BTCUSD Price prediction based on central bank liquidityIn recent months the idea that Bitcoin prices are increasingly linked to liquidity provided by central banks has gained strength. Multiple opinion leaders in the bitcoin space have shared their thoughts to explain why this is happening and why it makes sense. Some of these people I'm talking about are Preston Pysh, Dr. Jeff Ross, Steven McClurg, Lynn Alden among others.
The reality is that the correlation between market liquidity, measured as Assets held by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central bank, and Bitcoin prices is high. This made me wonder whether a regression between "market liquidity" and BTCUSD prices made sense in order to understand where Bitcoin prices are in relation to the liquidity in the market. After several trials I ended up fitting a polynomial regression of degree 5 between Market Liquidity and BTCUSD prices since 2013. This regression resulted in r-squared value of 90.93%. I initially visualized the results in python notebooks but then I thought it would be cool to be able to see them in real-time in tradingview.
That's where this script comes handy...
This script takes the coefficients and intercept from the polynomial regression I built and applies them to the "market_liquidity" index. In addition, it adds upper and lower bound lines to the prediction based on a 95% confidence interval. As you will see, particularly since 2020, the price of bitcoin has rarely been above or below the lines representing the 95% confidence interval. When price has actually crossed these lines it's been in moments where Bitcoin was highly overbought or oversold. Therefore this indicator could be used to understand when it's a good moment to enter or exit the market based on central bank fundamentals.
Here's the detailed step-by-step description of what the script does
1) It defines the coefficients obtained from running the regression betweeen "market liquidity" and BTCUSD. Market liquidity is defined as:
Market liquidity = FRED:WALCL + FX_IDX:JPYUSD*FRED:JPNASSETS + FX:EURUSD*FRED:ECBASSETSW - FRED:RRPONTSYD - FRED:WTREGEN
2) It defines a scale factor. The reason for this is that coefficients from the regression are very small numbers, given the huge numbers of the value of assets held by central banks. Pinescript doesn't support numbers with many decimals and rounds them to 0, so the coefficients had to be scaled up in order to be able to calculate the regression results.
3) It calculates market liquity with the formula defined above. Market liquidity is calculated in US Dollars.
4) It calculates the predicted BTCUSD price based on the coefficients and the market liquidity values.
5) It scales down the values by the same factor used to scale the coefficients up
6) It defines the standard deviation of the "potential_btcusd_price_scaled" and the actual BTCUSD prices.
7) It defines upper and lower bounds to the BTCUSD price prediction using a z-score of 1.96, which is equivalent to 95% confidence interval.
8) Lastly it plots the BTCUSD price prediction (orange) and the upper (red) and lower(green) confidence intervals.
The script can be updated as the correlation of BTCUSD to central bank assets changes (the slope values can be updated).
How to use it:
When actual BTCUSD price (blue line in the chart) crosses over the red line (upper bound) or crosses under the green line (lower bound) it should be taken as a sign that the price of BTCUSD may be overvalued or undervalued based on the value of assets held by major central banks.
Recherche dans les scripts pour "tradingview+金龙指数"
comm_idxThis script displays information about the components of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. The index is based on futures contracts in the categories of agricultural products, softs commodities, livestock, energies, industrial metals, and precious metals. The statistics displayed in the table are:
change: 1-day % change
from ma: the % change from a moving average
corr idx: correlation of the contract to the GSCI
The lengths for the moving average and correlation statistic can be set using the inputs.
See the script source for the symbols used for each commodity. Although most of the symbols correspond to the actual futures contract used to compute the index, LME contracts are not available on tradingview. Hence, corresponding HKEX contracts are used for the industrial metals.
CVD - Cumulative Volume Delta Candles (old version)An old session of CVD from Tradingview. I noticed that the latest version of CVD has errors in calculations between different timeframes and with other similar indicators by other authors.
RS RatingHello everyone.
The RS Rating (or Relative Strenght Rating) is a metric that tracks a stock's price performance relative to the rest of the market. Specifically, it looks at a stock's relative strength over the last 52 weeks.
It allows you to identify at a glance stocks that are outperforming the market and may be poised for further gains.
Designed for break-out traders, trend follower, value investors, the RS Rating can help you identify promising opportunities and make informed investment decisions.
The Rating stands as follow:
- From 1 (worst) to 99 (best)
- 99 rating means the stock is outperforming 99% of all stocks in terms of relative share price performance over the last 52 weeks.
The RS Rating is accompanied by the RS line which is a representation of the progress of the asset against the comparative symbol. (Here SP500)
Of course this script is inspired by the IBD rating system.
The results may be equivalent but it is not guaranteed.
This indicator proposes a scoring system in the style of the one proposed by IBD.
Indeed for an optimal result, it would be necessary to compare the relative performance of all actions, which is not yet possible on PineScript.
Here is the formula for calculating the score:
RS Score = 40% * P3 + 20% * P6 + 20% * P9 + 20% * P12
With
P3 = Performance over the last 3 months
P6 = Performance over the last 6 months
P9 = Performance over the last 9 months
P12 = Performance over the last 12 months
There is no equivalent solution for the moment on TradingView.
The rating score will only appear on the daily timeframe.
For now it's my pleasure to share!
Pressure Volume by MolnarThe Pressure Volume script is a technical indicator that is used to identify buying and selling pressure in a market based on changes in volume. The indicator calculates the average volume over a specified lookback period and then calculates the percentage change in volume for each bar. If the percentage change in volume exceeds a user-defined threshold, then the indicator signals the presence of buying or selling pressure.
To use the script, you simply need to add it to a chart in TradingView. The script allows you to adjust two input parameters: the lookback period and the threshold percentage. The lookback period is the number of bars to use when calculating the average volume, and the threshold percentage is the amount by which the current bar's volume must exceed the average volume in order to trigger a buying or selling pressure signal.
When the script detects buying pressure, it displays a green triangle above the bar, and when it detects selling pressure, it displays a red triangle below the bar. You can adjust the size of the triangles using the "size" input parameter.
It's important to note that the Pressure Volume script is just one tool among many that traders use to analyze the market. It should be used in conjunction with other indicators and analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions.
Oliver Velez IndicatorOliver Velez is a well-known trader and educator who has developed multiple trading strategies. One of them is the 20-200sma strategy, which is a basic moving average crossover strategy. The strategy involves using two simple moving averages (SMAs) - a short-term SMA with a period of 20 and a long-term SMA with a period of 200 - on a 2-minute timeframe chart.
When the short-term SMA crosses above the long-term SMA, it signals a potential bullish trend and traders may look for opportunities to enter a long position. Conversely, when the short-term SMA crosses below the long-term SMA, it signals a potential bearish trend and traders may look for opportunities to enter a short position.
Traders using this strategy may also look for additional confirmations, such as price action signals or other technical indicators, before entering or exiting a trade. It is important to note that no trading strategy can guarantee profits, and traders should always use risk management techniques to limit potential losses.
This script is an implementation of the 2 SMA's (can also choose other types of MA's), with Elephant Bar Indicator (EBI) and the Tail Bars Indicator in TradingView.
The Elephant Bar Indicator is a technical indicator used in trading to identify potential trend reversals in the market. It is named after the large size of the bullish or bearish candlestick that it represents. The Tail Bars Indicator is a pattern recognition technique that identifies candlestick patterns with long tails or wicks.
The script starts by defining the input parameters for both indicators. For the Elephant Bar Indicator, the user inputs the lookback period and the size multiplier. For the Tail Bars Indicator, the user inputs the tail ratio and opposite wick ratio.
Next, the script calculates the moving averages of the closing price over the defined short and long periods using the Moving Average function. The script then calculates the average candle size and volume over the lookback period.
The script then identifies the Elephant Bars and Tail Bars using the input parameters and additional conditions. For Elephant Bars, the script identifies bullish and bearish bars that meet certain criteria, such as a size greater than the average candle size and volume greater than the average volume.
For Tail Bars, the script identifies bullish and bearish bars that have long tails or wicks and meet certain criteria such as opposite wick size less than or equal to the tail size multiplied by the input opposite wick ratio.
Finally, the script plots the Elephant Bar and Tail Bar signals on the chart using different colors and shapes. The script also plots the moving averages and Keltner Channels to help traders identify potential trend reversals.
It is still under development, so please, if someone has ideas to add, more than welcome
[JL] Supertrend Zone Pivot Point with zigzag fibThis is an open-source Pine script that generates a Supertrend Zone Pivot Point with Zigzag Fib indicator for TradingView. The indicator displays the Supertrend Zone, pivot points, and Fibonacci levels on the chart.
One of the unique features of this indicator is that it uses a Zigzag that does not repaint, ensuring accurate high and low points for the pivot points.
Another feature is that when the Supertrend is in an uptrend, only the highest points are taken as pivot points, and when it's in a downtrend, only the lowest points are taken as pivot points.
The Fibonacci levels are calculated based on the previous high and low pivot points, with labels displaying the corresponding levels on the chart.
The indicator also includes options to show/hide the Zigzag and Fibonacci levels.
Overall, this indicator is useful for identifying key pivot points and Fibonacci levels in the Supertrend Zone, providing valuable information for traders to make informed decisions.
Rsi strategy for BTC with (Rsi SPX)
I hope this strategy is just an idea and a starting point, I use the correlation of the Sp500 with the Btc, this does not mean that this correlation will exist forever!. I love Trading view and I'm learning to program, I find correlations very interesting and here is a simple strategy.
This is a trading strategy script written in Pine Script language for use in TradingView. Here is a brief overview of the strategy:
The script uses the RSI (Relative Strength Index) technical indicator with a period of 14 on two securities: the S&P 500 (SPX) and the symbol corresponding to the current chart (presumably Bitcoin, based on the variable name "Btc_1h_fixed"). The RSI is plotted on the chart for both securities.
The script then sets up two trading conditions using the RSI values:
A long entry condition: when the RSI for the current symbol crosses above the RSI for the S&P 500, a long trade is opened using the "strategy.entry" function.
A short entry condition: when the RSI for the current symbol crosses below the RSI for the S&P 500, a short trade is opened using the "strategy.entry" function.
The script also includes a take profit input parameter that allows the user to set a percentage profit target for closing the trade. The take profit is set using the "strategy.exit" function.
Overall, the strategy aims to take advantage of divergences in RSI values between the current symbol and the S&P 500 by opening long or short trades accordingly. The take profit parameter allows the user to set a specific profit target for each trade. However, the script does not include any stop loss or risk management features, which should be considered when implementing the strategy in a real trading scenario.
Easy RSI by nnamWhat Does this Indicator Do?
The Easy RSI Indicator color codes candles based on their RSI Value vs. Open / Close (Red / Green). It plots the current price and current RSI value on the chart in real-time. Additionally, when the RSI Value is in an oversold or overbought condition, it plots that signal on the chart in real-time.
The initial candle color is the standard Red / Green Tradingview color, but a Gradient is added to the color which either darkens or lightens the color based on the RSI Value.
As seen in the screenshot below, the higher the RSI Value, the brighter the Green Color is. The lower the RSI Value, the brighter the Red Color is.
The current Price and current RSI Value are both plotted on the chart by default, but can be optionally switched off by the trader.
As seen in the screenshot below, the prices and RSI Values are easily seen while visually tracking the price in real-time.
RSI Overbought Values are plotted when the Overbought condition is triggered. The Default is RED for Overbought and GREEN for Oversold.
As seen in the screenshot below, with all three labels turned on under the input settings (these are ON by default) you can see the overbought condition, the current RSI Value, and current price all in one centralized area. Oversold Values are also plotted when turned on under the input settings.
As shown in the screenshot below, the candle is GREEN (as evident by the green candle outline) but the RSI Value is low and shows lower than average relative strength. This turns the bar color ORANGE vs, GREEN showing that the relative strength of the move is subpar.
As shown on the screenshot below, if the trader has the standard Tradingview Price label switched on (in the Tradingview Chart Settings), the color of the bar is also translated to the price are for an easy to recognize RSI Value just by looking at the price. Even if the current candle is RED, when the RSI is higher than lower, the color will be green / greenish and even if the current candle is GREEN, when the RSI Value is lower than higher, the color will be red-ish / orange in color giving the user a quick view of RSI Value.
If you have any questions or feature requests for this Indicator please do not hesitate to reach out and ask.
GOOD LUCK trading!!
~nnamdert
MFE & MAE ToolThis is a simple implementation of the MFE/MAE Tool for TradingView.
It's a quite powerful tool and pretty useful in systematic trading, but I don't see many trader using it these days.
It's created for EMA cross, but you can easily change it to use your own signals.
What is MAE/MFE Tool
MAE stands for Maximum Adverse Excursion - Worst P&L during the trade
MFE stands for Maximum Favorable Excursion - Best P&L during the trade
The idea is pretty simple. We take only signals without any position management or exits and measure the best/worst P&L for the next X bars after the signal was.
The primary use case for it is to understand how good your signals are .
If you'll add complicated money management tools, exits, and SL/PT to your strategy, it brings quite a lot of noise. After that, it's pretty tricky to understand if your signals bring much information about future price movements. In other words, bad money management can ruin good signals, and you might discard the entire strategy without knowing that. So this is why I think it's important to check the quality of your signals separately.
Another simple way to use it is to estimate where to put SL/PT
In this example, we're computing MAE/MFE in percent. We're plotting it both on the chart and computing some statistics based on it. This is why it's pretty easy to get a quick understanding of what is your SL/PT should be.
MAE/MFE tool consists of a:
Chart - it displays a point for every signal. Long/Short trades can have different colors. On hover you'll see details for this signal.
Table with stats - we're computing basic metrics for these Signals like average/min/median/max MAE/MFE, number of trades, and how many trades hit selected SL and PT. Stats are also separated by the side so you can see performance separately for longs and shorts.
The indicator is highly customizable, you can configure:
Bars you want to use to compute MAE/MFE
Side selection
SL and R:R
Styling of the chart
Position and style of the table
Parameters for the EMA
EMA cross and its parameter were selected randomly, so don't estimate to see a great performance here.
MFE/MAE tool is a pretty powerful concept. At some point, I'll create an entire article in my blog with more examples and descriptions.
Thanks to @MUQWISHI for helping code it.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not indicate future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Flat Market and Low ADX Indicator [CHE]Why use the Flat Market and Low ADX Indicator ?
Flat markets, where prices remain within a narrow range for an extended period, can be both critical and dangerous for traders. In a flat market, the price action becomes less predictable, and traders may struggle to find profitable trading opportunities. As a result, many traders may decide to take a break from the market until a clear trend emerges.
However, flat markets can also be dangerous for traders who continue to trade despite the lack of clear trends. In the absence of a clear direction, traders may be tempted to take larger risks or make impulsive trades in an attempt to capture small profits. Such behavior can quickly lead to significant losses, especially if the market suddenly breaks out of its flat range, causing traders to experience large drawdowns.
Therefore, it is essential to approach flat markets with caution and to have a clear trading plan that incorporates strategies for both trending and flat markets. Traders may also use technical indicators, such as the Flat Market and Low ADX Indicator, to help identify flat markets and determine when it is appropriate to enter or exit a position.
The confluence between flat markets and low ADX readings can further increase the risk of trading during these periods. The ADX (Average Directional Index) is a technical indicator used to measure the strength of a trend. A low ADX reading indicates that the market is in a consolidation phase, which can coincide with a flat market. When a flat market occurs during a period of low ADX, traders should be even more cautious, as there is little to no directional bias in the market. In this situation, traders may want to consider waiting for a clear trend to emerge or using range-bound trading strategies to avoid taking excessive risks.
Introduction:
Pine Script is a programming language used for developing custom technical analysis indicators and trading strategies in TradingView. This particular script is an indicator designed to identify flat markets and low ADX conditions. In this description, we will delve deeper into the functionality of this script and how it can be used to improve trading decisions.
Description:
The first input in the script is the length of the moving average used for calculating the center line. This moving average is used to define the high and low range of the market. The script then calculates the middle value of the range by taking the double exponential moving average (EMA) of the high, low, and close prices.
The script then determines whether the market is flat by comparing the middle value of the range with the high and low values. If the middle value is greater than the high value or less than the low value, the market is not flat. If the middle value is within the high and low range, the script considers the market to be flat. The script also uses RSI filter settings to further confirm if the market is flat or not. If the RSI value is between the RSI min and max values, then the market is considered flat. If the RSI value is outside this range, the market is not considered flat.
The script also calculates the ADX (Average Directional Index) to determine whether it's in a low area. ADX is a technical indicator used to measure the strength of a trend. The script uses the ADX filter settings to define the ADX threshold value. If the ADX value is below the threshold value, the script considers the market to be in a low ADX area.
The script provides various input options to customize the display settings, including the option to show the flat market and low ADX areas. Users can choose their preferred colors for the flat market and low ADX areas and adjust the transparency levels to suit their needs.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, this Pine Script indicator is designed to identify flat market and low ADX conditions, which can help traders make informed trading decisions. The script uses a range of inputs and calculations to determine the market direction, RSI filter, and ADX filter. By customizing the display settings, users can adjust the indicator to suit their preferences and improve their trading strategies. Overall, this script can be a valuable tool for traders looking to gain an edge in the markets.
Acknowledgments:
Thanks to the Pine Script™ v5 User Manual www.tradingview.com
Profile Any Indicator [Kioseff Trading]Create a visible-range profile for almost any indicator!
Hello!
This script "Profile Any Indicator" allows you to create a visible-range profile for *almost* any indicator hosted on TradingView.
Therefore, the only requirement:
1. Indicator must have a retrievable plot value.
Should your indicator have a retrievable plot value (most indicators do), you can use this script to create a visible-range profile of its values!
Consequently, the profile's always oriented to the left-most or right-most side of your chart - updating as you scroll left or right.
The image above shows me using the indicator to create a profile for MACD. I am largely zoomed out and the profile has adjusted to chart orientation.
Let's zoom in and see what happens!
Voila!
The indicator adjusted to my chart positioning and created a new visible-range profile! No manual adjustments are required (:
Instructions
1. Load the indicator you'd like to profile on the chart.
The image above shows me applying the OBV indicator to the chart. Additionally, the "Profile Any Indicator" script is also loaded on the chart, instructing me to add an indicator to its settings.
2. From the settings for "Profile Any indicator", locate the "Indicator" setting and select the indicator you would like to profile.
The image above shows me selecting the OBV indicator in the settings for "Profile Any Indicator".
Once steps 1 and 2 are complete you'll have a visible-range profile for the selected indicator on your chart!
The image above shows the completion of the process.
3. Merge the indicator pane or select to plot the selected indicator in the current pane.
From here, you can select to plot the value of the selected indicator in the current pane or merge the selected indicator's pane (which must stay on the chart) with the pane designated to the "Profile Any Indicator" script.
The image above shows the two panes merged.
The image above shows the two panes separate. Alternatively, in the settings for "Profile Any Indicator", I selected to plot OBV in its pane.
You can select to populate the visible-range profile on the right of the chart!
Additionally, you can modify the POC line, value area %, and, essentially, any parameter you'd find for a volume-profile-like indicator!
Thanks for checking this out (:
Price Legs & Fib Projections: Fibonacci Confluence-Plots price legs based on two user input lookback numbers. Smaller number for small legs, larger number for large legs.
-Plots Fib projections of these price legs, above and below; User can input four independent fib levels or standard deviation levels
## User Inputs ##
~Show visible chart only; Show price leg labels (time and price); show small legs (fibs and/or boxes); show large legs (fibs and/or boxes)
~Input 4 Fibonacci levels or measured move levels. Toggle each level on/off
~toggle on/off Fib levels ABOVE or fib levels BELOW
~extend Fib levels 'X' bars to the right, or toggle on/off 'Full Extend' to the right
## Tips & Notes ##
-use 'Full Extend' together with 'visible chart only' if searching for multiple confluence of Fib levels.
-can quickly get very cluttered, but the aim in writing this was to try to find area of confluence at a glance amongst a mess of levels, then hide the indicator and study/note that area.
-if lines don't print toward the left hand side of the chart you've likely reached the max line limit set by Tradingview.
-Fib level input of 1.0 represents zero % extension above the high or below the low of the leg; 2.0 represents 100% extension.
1hr S&P: Visible chart only; large legs only; 50%, 100%, 150%, 200% Fib extensions; Above only; lines extended fully to the right:
Usage notes; 15m S&P: Small & Large price legs; partial extend; all fib levels above/below:
Central Bank Dark Energy TracerCentral Bank Dark Energy Tracer (CBDE Tracer)
What makes The Universe grow at an accelerating pace?
Dark Energy.
What makes The Economy grow at an accelerating pace?
Debt.
Debt is the Dark Energy of The Economy.
The CBDE Tracer is a tool that tracks currency assets in US dollars that can be scaled to fit other assets on TradingView.
The example provided is QQQ with scale factors and offsets applied that best curve fit to the most recent price action.
The white line is non-US assets from the following central banks:
-JPY (Japan)
-CNY (China)
-UK (British Pound)
-SNB (Swiss National Bank)
-ECB (European Central Bank )
The lime green line is for US Federal Reserve data including a midpoint of WRESBAL and the fed liquidity calculation (WALCL - WTREGEN) and then subtracting RRPONTSYD
The purple line is the average of the two, US assets, and non-US.
The settings can be configured so that only the average is showing, which should the closest aggregate of all liquidity data.
VANILLA BUY SELLThis script uses three components:-
USEFUL MA by @ALEXGROVER
SUPERTREND INDICATOR(3 supertrend with different ATR and multiplier) provided by tradingview.
VIX FEAR GAUGE by @bizkitbr
To make it easy and line free, supertrend lines have been removed but the color fill has been kept. This makes the chart clean.
For option traders, direction and momentum is everything. Hence, two need to be really clear:-
a) BUY OR SELL
b) Whether momentum exists of not
While rise is charecterised by a steady pace, a fall is charecterized by a rapid decline.
So in order to make the best use of of the charecters, a careful interpretation and backtesting has been done to enable buy sell only when vix conditions are met.
BUY SIGNAL
A buy signal is generated on following conditions:-
a)PRICE CLOSE ABOVE USEFUL MA
B)ALL THREE SUPERTRENDS ARE GREEN
C)VIXFIX IS BELOW 0.18.
SELL SIGNAL
This is generated when following is met:-
A) PRICE BELOW USEFUL MA
B)ALL THREE SUPERTRENDS ARE RED
C)VIXFIX IS ABOBE 0.18
ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL BACKGROUND COLOR CHANGE PROVIDED FOR AREAS WHERE THERE IS A BUY OR SELL.
Either labels can be used or background colours referred for seeing buy or sell.
Fair Value Strategy UltimateThis is a strategy using an index's (SPX, NDX, RUT) Fair Value derived from Net Liquidity.
Net Liquidity function is simply: Fed Balance Sheet - Treasury General Account - Reverse Repo Balance
Formula for calculating the fair value of and Index using Net Liquidity looks like this: net_liquidity/1000000000/scalar - subtractor
The Index Fair Value is then subtracted from the Index value which creates an oscillating diff value.
When diff is greater than the overbought threshold, Index is considered overbought and we go short/sell.
When diff is less than the oversold signal, Index is considered oversold and we cover/buy.
The net liquidity values I calculate outside of TradingView. If you'd like the strategy to work for future dates, you'll need to update the reference to my NetLiquidityLibrary , which I update daily.
Parameters:
Index: SPX, NDX, RUT
Strategy: Short Only, Long Only, Long/Short
Inverse (bool): check if using an inverse ETF to go long instead of short.
Scalar (float)
Subtractor (int)
Overbought Threshold (int)
Oversold Threshold (int)
Start After Date: When the strategy should start trading
Close Date: Day to close open trades. I just like it to get complete results rather than the strategy ending with open trades.
Optimal Parameters:
I've optimized the parameters for each index using the python backtesting library and they are as follows =>
SPX
Scalar: 1.1
Subtractor: 1425
OB Threshold: 0
OS Threshold: -175
NDX
Scalar: 0.5
Subtractor: 250
OB Threshold: 0
OS Threshold: -25
RUT
Scalar: 3.2
Subtractor: 50
OB Threshold: 25
OS Threshold: -25
