 days is a good range of time to DCA.
STRONG BUY IN ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - DARK GREEN
Description
We can add to the bottoming signal by looking for post-downtrend reversals inside the bottoming signal. We do this by using a 9/19 daily cross.
Strategy for Usage
These post-downtrend reversals can potentially provide better targeted days for accumulation than the broader bottoming signal and can be used to add more on that day than on an average day for the dollar cost average strategy. Say for example, use 1/3 of funds on these days rather than 1/30th.
OPPORTUNITY TO BUY BACK IN INDICATOR - BLUE
Description
When the 1d 18 EMA > 1d 63 EMA and the 12/52 1d crosses. These together provide good buy opportunities to buy bitcoin.
Strategy for Usage
If you happen to find yourself out of the market from your own TA or a trade, this signal can provide a buy opportunity to reenter the market if you're out of it.
BULL RUN LOCAL TOP INDICATOR - ORANGE
Description
We will similarly use the 100 week EMA to determine trend reversal into a bull run. When we see the 100 week EMA uptrending, we can begin to look for local tops using the 9/19 daily MACD/signal bearish cross along with the 12 EMA having a negative slope, which could be the beginning signal for a local top.
Strategy for Usage
This is a rather light indicator, but can be used in tandem with your own technical analysis to determine if you want to reenter after you exit from its signal.
LOCAL TOP NEAR BULL RUN TOP INDICATOR - RED
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend we can look for significant loss of momentum in order to determine if a local top is in near a bull run top. Similar to the Bull Run Local Top Indicator, this strategy uses a MACD/signal cross but instead uses the 30/65 day EMAs.
Strategy for Usage
Ideally the right strategy to use here is to exit the market when this indicator starts. When the indicator ends if the "End of Bull Run Indicator" is not showing on the chart you can buy back into the market.
TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a very strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.
Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.
TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.
Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.
END OF BULL RUN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend and the 1d 18 EMA crosses the 1d 63 EMA.
Strategy for Usage
When the 100 week EMA is a strong uptrend and the 18/63 cross occurs the top is very likely in. It has occurred in every bull run top leading to the bear market.
Bitcoin (Crypto-monnaie)
Crypto Force IndexIntroduction
The Crypto Force Index (CFI) indicator helps us understand the current strength and weakness of the price. It is very useful when used on high timeframes for investment purposes and not for short term trading.
To determine the strength and weakness of the price, a level grid based on the RSI indicator is used.
Based on the RSI value, red circles (oversold condition) and green circles (overbought condition) appear under the price candles. The more intense the color of the circles, the more that the current price is in an overbought or oversold condition.
The signal levels are all configurable to adapt the indicator across multiple instruments and markets.
The default configuration have been designed to obtain more accurate signals on Ethereum and Bitcoin, using the weekly timeframe.
Why Crypto Force Index?
The Crypto Force Index (CFI) is the consequence of my study of investments based on the accumulation plan. I wanted to demonstrate that I am improving the returns of the classic DCA ( dollar cost averaging ) and VA ( value averaging ).
After finding my own model of an accumulation plan, I decided to create the Crypto Force Index to help me visually enter the market.
The formulas of the indicator are very simple, but my studies confirm the power of this tool.
How are the signals to be interpreted?
The Crypto Force Index helps us to highlight the overbought and oversold areas, with the use of circles under the price of candles and with a thermometer inserted at the base of the graph, where all the phases of strength and weakness are highlighted.
As soon as the red circles start to appear on the chart, that may be a good time to enter LONG to the market and start accumulating. If the circles are green, we can consider decreasing the current exposure by selling part of your portfolio, or decide to stay flat.
I personally use these signals on the weekly timeframe, to decide to feed my accumulation plan at the beginning of each month.
I hope it can be of help to you! Please help me improve the Crypto Force Index! :)
Blockchain Fundamentals - Active Address Sentiment Osc. [CR]Blockchain Fundamentals: Active Address Sentiment Oscillator AASO
Back with another script today, this one is a useful tool in helping to determine bitcoins value. We are looking at 2 data sources: the daily active addresses on the BTC blockchain, and the daily returns of BTC.
THIS INDICATOR WILL ONLY GIVE YOU THE CORRECT RESULTS ON THE DAILY TIMEFRAME
There is an interesting relationship that you can see by comparing the two timeseries. But for us to create a good indicator we first need to normalize the data. So we look at the percent change over the past 28 days for each metric (DAA and price).
THIS INDICATOR WILL ONLY GIVE YOU THE CORRECT RESULTS ON THE DAILY TIMEFRAME
We then calculate standard deviation bands around the DAA metric. We finalize them by averaging the bands over a 28 day period.
When the Price series (yellow line) is higher than the SD bands BTC is considered overvalued or price is overheated. A pullback could be expected soon. When the Price series is below the SD bands BTC is considered undervalued or price is oversold.
THIS INDICATOR WILL ONLY GIVE YOU THE CORRECT RESULTS ON THE DAILY TIMEFRAME
This tool doesnt give signals on the one minute chart or tell you exactly when to buy or sell. BUT what it does do is act as a convenient macro sentiment indicator that is not based completely upon price.
In an attempt to narrow down the really juicy areas, if you seen the background color highlights with white, that means its likely a top or bottom. At the very least on a local sense and many times in a cyclical macro sense as well. It also narrows down the signal to a generally more profitable area.
This indicator is not meant to be used on timeframes other than daily (did I mention that already?). I am lazy and did not code the calculations to be MTF (which is why you have to use on the daily chart). If you want to code this, please forward it on to me and I will post an update with a heartfelt credit to you.
ALMA/EMA/SRSI Strategy + IndicatorBack with another great high hit rate strategy!!
Disclaimer* This strategy was sampled using source code written by @ClassicScott , as referred to in the script, there is a clear line where the source code was scripted by myself.
This Strategy consists of three key factors, the ALMA, EMA crossover, and a Stochastic Rsi
ALMA: The Alma is the step line shown, turning green and red at select times. This average value gives general oversight of the macro movement of price action. and this particular one was coded by Mr.ClassicScott.
EMA crossover: At the input screen you are given an option of the fast and slow ema's. The default is solely for the hit rate and correlation to the Alma of this strategy. The arrows you see depicted on the chart are the crossover events happening.
Stochastic Rsi: The Stochastic Rsi is a stochastic value, using data sampled from the rsi. The use of this indicator in my strategy is to prevent entries when too overbought and oversold, as well as closures and vice versa, to prevent holding bags either way.
Fixed % TP: In the input screen you are given a take profit and stop loss percentage, for good R/R the hit rate will take a notch down, but with no R/R it will be near perfect.
How to use this:
Add it to your chart to get the strategy inputs. (The strategy is really only useful on a 15min TF. However the indicator within it can be used on anything at anytime!)
Watch the yellow and aqua moving averages, these are your ema's and crossover's will trigger signals based on your integer inputs.
Find Correlation between other leading indicators, as well as crossover's down/up and a red/green alma.
DO NOT use the arrows as buy/sell signals. These are simply to show ema's are crossing under or over. Momentum indicator's paired with this can be useful to determine if it could be a buy signal or sell signal.
Cheat Code's Notes:
Almost at 1000 boosts!!! I appreciate the support from everyone and I will keep trying my best to deliver quality strategies for the people.
-Cheat Code
BYBIT:BTCUSDT
Blockchain Fundamentals: Electricity Cost of BTC [CR] Blockchain Fundamentals: Electricity Cost of BTC
After a hiatus, now a return to publishing tools and scripts for the community. This is my first script in over and year, and I have a number more coming soon as well! (so Stay Tuned!)
This is a simple calculator to estimate the cost of Bitcoin miners to mine one bitcoin. It works on all timeframes (doesnt have to be on daily).
By entering the inputs of total TH's, kWh used, cost of electricity per kWh (in USD cents) we can generate the electricity cost.
But miners also have other costs of operation including HVAC, maintenance, rent, etc. In light of that we include a multiplier that accounts for these extra costs. First, type in what percent of your total operating costs come from the electricity. Then check the enable total cost plot option and you will also see total costs in addition to electricity costs.
Its a simple model and gives anyone curious a starting point for their own testing and research.
Munich's Momentum Wave V2MUNICH'S MOMENTUM WAVE VERSION 2 IS LIVE!!!
There are a few big things to note with this one.
I decided to upload this as an entirely new script due to the number of changes differing from the first version, but as the last one, this will still work on ANY TIMEFRAME, ANY ASSET CLASS, ANY PRICE! .
This momentum wave indicator now will give you data for when trend could turn, and two momentum indicators to help you decide when to take an entry.
First off,
*I have added an alma ma (alma) that will track momentum alongside price action and further lead the indicator consisting of the Munich waves.
* The background feature will track the price using a method derived from the Bollinger bands, after calculations, it will color the background based on the average of the momentum's ema's, the alma ma, and also the alma in comparison to the alma's value pre offset ( the offset is 3, following the basis).
*There are now 5 basis values given from the increase in ema samples.
If anyone has any questions feel free to pm me or comment below. Thank you guys for the support! :)
INDEX:BTCUSD TVC:NDQ AMEX:SPY BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FX:USDJPY NASDAQ:AAPL
München's Momentum WaveMUNICH'S MOMENTUM WAVE:
This momentum tracker has features sampled from Madrid's moving average ribbon but has differentiated many values, parameters, and usage of integers. It is derived using momentum and then creates moving averages and mean lengths to help support the strength of a move in price action, and also has the key mean length that helps determine HL/LH or rejections into trend continuation. This indicator works on ALL TIME FRAMES, ALL ASSET CLASSES ON ALL SETTINGS!!
HOW DO I USE IT?
*First off, I have arranged the input settings into groups based on the parts of the indicator it affects.
*You want to use the aqua/white/yellow (Munich's line) as your leading indicator, this is a combined average of the MoM indicator.
* When using Munich's line you want to look at the relation to the mean line (the flat line that adjusts based on price action. You will often see rejections of this line into trend continuation. I personally have caught perfect LH/HL bounce trades off of this indicator.
* Use the Background and other colored moving averages to help pre-determine moves based on the -3 offset value of Munich's line. This was by design not to create 'accurate' results, but to help predict momentum swings based on sharper moves in price action better than if all values lined up to the current bar.
Cheat Code's Notes:
I hope you guys find this indicator to be useful, this is most likely the best indicator that I have written. Simply for the fact it is useful on any chart, any timeframe with any setting. If you guys have any issues with it, shoot me a pm or drop a comment. Thanks!
-CheatCode1
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD PEPPERSTONE:JPYX TVC:DXY TVC:NDQ AMEX:SPY
Close v Open Moving Averages Strategy (Variable) [divonn1994]This is a simple moving average based strategy that works well with a few different coin pairings. It takes the moving average 'opening' price and plots it, then takes the moving average 'closing' price and plots it, and then decides to enter a 'long' position or exit it based on whether the two lines have crossed each other. The reasoning is that it 'enters' a position when the average closing price is increasing. This could indicate upwards momentum in prices in the future. It then exits the position when the average closing price is decreasing. This could indicate downwards momentum in prices in the future. This is only speculative, though, but sometimes it can be a very good indicator/strategy to predict future action.
What I've found is that there are a lot of coins that respond very well when the appropriate combination of: 1) type of moving average is chosen (EMA, SMA, RMA, WMA or VWMA) & 2) number of previous bars averaged (typically 10 - 250 bars) are chosen.
Depending on the coin.. each combination of MA and Number of Bars averaged can have completely different levels of success.
Example of Usage:
An example would be that the VWMA works well for BTCUSD (BitStamp), but it has different successfulness based on the time frame. For the 12 hour bar timeframe, with the 66 bar average with the VWMA I found the most success. The next best successful combo I've found is for the 1 Day bar timeframe with the 35 bar average with the VWMA.. They both have a moving average that records about a month, but each have a different successfulness. Below are a few pair combos I think are noticeable because of the net profit, but there are also have a lot of potential coins with different combos:
It's interesting to see the strategy tester change as you change the settings. The below pairs are just some of the most interesting examples I've found, but there might be other combos I haven't even tried on different coin pairs..
Some strategy settings:
BTCUSD (BitStamp) 12 Hr Timeframe : 66 bars, VWMA=> 10,387x net profit
BTCUSD (BitStamp) 1 Day Timeframe : 35 bars, VWMA=> 7,805x net profit
BNBUSD (Binance) 12 Hr Timeframe : 27 bars, VWMA => 15,484x net profit
ETHUSD (BitStamp) 16 Hr Timeframe : 60 bars, SMA => 5,498x net profit
XRPUSD (BitStamp) 16 Hr Timeframe : 33 bars, SMA => 10,178x net profit
I only chose these coin/combos because of their insane net profit factors. There are far more coins with lower net profits but more reliable trade histories.
Also, usually when I want to see which of these strategies might work for a coin pairing I will check between the different Moving Average types, for example the EMA or the SMA, then I also check between the moving average lengths (the number of bars calculated) to see which is most profitable over time.
Features:
-You can choose your preferred moving average: SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA & VWMA.
-You can also adjust the previous number of calculated bars for each moving average.
-I made the background color Green when you're currently in a long position and Red when not. I made it so you can see when you'd be actively in a trade or not. The Red and Green background colors can be toggled on/off in order to see other indicators more clearly overlayed in the chart, or if you prefer a cleaner look on your charts.
-I also have a plot of the Open moving average and Close moving average together. The Opening moving average is Purple, the Closing moving average is White. White on top is a sign of a potential upswing and purple on top is a sign of a potential downswing. I've made this also able to be toggled on/off.
Please, comment interesting pairs below that you've found for everyone :) thank you!
I will post more pairs with my favorite settings as well. I'll also be considering the quality of the trades.. for example: net profit, total trades, percent profitable, profit factor, trade window and max drawdown.
*if anyone can figure out how to change the date range, I woul really appreciate the help. It confuses me -_- *
Dap's Oscillator- Short Term Momentum and Trend. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDT BYBIT:ETHUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT
DAP's OSCILLATOR:
WHAT IS IT?
This Oscillator was created to inspire confidence in the short-term trend of traders. This will work very well with a volatility metric (I recommend BBWP by @The_Caretaker)
WHAT IS IT MADE OF?
1. Consists of a series of equations (mainly the difference between simple to exponential moving averages) and Standard deviations of these moving average differences (length equivalent to the length of sampled ma's)
2. These equations are then boiled down through an averaging process array, after averaging the covariants are equated against the variants of the positive side of the array. This is what is presented as the aqua line.
3. The RC average (yellow) is the sma following the DAP'S Oscillator at a specified length
4. The most important part of this indicator is simply the momentum oscillator represented as a green or red line based on the value relative to the Oscillators.
HOW DO I USE THIS?
As I mentioned before mixed with a volatility metric, it should set you up for a good decision based on short-term trends. I would say to be careful for periods of consolidation, with the consolidation the momentum often meets hands with DAP's Oscillator and can cause fake-outs. You want to spot divergences from the price to the momentum difference, as well as room to work down or upward to secure a good entry on a position.
CHEAT CODE'S NOTES:
I appreciate everyone who has boosted my previous scripts, it means a lot. If you want to translate words to pine script onto a chart, feel free to PM me. I would be happy to help bring an indicator to life. I may take a quick break but will be back shortly to help create more cheat codes for yall. Thanks!
-Cheat Code
PlanB Quant Investing 101 v2This script has been Inspired by PlanB Article Quant Investing 101.
With this script, I implemented Plan B strategy outlined in that article, trying to reproduce his findings independently and allowing TradeView Users to do the same.
PlabB is aware of this effort, and he's positive about it, via Twitter commenting, liking and sharing of this resource .
Trading Idea:
This script uses RSI index to determine the Buy And Sell signal.
As per the original PlanB article:
IF ( RSI was above 90% last six months AND drops below 65%) THEN sell,
IF ( RSI was below 50% last six months AND jumps +2% from the low) THEN buy, ELSE hold
My simple code is aimed at replicating his study in Pine so that every TV user can check his signal.
Trade HourThis script is just finds the best hour to buy and sell hour in a day by checking chart movements in past
For example if the red line is on the 0.63 on BTC/USDT chart it mean the start of 12AM hour on a day is the best hour to buy (all based on
It's just for 1 hour time-frame but you can test it on other charts.
IMPORTANT: You can change time Zone in strategy settings.to get the real hours as your location timezone
IMPORTANT: Its for now just for BTC/USDT but you can optimize and test for other charts...
IMPORTANT: A green and red background color calculated for show the user the best places of buy and sell (green : positive signal, red: negative signals)
settings :
timezone : We choice a time frame for our indicator as our geo location
source : A source to calculate rate of change for it
Time Period : Time period of ROC indicator
About Calculations:
1- We first get a plot that just showing the present hour as a zigzag plot
2- So we use an indicator ( Rate of change ) to calculate chart movements as positive and negative numbers. I tested ROC is the best indicator but you can test close-open or real indicator or etc as indicator.
3 - for observe effects of all previous data we should indicator_cum that just a full sum of indicator values.
4- now we need to split this effects to hours and find out which hour is the best place to buy and which is the best for sell. Ok we should just calculate multiple of hour*indicator and get complete sum of it so:
5- we will divide this number to indicator_cum : (indicator_mul_hour_cum) / indicator_cum
6- Now we have the best hour to buy! and for best sell we should just reverse the ROC indicator and recalculate the best hour for it!
7- A green and red background color calculated for show the user the best places of buy and sell that dynamically changing with observing green and red plots(green : positive signal, red: negative signals) when green plot on 15 so each day on hour 15 the background of strategy indicator will change to 15 and if its go upper after some days and reached to 16 the background green color will move to 16 dynamically.
Bitcoin Scalping Strategy (Sampled with: PMARP+MADRID MA RIBBON)
DISCLAIMER:
THE CONTENT WITHIN THIS STRATEGY IS CREATED FROM TWO INDICATORS CREATED BY TWO PINESCRIPTER'S. THE STRATEGY WAS EXECUTED BY MYSELF AND REVERSE-ENGINEERED TO MEET THE CONDITIONS OF THE INTENDED STRATEGY REQUESTOR. I DO NOT TAKE CREDIT FOR THE CONTENT WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED LINES MADE CLEAR BY MYSELF.
The Sampled Scripts and creators:
PMAR/PMARP by @The_Caretaker Link to original script:
Madrid MA RIBBON BAR by @Madrid Link to original script:
Cheat Code's strategy notes:
This sampled strategy (Requested by @elemy_eth) is one combining previously created studies. I reverse-engineered the local scope for the Madrid moving average color plots and set entry and exit conditions for certain criteria met. This strategy is meant to deliver an extremely high hit rate on a daily time frame. This is made possible because of the very low take profit percentage, during the context of a macro downtrend it is made easier to hit 1-3% scalps which is made visible with the strategy using sampled scripts I created here.
How it works:
Entry Conditions:
-Enter Long's if the lime color conditions are met true using the script detailed by Marid's MA
- No re-entry into positions needs to be met true (this prevents pyramiding of orders due to conditions being met true) applicable to both long and short side entries.
- To increase hit rate and prevent traps both the parameters of rsi being sub 80 and no previously engulfing candles need to be met true to enter a long position.
- Enter Short's if the red color conditions of Madrid's moving average are met true.
- Closing Long positions are typically not met within this indicator, however, it still sometimes triggers if necessary. This consists of a pmarp sub 99 and a position size greater than 0.0
- Closing Short positions are typically not met within this indicator, however, it still sometimes triggers if necessary. This consists of a pmarp over 01 and a position size less than 0.0
- Stop Loss: 27.75% Take Profit: 1% (Which does not trigger on ticks over 1% so you will see average trade profits greater than 1%)
BYBIT:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD
Best Of Luck :)
-CheatCode1
Binance Basis OscillatorBinance Basis Oscillator illustrates the premium or discount between Binance spot vs perps.
This indicates whether speculators (i.e. traders on perps) are paying premium vs spot. If true then speculation is leading, indicating euphoria (at certain levels).
Conversely, spot leading perps (i.e. perps at a discount) shows extreme bearish conditions, where speculation is on the short side. Indicating times of despair.
VIDYA Trend StrategyOne of the most common messages I get is people reaching out asking for quantitative strategies that trade cryptocurrency. This has compelled me to write this script and article, to help provide a quantitative/technical perspective on why I believe most strategies people write for crypto fail catastrophically, and how one might build measures within their strategies that help reduce the risk of that happening. For those that don't trade crypto, know that these approaches are applicable to any market.
I will start off by qualifying up that I mainly trade stocks and ETFs, and I believe that if you trade crypto, you should only be playing with money you are okay with losing. Most published crypto strategies I have seen "work" when the market is going up, and fail catastrophically when it is not. There are far more people trying to sell you a strategy than there are people providing 5-10+ year backtest results on their strategies, with slippage and commissions included, showing how they generated alpha and beat buy/hold. I understand that this community has some really talented people that can create some really awesome things, but I am saying that the vast majority of what you find on the internet will not be strategies that create alpha over the long term.
So, why do so many of these strategies fail?
There is an assumption many people make that cryptocurrency will act just like stocks and ETFs, and it does not. ETF returns have more of a Gaussian probability distribution. Because of this, ETFs have a short term mean reverting behavior that can be capitalized on consistently. Many technical indicators are built to take advantage of this on the equities market. Many people apply them to crypto. Many of those people are drawn down 60-70% right now while there are mean reversion strategies up YTD on equities, even though the equities market is down. Crypto has many more "tail events" that occur 3-4+ standard deviations from the mean.
There is a correlation in many equities and ETF markets for how long an asset continues to do well when it is currently doing well. This is known as momentum, and that correlation and time-horizon is different for different assets. Many technical indicators are built based on this behavior, and then people apply them to cryptocurrency with little risk management assuming they behave the same and and on the same time horizon, without pulling in the statistics to verify if that is actually the case. They do not.
People do not take into account the brokerage commissions and slippage. Brokerage commissions are particularly high with cryptocurrency. The irony here isn't lost to me. When you factor in trading costs, it blows up most short-term trading strategies that might otherwise look profitable.
There is an assumption that it will "always come back" and that you "HODL" through the crash and "buy more." This is why Three Arrows Capital, a $10 billion dollar crypto hedge fund is now in bankruptcy, and no one can find the owners. This is also why many that trade crypto are drawn down 60-70% right now. There are bad risk practices in place, like thinking the martingale gambling strategy is the same as dollar cost averaging while also using those terms interchangeably. They are not the same. The 1st will blow up your trade account, and the 2nd will reduce timing risk. Many people are systematically blowing up their trade accounts/strategies by using martingale and calling it dollar cost averaging. The more risk you are exposing yourself too, the more important your risk management strategy is.
There is an odd assumption some have that you can buy anything and win with technical/quantitative analysis. Technical analysis does not tell you what you should buy, it just tells you when. If you are running a strategy that is going long on an asset that lost 80% of its value in the last year, then your strategy is probably down. That same strategy might be up on a different asset. One might consider a different methodology on choosing assets to trade.
Lastly, most strategies are over-fit, or curve-fit. The more complicated and more parameters/settings you have in your model, the more likely it is just fit to historical data and will not perform similar in live trading. This is one of the reasons why I like simple models with few parameters. They are less likely to be over-fit to historical data. If the strategy only works with 1 set of parameters, and there isn't a range of parameters around it that create alpha, then your strategy is over-fit and is probably not suitable for live trading.
So, what can I do about all of this!?
I created the VIDYA Trend Strategy to provide an example of how one might create a basic model with a basic risk management strategy that might generate long term alpha on a volatile asset, like cryptocurrency. This is one (of many) risk management strategies that can reduce the volatility of your returns when trading any asset. I chose the Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA) for this example because it's calculation filters out some market noise by taking into account the volatility of the underlying asset. I chose a trend following strategy because regressions are capturing behaviors that are not just specific to the equities market.
The more volatile an asset, the more you have to back-off the short term price movement to effectively trend-follow it. Otherwise, you are constantly buying into short term trends that don't represent the trend of the asset, then they reverse and loose money. This is why I am applying a trend following strategy to a 4 hour chart and not a 4 minute chart. It is also important to note that following these long term trends on a volatile asset exposes you to additional risk. So, how might one mitigate some of that risk?
One of the ways of reducing timing risk is scaling into a trade. This is different from "doubling down" or "trippling down." It is really a basic application of dollar cost averaging to reduce timing risk, although DCA would typically happen over a longer time period. If it is really a trend you are following, it will probably still be a trend tomorrow. Trend following strategies have lower win rates because the beginning of a trend often reverses. The more volatile the asset, the more likely that is to happen. However, we can reduce risk of buying into a reversal by slowly scaling into the trend with a small % of equity per trade.
Our example "VIDYA Trend Strategy" executes this by looking at a medium-term, volatility adjusted trend on a 4 hour chart. The script scales into it with 4% of the account equity every 4-hours that the trend is still up. This means you become fully invested after 25 trades/bars. It also means that early in the trade, when you might be more likely to experience a reversal, most of your account equity is not invested and those losses are much smaller. The script sells 100% of the position when it detects a trend reversal. The slower you scale into a trade, the less volatile your equity curve will be. This model also includes slippage and commissions that you can adjust under the "settings" menu.
This fundamental concept of reducing timing risk by scaling into a trade can be applied to any market.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
R19 STRATEGYHello again.
Let me introduce you R19 Strategy I wrote for mostly BTC long/short signals
This is an upgrated version of STRATEGY R18 F BTC strategy.
I checked this strategy on different timeframes and different assest and found it very usefull for BTC 1 Hour and 5 minutes chart.
Strategy is basically takes BTC/USDT as a main indicator, so you can apply this strategy to all cryptocurrencies as they mostly acts accordingly with BTC itself (Of course you can change main indicator to different assets if you think that there is a positive corelation with. i.e. for BTC signals you can sellect DXY index for main indicator to act for BTC long/short signals)
Default variables of the inticator is calibrated to BTC/USDT 5 minute chart. I gained above %77 success.
Strategy simply uses, ADX, MACD, SMA, Fibo, RSI combination and opens positions accordingly. Timeframe variable is very important that, strategy decides according the timeframe you've sellected but acts within the timeframe in the chart. For example, if you're on the 5 minutes chart, but you've selected 1 hour for the time frame variable, strategy looks for 1 hour MACD crossover for opening a position, but this happens in 5 minutes candle, It acts quickly and opens the position.
Strategy also uses a trailing stop loss feature. You can determine max stoploss, at which point trailing starts and at which distance trailing follows. The green and red lines will show your stoploss levels according to the position strategy enters (green for long, red for short stop loss levels). When price exceeds to the certaing levels of success, stop loss goes with the profitable price (this means, when strategy opens a position, you can put your stop loss to the green/red line in actual trading)
You can fine tune strategy to all assets.
Please write down your comments if you get more successfull about different time zones and different assets. And please tell me your fine tuning levels of this strategy as well.
See you all.
Bitcoin Support BandsSMA and EMA support/resistance bands for Bitcoin. Based on 4 week multiples; 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 2 year, 4 year.
The Real GBTC Premium (Capriole Investments)The real Grayscale Bitcoin (GBTC) premium / discount.
Charts the premium / discount of GBTC trust versus the Bitcoin spot price.
The GBTC premium / discount is frequently calculated incorrectly as it needs to consider the amount of Bitcoin behind each share of GBTC, which changes over time.
This indicator allows for an estimate of that change through time, a more realistic representation of 1 BTC to 1 BTC within GBTC.
If the chart is red, at a discount = can buy a synthetic Bitcoin (GBTC) at a discount to the underlying asset Bitcoin.
If the chart is green, at a premium = can buy a synthetic Bitcoin (GBTC) at a premium to the underlying asset Bitcoin.
The user should also consider that to-date, GBTC charges an annual fee which depletes the value within the GBTC trust. Grayscale wants to convert GBTC to an ETF, but its applications have so far been rejected by the SEC.
If GBTC is converted to an ETF in the future, we might expect that any GBTC discount shown here will be neutralized; potentially offering an additional return to any holder of GBTC, though this cannot be known for sure until such a conversion occurs.
ln(close/20 sma) adjusted for time (BTC)(This indicator was designed for the BTC index chart)
Designed for Bitcoin. Plots the log of the close/20W SMA with a linear offset m*t, where m is the gradient I've chosen and t is the candle index. Anything above 1 is a mania phase/market cycle top. If it peaks around 0.92 and rolls over, it could be a local/market cycle top.
This will obviously not work at all in the long term as Bitcoin will not continue following the trend line on the log plot (you can even see it start to deviate in the Jan-Feb 2021 peaks where the indicator went to 1.15).
It identifies the 2011, 2013 (both of them), 2017 tops as being just above 1. It also identifies the 2019 local peak and 2021 market cycle top at ~0.94.
Feel free to change the gradient or even add a function to curve the straight line eventually. I made this for fun, feel free to use it as you wish.
Pi Cycle Indicators Comparison IndicatorThere are now 3 Pi Cycle Indicators that I am aware of; the original, improved**, and bottom.
This indicator attempts to provide all three indicators in a dingle, easy to view script.
I coded this script to displace the moving averages above and below the price bars for easy viewing. This was accomplished by placing a scaling factor (/# or *#) at the end of the ta.sma or ta.ema functions.
A vertical arrow, purposely posing as a short vertical line, marks the crossing of the long and short MAs for each indicator. These are color coded to match their respective indicators and the long and short MAs are similarly color coded for easy differentiation.
The red colored MAs and arrows above the price line are the Improved Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
The green colored MAs and arrows below the price line are the Original Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
The blue colored MAs and arrows below the green lines and price line are the Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator.
One last feature of the chart is the use of the location function to enable easy comparison of the crossings of each indicator to the indicator itself and to the price. This can be accomplished simply by moving the chart up and down.
**{I should note that while researching this I found that BitcoinMamo turns out to have beat me to the punch on the Improved Indicator Long.Short and Multiplier numbers. He should therefor get the credit for that}
Pi Cycle Bottom IndicatorBack in June 2021, I was able to find two moving averages that crossed when Bitcoin reached it's cycle bottom, similar to Philip Swift's Pi-Cycle Top indicator.
The moving average pair used here was the x0.475 multiple of the 471 MA and the 150 EMA ( EMA to take into account of short term volatility ).
I have a more in-depth analysis and explanation of my findings on my medium page .
Trader Dončić.
Bitcoin Golden Pi CyclesTops are signaled by the fast top MA crossing above the slow top MA, and bottoms are signaled by the slow bottom MA crossing above the fast bottom MA. Alerts can be set on top and bottom prints. Does not repaint.
Similar to the work of Philip Swift regarding the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top, I’ve recently come across a similar mathematically curious ratio that corresponds to Bitcoin cycle bottoms. This ratio was extracted from skirmantas’ Bitcoin Super Cycle indicator . Cycle bottoms are signaled when the 700D SMA crosses above the 137D SMA (because this indicator is closed source, these moving averages were reverse-engineered). Such crossings have historically coincided with the January 2015 and December 2018 bottoms. Also, although yet to be confirmed as a bottom, a cross occurred June 19, 2022 (two days prior to this article)
The original pi cycle uses the doubled 350D SMA and the 111D SMA . As pointed out this gives the original pi cycle top ratio:
350/111 = 3.1532 ≈ π
Also, as noted by Swift, 111 is the best integer for dividing 350 to approximate π. What is mathematically interesting about skirmanta’s ratio?
700/138 = 5.1095
After playing around with this for a while I realized that 5.11 is very close to the product of the two most numerologically significant geometrical constants, π and the golden ratio, ϕ:
πϕ = 5.0832
However, 138 turns out to be the best integer denominator to approximate πϕ:
700/138 = 5.0725 ≈ πϕ
This is what I’ve dubbed the Bitcoin Golden Pi Bottom Ratio.
In the spirit of numerology I must mention that 137 does have some things going for it: it’s a prime number and is very famously almost exactly the reciprocal of the fine structure constant (α is within 0.03% of 1/137).
Now why 350 and 700 and not say 360 and 720? After all, 360 is obviously much more numerologically significant than 350, which is proven by the fact that 360 has its own wikipedia page, and 350 does not! Using 360/115 and 720/142, which are also approximations of π and πϕ respectively, this also calls cycle tops and bottoms.
There are infinitely many such ratios that could work to approximate π and πϕ (although there are a finite number whose daily moving averages are defined). Further analysis is needed to find the range(s) of numerators (the numerator determines the denominator when maintaining the ratio) that correctly produce bottom and top signals.
Crypto addict 7 Accurate Buy & Sell indicators
The below indicators are recommended on the daily chart only.
Yellow Diamond - Possible bottom of the market. This diamond will only flash a few times in a cycle on the BTC chart. This is actually one the BEST buying signal
Green Buy – Buy
Red Sell - Sell / take profits
BIG red cross – Possible top and best signal to sell or take profits
BIG green cross – possible bottom and the best signal to buy
Silver Line – 111 MA
The modified 111 moving average is also a very good indicator. The market will test this support/resistance before the 200 moving average.
Purple line – 200 MA
The modified 200 moving average is a very good indicator. You will get a feel if the markets are in a up or down trend and identifying support and resistance areas. A daily candle close above the line is support and markets can move upwards. A daily close below indicate resistance and markets will move downwards
Red line – Confirmed bullish / bearish cycle!!
Green Line - This MA line indicate the bottom of the cycle - your absolute best entry point for the next cycle. This MA got a 10-year accurate record.
Remember that past history does not guarantee future results.
Rate Of Change Trend Strategy (ROC)This is very simple trend following or momentum strategy. If the price change over the past number of bars is positive, we buy. If the price change over the past number of bars is negative, we sell. This is surprisingly robust, simple, and effective especially on trendy markets such as cryptos.
Works for many markets such as:
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
SP:SPX
NASDAQ:NDX
NASDAQ:TSLA
