7-10 flattener tradeIn the budget speech for FY 2023, market borrowing of 14.95 lakh crore from the market. In the Feb MPC meeting, the RBI brought down its estimates of growth and inflation potentially signaling that economy is/will go through a demand slowdown.
Now in a slowing economy, the govt. finances will be affected. Therefore, to bring back the economy on the fiscal consolidation so that sovereign bond ratings are not hit, the Indian govt. must figure out a way
1. Lower its interest payments in the face of increasing public expenditure on creating public infrastructure (read roads/highways etc. ). One simple way is to go down the yield curve in lower maturities to bring down the interest costs.
Keeping in mind (1) above, it was not difficult to expect a borrowing schedule where the shorter tenors will form a bigger percentage of the net issuance by the government.
In fact, if you look at the issuance calendar for securities below the tenor of 10 yrs (which is 2,5,7 yrs), you will find that itself comprises of ~31% of total borrowings.
Therefore, due to increased pressure on the shorter tenors and relatively less pressure on 10 yr bond yield, we can expect the yields spreads to compress in 7-10 yr region of the yield curve.
This script is written to track the same yield spread compression across 7 & 10 yr tenor.
India
Volume x Price in Crores + RVolScript is designed predominantly for Indian users. Many are used to looking at numbers in lakhs and crores vs millions and billions, this provides a volume figure in rupee crores.
Formula is last close_price x volume / 1 cr or (close_price x volume /10000000). The second figure is the simple moving average (default to 20sma ) again in rupee crores. The third is the relative volume - todays volume / 20 day moving average.
Helpful especially when putting on a trade for a thinly traded stock. It is a quick gauge to how large or small one would want to buy or avoid. Helps manage risk. Also, great to see large volumes in crores to gauge institutional buys or sells.
On 10/NOV/21 - In the chart displayed here, Titan volumes are on average quite substantial as one can see. The 20 day moving average is 550 CR+. 10/NOV volumes are shown as 226 CR and the RVOL is 0.41 (226/550).
Cvwap-Pvwap 2.0A simple vwap based Intraday trend indicator.
Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) - the average price weighted by volume, starts when trading opens and ends when it closes. This can help institutions buy or sell in large orders, without disturbing the market.
After buying or selling, institutions compare instrument price to closing VWAP values at end of the day.
For big financial institutions;
A buy order executed below the VWAP value, considered a good fill because the security was bought at a below average price.
A sell order executed above the VWAP would be deemed a good fill because it was sold at an above average price.
Simple price based moving average is not helpful for them; = as it doesn't incorporates volume traded. Hence - VWAP :)
So how it helps us in decoding the IntraDay-trend? - Through a 2 day vwap co-relation.
So, Closing value of previous day vwap = Pvwap
Today's running vwap = Cvwap
Defining the IntraDay Trend:
Moderately Bullish = candle closing price above Pvwap but below Cvwap
Super Bullish = Closing price is above both (Cvwap and Pvwap)
Moderately Bearish = Closing price is above Cvwap but below Pvwap
Super Bearish = Closing Price is below both (Cvwap and Pvwap)
A big gap between the Cvwap and the candle closing price defines the strong participation from institutions in that direction. (Strong Trend)
Moving with the smart money, in the overall trend is a wise decision for any intraday trader and this helps at its best.
