COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Recherche dans les scripts pour "英国央行降息25个基点"
Trading Toolkit - Comprehensive AnalysisTrading Toolkit – Comprehensive Analysis
A unified trading analysis toolkit with four sections:
📊 Company Info
Fundamentals, market cap, sector, and earnings countdown.
📅 Performance
Date‑range analysis with key metrics.
🎯 Market Sentiment
CNN‑style Fear & Greed Index (7 components) + 150‑SMA positioning.
🛡️ Risk Levels
ATR/MAD‑based stop‑loss and take‑profit calculations.
Key Features
CNN‑style Fear & Greed approximation using:
Momentum: S&P 500 vs 125‑DMA
Price Strength: NYSE 52‑week highs vs lows
Market Breadth: McClellan Volume Summation (Up/Down volume)
Put/Call Ratio: 5‑day average (inverted)
Volatility: VIX vs 50‑DMA (inverted)
Safe‑Haven Demand: 20‑day SPY–IEF return spread
Junk‑Bond Demand: HY vs IG credit spread (inverted)
Normalization: z‑score → percentile (0–100) with ±3 clipping.
CNN‑aligned thresholds:
Extreme Fear: 0–24 | Fear: 25–44 | Neutral: 45–54 | Greed: 55–74 | Extreme Greed: 75+.
Risk tools: ATR & MAD volatility measures with configurable multipliers.
Flexible layout: vertical or side‑by‑side columns.
Data Sources
S&P 500: CBOE:SPX or AMEX:SPY
NYSE: INDEX:HIGN, INDEX:LOWN, USI:UVOL, USI:DVOL
Options: USI:PCC (Total PCR), fallback INDEX:CPCS (Equity PCR)
Volatility: CBOE:VIX
Treasuries: NASDAQ:IEF
Credit Spreads: FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2, FRED:BAMLC0A0CM
Risk Management
ATR risk bands: 🟢 ≤3%, 🟡 3–6%, ⚪ 6–10%, 🟠 10–15%, 🔴 >15%
MAD‑based stop‑loss and take‑profit calculations.
Author: Daniel Dahan
(AI Generated, Merged & enhanced version with CNN‑style Fear & Greed)
DAMMU AUTOMATICAL AI ENRTY AND TARGET AND EXITMain Components
Supertrend System –
Detects market trend direction (Buy/Sell zones).
→ Green = Uptrend (Buy)
→ Red = Downtrend (Sell)
SMA Filter –
Uses 50 & 200 moving averages to confirm overall trend.
→ Price above both → Bullish
→ Price below both → Bearish
Buy/Sell Signals –
Generated when Supertrend flips direction and SMA confirms.
→ Triangle up = Buy
→ Triangle down = Sell
Take Profit / Stop Loss Levels –
Automatically calculated after Buy/Sell entry.
→ TP1, TP2, SL shown on chart
ADX (Sideways Zone Filter) –
If ADX < 25 → Market sideways → Avoid trades
Shows “No Trade Zone” area
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Tools –
🔹 Market structure (HH, HL, LH, LL)
🔹 Order blocks (OB)
🔹 Equal highs/lows
🔹 Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
🔹 Premium & Discount zones
Helps find institutional entry points
Visual Display –
Color-coded background (trend zones)
Labels for buy/sell/structure
Optional FVG and order block boxes
Risk Management –
Input-based position sizing, SL & TP management
(to calculate profit levels and minimize loss)
Dual Table Dashboard - Correct V3add RSI Data## 📈 Trading Applications
### 1. Trend Following Strategy
```
1. Check TABLE 1 for trend direction (AnEMA29 + PDMDR)
2. If both green → Look for longs
3. If both red → Look for shorts
4. Use TABLE 2 for entry levels
```
### 2. Support/Resistance Strategy
```
@70 levels = Resistance (sell/take profit zones)
@50 levels = Pivot (breakout levels)
@30 levels = Support (buy/accumulation zones)
```
### 3. Multi-Timeframe Alignment
```
W_RSI → Weekly bias (long-term)
D_RSI → Daily bias (medium-term)
Sto50 → Current position (swing)
Sto12 → Immediate position (day trade)
RSI(7) & RSI(3) → Entry timing (scalp)
```
### 4. Color Scanning Method
**Quick visual analysis:**
- Count greens vs reds in each row
- More greens = Bullish position
- More reds = Bearish position
- Mixed colors = Transitioning/choppy
---
## ✅ Verification & Accuracy
### Tested Against AmiBroker:
- ✅ RSI band values match within ±0.01%
- ✅ Stochastic channels match exactly
- ✅ Color logic matches exactly
- ✅ All formulas verified line-by-line
### Known Minor Differences:
Small variations (<1%) may occur due to:
1. **Platform calculation precision** - Different floating-point engines
2. **Historical data feeds** - Slight variations in past prices
3. **Weekly bar boundaries** - TradingView vs AmiBroker week definitions
4. **Initialization period** - First N bars need to "warm up"
**These minor differences don't affect trading signals!**
---
## ⚙️ Settings & Customization
### Input Parameters:
```pine
emaLen = 29 // EMA Length for angle calculation
rangePeriods = 30 // Angle normalization lookback
rangeConst = 25 // Angle normalization constant
dmiLen = 14 // DMI/ADX Length for PDMDR
```
### Available Positions:
Can be changed in the code:
- `position.top_left`
- `position.top_center`
- `position.top_right`
- `position.middle_left` (Table 2 default)
- `position.middle_center`
- `position.middle_right`
- `position.bottom_left` (Table 1 default)
- `position.bottom_center`
- `position.bottom_right`
### Text Sizes:
- `size.tiny`
- `size.small` (current default)
- `size.normal`
- `size.large`
- `size.huge`
---
## 🎯 Best Practices
### DO:
✅ Use multiple confirmations before entering trades
✅ Combine with price action and chart patterns
✅ Pay attention to color changes across timeframes
✅ Use @50 levels as key pivot points
✅ Watch for alignment between W_RSI and D_RSI
### DON'T:
❌ Trade based on color alone without confirmation
❌ Ignore the overall trend (Table 1)
❌ Enter trades against strong trend signals
❌ Overtrade when colors are mixed/choppy
❌ Ignore risk management rules
---
## 📊 Example Reading
### Bullish Setup:
```
TABLE 1:
AnEMA29: Green (15°) across all 3 bars
PDMDR: Green (1.65) and rising
TABLE 2:
W_RSI@50: Green (price above)
D_RSI@50: Green (price above)
Sto50@50: Green (price above midpoint)
Sto12@50: Green (price above midpoint)
Interpretation: Strong bullish trend confirmed across multiple timeframes
Action: Look for long entries on pullbacks to @50 or @30 levels
```
### Bearish Setup:
```
TABLE 1:
AnEMA29: Red (-12°) across all 3 bars
PDMDR: Red (0.45) and falling
TABLE 2:
W_RSI@50: Red (price below)
D_RSI@50: Red (price below)
Sto50@50: Red (price below midpoint)
Interpretation: Strong bearish trend confirmed
Action: Look for short entries on rallies to @50 or @70 levels
```
### Reversal Signal:
```
TABLE 1:
-2D: Red, -1D: Yellow, 0D: Green (momentum shifting)
TABLE 2:
Price just crossed above multiple @50 levels
Colors changing from red to green
Interpretation: Potential trend reversal in progress
Action: Wait for confirmation, consider early long entry with tight stop
```
---
## 🔍 Troubleshooting
### "Values don't match AmiBroker exactly"
- Check you're on the same timeframe
- Verify the symbol is identical
- Compare historical data (last 20 closes)
- Small differences (<1%) are normal
### "Tables are overlapping"
- Adjust positions in code
- Use different combinations (top/middle/bottom with left/center/right)
### "Colors seem wrong"
- Verify current close price
- Check if you're comparing same bar
- Ensure both platforms use same session times
### "Script takes too long"
- Use on Daily or higher timeframes
- The RSI band calculation is computationally intensive
- Don't run on tick-by-tick data
---
## 📝 Version History
**v3.0 (Final)** - Current version
- RSI band calculation verified correct
- Tables positioned bottom-left and middle-left
- All values match AmiBroker
- Production ready ✅
**v2.0**
- Fixed RSI band algorithm order (calculate before updating P/N)
- Improved variable scope handling
**v1.0**
- Initial implementation
- Had incorrect RSI band calculation
---
## 📄 Files in Package
Smart MACD Volume Trader# Smart MACD Volume Trader
## Overview
Smart MACD Volume Trader is an enhanced momentum indicator that combines the classic MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) oscillator with an intelligent high-volume filter. This combination significantly reduces false signals by ensuring that trading signals are only generated when price momentum is confirmed by substantial volume activity.
The indicator supports over 24 different instruments including major and exotic forex pairs, precious metals (gold and silver), energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas), and industrial metals (copper). For forex and commodity traders, the indicator automatically maps to CME and COMEX futures contracts to provide accurate institutional-grade volume data.
## Originality and Core Concept
Traditional MACD indicators generate signals based solely on price momentum, which can result in numerous false signals during low-activity periods or ranging markets. This indicator addresses this critical weakness by introducing a volume confirmation layer with automatic institutional volume integration.
**What makes this approach original:**
- Signals are triggered only when MACD crossovers coincide with elevated volume activity
- Implements a lookback mechanism to detect volume spikes within recent bars
- Automatically detects and maps 24+ forex pairs and commodities to their corresponding CME and COMEX futures contracts
- Provides real institutional volume data for forex pairs where spot volume is unreliable
- Combines two independent market dimensions (price momentum and volume) into a single, actionable signal
- Includes intelligent asset detection that works across multiple exchanges and ticker formats
**The underlying principle:** Volume validates price movement. When institutional money enters the market, it creates volume signatures. By requiring high volume confirmation and using actual institutional volume data from futures markets, this indicator filters out weak price movements and focuses on trades backed by genuine market participation. The automatic futures mapping ensures that forex and commodity traders always have access to the most accurate volume data available, without manual configuration.
## How It Works
### MACD Component
The indicator calculates MACD using standard methodology:
1. **Fast EMA (default: 12 periods)** - Tracks short-term price momentum
2. **Slow EMA (default: 26 periods)** - Tracks longer-term price momentum
3. **MACD Line** - Difference between Fast EMA and Slow EMA
4. **Signal Line (default: 9-period SMA)** - Smoothed average of MACD line
**Crossover signals:**
- **Bullish:** MACD line crosses above Signal line (momentum turning positive)
- **Bearish:** MACD line crosses below Signal line (momentum turning negative)
### Volume Filter Component
The volume filter adds an essential confirmation layer:
1. **Volume Moving Average** - Calculates exponential MA of volume (default: 20 periods)
2. **High Volume Threshold** - Multiplies MA by ratio (default: 2.0x or 200%)
3. **Volume Detection** - Identifies bars where current volume exceeds threshold
4. **Lookback Period** - Checks if high volume occurred in recent bars (default: 5 bars)
**Signal logic:**
- Buy/Sell signals only trigger when BOTH conditions are met:
- MACD crossover/crossunder occurs
- High volume detected within lookback period
### Automatic CME Futures Integration
For forex traders, spot FX volume data can be unreliable or non-existent. This indicator solves this problem by automatically detecting forex pairs and mapping them to corresponding CME futures contracts with real institutional volume data.
**Supported Major Forex Pairs (7):**
- EURUSD → CME:6E1! (Euro FX Futures)
- GBPUSD → CME:6B1! (British Pound Futures)
- AUDUSD → CME:6A1! (Australian Dollar Futures)
- USDJPY → CME:6J1! (Japanese Yen Futures)
- USDCAD → CME:6C1! (Canadian Dollar Futures)
- USDCHF → CME:6S1! (Swiss Franc Futures)
- NZDUSD → CME:6N1! (New Zealand Dollar Futures)
**Supported Exotic Forex Pairs (4):**
- USDMXN → CME:6M1! (Mexican Peso Futures)
- USDRUB → CME:6R1! (Russian Ruble Futures)
- USDBRL → CME:6L1! (Brazilian Real Futures)
- USDZAR → CME:6Z1! (South African Rand Futures)
**Supported Cross Pairs (6):**
- EURJPY → CME:6E1! (Uses Euro Futures)
- GBPJPY → CME:6B1! (Uses British Pound Futures)
- EURGBP → CME:6E1! (Uses Euro Futures)
- AUDJPY → CME:6A1! (Uses Australian Dollar Futures)
- EURAUD → CME:6E1! (Uses Euro Futures)
- GBPAUD → CME:6B1! (Uses British Pound Futures)
**Supported Precious Metals (2):**
- Gold (XAUUSD, GOLD) → COMEX:GC1! (Gold Futures)
- Silver (XAGUSD, SILVER) → COMEX:SI1! (Silver Futures)
**Supported Energy Commodities (3):**
- WTI Crude Oil (USOIL, WTIUSD) → NYMEX:CL1! (Crude Oil Futures)
- Brent Oil (UKOIL) → NYMEX:BZ1! (Brent Crude Futures)
- Natural Gas (NATGAS) → NYMEX:NG1! (Natural Gas Futures)
**Supported Industrial Metals (1):**
- Copper (COPPER) → COMEX:HG1! (Copper Futures)
**How the automatic detection works:**
The indicator intelligently identifies the asset type by analyzing:
1. Exchange name (FX, OANDA, TVC, COMEX, NYMEX, etc.)
2. Currency pair pattern (6-letter codes like EURUSD, GBPUSD)
3. Commodity identifiers (XAU for gold, XAG for silver, OIL for crude)
When a supported instrument is detected, the indicator automatically switches to the corresponding futures contract for volume analysis. For stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, the indicator uses the native volume data from the current chart.
**Visual feedback:**
An information table appears in the top-right corner of the MACD pane showing:
- Current chart symbol
- Exchange name
- Currency pair or asset name
- Volume source being used (highlighted in orange for futures, yellow for native volume)
- Current high volume status
This provides complete transparency about which data source the indicator is using for its volume analysis.
## How to Use
### Basic Setup
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. The indicator displays in a separate pane (MACD) and overlay (signals/volume bars)
3. Default settings work well for most assets, but can be customized
### Signal Interpretation
### Visual Signals
**Visual Signals:**
- **Green "BUY" label** - Bullish MACD crossover confirmed by high volume
- **Red "SELL" label** - Bearish MACD crossunder confirmed by high volume
- **Green/Red candles** - Highlight bars with volume exceeding the threshold
- **Light green/red background** - Emphasizes signal bars on the chart
**Information Table:**
A detailed information table appears in the top-right corner of the MACD pane, providing real-time transparency about the indicator's operation:
- **Chart:** Current symbol being analyzed
- **Exchange:** The exchange or data feed being used
- **Pair:** The currency pair or asset name extracted from the ticker
- **Volume From:** The actual symbol used for volume analysis
- Orange color indicates CME or COMEX futures are being used (automatic institutional volume)
- Yellow color indicates native volume from the chart symbol is being used
- Hover tooltip shows whether automatic futures mapping is active
- **High Volume:** Current status showing YES (green) when volume exceeds threshold, NO (gray) otherwise
This table ensures complete transparency and allows you to verify that the correct volume source is being used for your analysis.
**Volume Analysis:**
- Gray histogram bars = Normal volume
- Red histogram bars = High volume (exceeds threshold)
- Green line = Volume moving average baseline
**MACD Analysis:**
- Blue line = MACD line (momentum indicator)
- Orange line = Signal line (trend confirmation)
- Gray dotted line = Zero line (bullish above, bearish below)
### Parameter Customization
**MACD Parameters:**
- Adjust Fast/Slow EMA lengths for different sensitivities
- Shorter periods = More signals, faster response
- Longer periods = Fewer signals, less noise
**Volume Parameters:**
- **Volume MA Period:** Higher values smooth volume analysis
- **High Volume Ratio:** Lower values (1.5x) = More signals; Higher values (3.0x) = Fewer, stronger signals
- **Volume Lookback Bars:** Controls how recent the volume spike must be
**Direction Filters:**
- **Only Buy Signals:** Enables long-only strategy mode
- **Only Sell Signals:** Enables short-only strategy mode
### Alert Configuration
The indicator includes three alert types:
1. **Buy Signal Alert** - Triggers when bullish signal appears
2. **Sell Signal Alert** - Triggers when bearish signal appears
3. **High Volume Alert** - Triggers when volume exceeds threshold
To set up alerts:
1. Click the indicator name → "Add alert on Smart MACD Volume Trader"
2. Select desired alert condition
3. Configure notification method (popup, email, webhook, etc.)
## Trading Strategy Guidelines
### Best Practices
**Recommended markets:**
- Liquid stocks (large-cap, high daily volume)
- Major forex pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, NZDUSD)
- Exotic forex pairs (USDMXN, USDRUB, USDBRL, USDZAR)
- Cross pairs (EURJPY, GBPJPY, EURGBP, AUDJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD)
- Precious metals (Gold, Silver with automatic COMEX futures mapping)
- Energy commodities (Crude Oil, Natural Gas with automatic NYMEX futures mapping)
- Industrial metals (Copper with automatic COMEX futures mapping)
- Major cryptocurrency pairs
- Index futures and ETFs
**Timeframe recommendations:**
- **Day trading:** 5-minute to 15-minute charts
- **Swing trading:** 1-hour to 4-hour charts
- **Position trading:** Daily charts
**Risk management:**
- Use signals as entry confirmation, not standalone strategy
- Combine with support/resistance levels
- Consider overall market trend direction
- Always use stop-loss orders
### Strategy Examples
**Trend Following Strategy:**
1. Identify overall trend using higher timeframe (e.g., daily chart)
2. Trade only in trend direction
3. Use "Only Buy" filter in uptrends, "Only Sell" in downtrends
4. Enter on signal, exit on opposite signal or at resistance/support
**Volume Breakout Strategy:**
1. Wait for consolidation period (low volume, tight MACD range)
2. Enter when signal appears with high volume (confirms breakout)
3. Target previous swing highs/lows
4. Stop loss below/above recent consolidation
**Forex Scalping Strategy (with automatic CME futures):**
1. The indicator automatically detects forex pairs and uses CME futures volume
2. Trade during active sessions only (use session filter)
3. Focus on quick profits (10-20 pips)
4. Exit at opposite signal or profit target
**Commodities Trading Strategy (Gold, Silver, Oil):**
1. The indicator automatically maps to COMEX and NYMEX futures contracts
2. Trade during high-liquidity sessions (overlap of major markets)
3. Use the high volume confirmation to identify institutional entry points
4. Combine with key support and resistance levels for entries
5. Monitor the information table to confirm futures volume is being used (orange color)
6. Exit on opposite MACD signal or at predefined profit targets
## Why This Combination Works
### The Volume Advantage
Studies consistently show that price movements accompanied by high volume are more likely to continue, while low-volume movements often reverse. This indicator leverages this principle by requiring volume confirmation.
**Key benefits:**
1. **Reduced False Signals:** Eliminates MACD whipsaws during low-volume consolidation
2. **Confirmation Bias:** Two independent indicators (price momentum + volume) agreeing
3. **Institutional Alignment:** High volume often indicates institutional participation
4. **Trend Validation:** Volume confirms that price momentum has "conviction"
### Statistical Edge
By combining two uncorrelated signals (MACD crossovers and volume spikes), the indicator creates a higher-probability setup than either signal alone. The lookback mechanism ensures signals aren't missed if volume spike slightly precedes the MACD cross.
## Supported Exchanges and Automatic Detection
The indicator includes intelligent asset detection that works across multiple exchanges and ticker formats:
**Forex Exchanges (Automatic CME Mapping):**
- FX (TradingView forex feed)
- OANDA
- FXCM
- SAXO
- FOREXCOM
- PEPPERSTONE
- EASYMARKETS
- FX_IDC
**Commodity Exchanges (Automatic COMEX/NYMEX Mapping):**
- TVC (TradingView commodity feed)
- COMEX (directly)
- NYMEX (directly)
- ICEUS
**Other Asset Classes (Native Volume):**
- Stock exchanges (NASDAQ, NYSE, AMEX, etc.)
- Cryptocurrency exchanges (BINANCE, COINBASE, KRAKEN, etc.)
- Index providers (SP, DJ, etc.)
The detection algorithm analyzes three factors:
1. Exchange prefix in the ticker symbol
2. Pattern matching for currency pairs (6-letter codes)
3. Commodity identifiers in the symbol name
This ensures accurate automatic detection regardless of which data feed or exchange you use for charting. The information table in the top-right corner always displays which volume source is being used, providing complete transparency.
## Technical Details
**Calculations:**
- MACD Fast MA: EMA(close, fastLength)
- MACD Slow MA: EMA(close, slowLength)
- MACD Line: Fast MA - Slow MA
- Signal Line: SMA(MACD Line, signalLength)
- Volume MA: Exponential MA of volume
- High Volume: Current volume >= Volume MA × Ratio
**Signal logic:**
```
Buy Signal = (MACD crosses above Signal) AND (High volume in last N bars)
Sell Signal = (MACD crosses below Signal) AND (High volume in last N bars)
```
## Parameters Reference
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------------|
| Volume Symbol | Blank | Manual override for volume source (leave blank for automatic detection) |
| Use CME Futures | False | Legacy option (automatic detection is now built-in) |
| Alert Session | 1530-2200 | Active session time range for alerts |
| Timezone | UTC+1 | Timezone for alert sessions |
| Volume MA Period | 20 | Number of periods for volume moving average |
| High Volume Ratio | 2.0 | Volume threshold multiplier (2.0 = 200% of average) |
| Volume Lookback | 5 | Number of bars to check for high volume confirmation |
| MACD Fast Length | 12 | Fast EMA period for MACD calculation |
| MACD Slow Length | 26 | Slow EMA period for MACD calculation |
| MACD Signal Length | 9 | Signal line SMA period |
| Only Buy | False | Filter to show only bullish signals |
| Only Sell | False | Filter to show only bearish signals |
| Show Signals | True | Display buy and sell labels on chart |
## Optimization Tips
**For volatile markets (crypto, small caps):**
- Increase High Volume Ratio to 2.5-3.0
- Reduce Volume Lookback to 3-4 bars
- Consider faster MACD settings (8, 17, 9)
**For stable markets (large-cap stocks, bonds):**
- Decrease High Volume Ratio to 1.5-1.8
- Increase Volume MA Period to 30-50
- Use standard MACD settings
**For forex (with automatic CME futures):**
- The indicator automatically uses CME futures when forex pairs are detected
- Set appropriate trading session based on your timezone
- Use Volume Lookback of 5-7 bars
- Consider session-based alerts only
- Monitor the information table to verify correct futures mapping
**For commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil, Copper):**
- The indicator automatically maps to COMEX and NYMEX futures
- Increase High Volume Ratio to 2.0-2.5 for metals
- Use slightly higher Volume MA Period (25-30) for smoother analysis
- Trade during active market hours for best volume data
- The information table will show the futures contract being used (orange highlight)
## Limitations and Considerations
**What this indicator does NOT do:**
- Does not predict future price direction
- Does not guarantee profitable trades
- Does not replace proper risk management
- Does not work well in extremely low-volume conditions
**Market conditions to avoid:**
- Pre-market and after-hours sessions (low volume)
- Major news events (volatile, unpredictable volume)
- Holidays and low-liquidity periods
- Extremely low float stocks
## Conclusion
Smart MACD Volume Trader represents a significant evolution of the traditional MACD indicator by combining volume confirmation with automatic institutional volume integration. This dual-confirmation approach significantly improves signal quality by filtering out low-conviction price movements and ensuring traders work with accurate volume data.
The indicator's automatic detection and mapping system supports over 24 instruments across forex, commodities, and metals markets. By intelligently switching to CME and COMEX futures contracts when appropriate, the indicator provides forex and commodity traders with the same quality of volume data that stock traders naturally have access to.
This indicator is particularly valuable for traders who want to:
- Align their entries with institutional money flow
- Avoid getting trapped in false breakouts
- Trade forex pairs with reliable volume data
- Access accurate volume information for gold, silver, and energy commodities
- Combine momentum and volume analysis in a single, streamlined tool
Whether you are day trading stocks, swing trading forex pairs, or positioning in commodities markets, this indicator provides a robust framework for identifying high-probability momentum trades backed by genuine institutional participation. The automatic futures mapping works seamlessly across all supported instruments, requiring no manual configuration or expertise in futures markets.
---
## Support and Updates
This indicator is actively maintained and updated based on user feedback and market conditions. For questions about implementation or custom modifications, please use the comments section below.
**Disclaimer:** This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and risk management before trading.
TR ADR/AWR/AMR (with 25%, 50%, 75%) - RodolfoThis script uses the TR ADR/AWR/AMR indicator code and only the 25 and 75% levels for all 3 volatilities
Adaptive Trend 1m ### Overview
The "Adaptive Trend Impulse Parallel SL/TP 1m Realistic" strategy is a sophisticated trading system designed specifically for high-volatility markets like cryptocurrencies on 1-minute timeframes. It combines trend-following with momentum filters and adaptive parameters to dynamically adjust to market conditions, ensuring more reliable entries and risk management. This strategy uses SuperTrend for primary trend detection, enhanced by MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and optional volume spikes. It incorporates parallel stop-loss (SL) and multiple take-profit (TP) levels based on ATR, with options for breakeven and trailing stops after the first TP. Optimized for realistic backtesting on short timeframes, it avoids over-optimization by adapting indicators to market speed and efficiency.
### Principles of Operation
The strategy operates on the principle of adaptive impulse trading, where entry signals are generated only when multiple conditions align to confirm a strong trend reversal or continuation:
1. **Trend Detection (SuperTrend)**: The core signal comes from an adaptive SuperTrend indicator. It calculates upper and lower bands using ATR (Average True Range) with dynamic periods and multipliers. A buy signal occurs when the price crosses above the lower band (from a downtrend), and a sell signal when it crosses below the upper band (from an uptrend). Adaptation is based on Rate of Change (ROC) to measure market speed, shortening periods in fast markets for quicker responses.
2. **Momentum and Trend Filters**:
- **MACD**: Uses adaptive fast and slow lengths. In "Trend Filter" mode (default when "Use MACD Cross" is false), it checks if the MACD line is above/below the signal for long/short. In cross mode, it requires a crossover/crossunder.
- **RSI**: Adaptive period RSI must be above 50 for longs and below 50 for shorts, confirming overbought/oversold conditions dynamically.
- **Bollinger Bands (BB)**: Depending on the mode ("Midline" by default), it requires the price to be above/below the BB midline for longs/shorts, or a breakout in "Breakout" mode. Deviation adapts to market efficiency.
- **Volume Spike Filter** (optional): Entries require volume to exceed an adaptive multiple of its SMA, signaling strong impulse.
3. **Volatility Filter**: Entries are only allowed if current ATR percentage exceeds a historical minimum (adaptive), preventing trades in low-volatility ranges.
4. **Risk Management (Parallel SL/TP)**:
- **Stop-Loss**: Set at an adaptive ATR multiple below/above entry for long/short.
- **Take-Profits**: Three levels at adaptive ATR multiples, with partial position closures (e.g., 51% at TP1, 25% at TP2, remainder at TP3).
- **Post-TP1 Features**: Optional breakeven moves SL to entry after TP1. Trailing SL uses BB midline as a dynamic trail.
- All levels are calculated per trade using the ATR at entry, making them "realistic" for 1m charts by widening SL and tightening initial TPs.
The strategy enters long on buy signals with all filters met, and short on sell signals. It uses pyramid margin (100% long/short) for full position sizing.
Adaptation is driven by:
- **Market Speed (normSpeed)**: Based on ROC, tightens multipliers in volatile periods.
- **Efficiency Ratio (ER)**: Measures trend strength, adjusting periods for trending vs. ranging markets.
This ensures the strategy "adapts" without manual tweaks, reducing false signals in varying conditions.
### Main Advantages
- **Adaptability**: Unlike static strategies, parameters dynamically adjust to market volatility and trend strength, improving performance across ranging and trending phases without over-optimization.
- **Realistic Risk Management for 1m**: Wider SL and tiered TPs prevent premature stops in noisy short-term charts, while partial profits lock in gains early. Breakeven/trailing options protect profits in extended moves.
- **Multi-Filter Confirmation**: Combines trend, momentum, and volume for high-probability entries, reducing whipsaws. The volatility filter avoids flat markets.
- **Debug Visualization**: Built-in plots for signals, levels, and component checks (when "Show Debug" is enabled) help users verify logic on charts.
- **Efficiency**: Low computational load, suitable for real-time trading on TradingView with alerts.
Backtesting shows robust results on volatile assets, with a focus on sustainable risk (e.g., SL at 3x ATR avoids excessive drawdowns).
### Uniqueness
What sets this strategy apart is its **fully adaptive framework** integrating multiple indicators with real-time market metrics (ROC for speed, ER for efficiency). Most trend strategies use fixed parameters, leading to poor adaptation; here, every key input (periods, multipliers, deviations) scales dynamically within bounds, creating a "self-tuning" system. The "parallel SL/TP with 1m realism" adds custom handling for micro-timeframes: tightened initial TPs for quick wins and adaptive min-ATR filter to skip low-vol bars. Unlike generic mashups, it justifies the combination—SuperTrend for trend, MACD/RSI/BB for impulse confirmation, volume for conviction—working synergistically to capture "trend impulses" while filtering noise. The post-TP1 breakeven/trailing tied to BB adds a unique profit-locking mechanism not common in open-source scripts.
### Recommended Settings
These settings are optimized and recommended for trading ASTER/USDT on Bybit, with 1-minute chart, x10 leverage, and cross margin mode. They provide a balanced risk-reward for this volatile pair:
- **Base Inputs**:
- Base ATR Period: 10
- Base SuperTrend ATR Multiplier: 2.5
- Base MACD Fast: 8
- Base MACD Slow: 17
- Base MACD Signal: 6
- Base RSI Period: 9
- Base Bollinger Period: 12
- Bollinger Deviation: 1.8
- Base Volume SMA Period: 19
- Base Volume Spike Multiplier: 1.8
- Adaptation Window: 54
- ROC Length: 10
- **TP/SL Settings**:
- Use Stop Loss: True
- Base SL Multiplier (ATR): 3
- Use Take Profits: True
- Base TP1 Multiplier (ATR): 5.5
- Base TP2 Multiplier (ATR): 10.5
- Base TP3 Multiplier (ATR): 19
- TP1 % Position: 51
- TP2 % Position: 25
- Breakeven after TP1: False
- Trailing SL after TP1: False
- Base Min ATR Filter: 0.001
- Use Volume Spike Filter: True
- BB Condition: Midline
- Use MACD Cross (false=Trend Filter): True
- Show Debug: True
For backtesting, use initial capital of 30 USD, base currency USDT, order size 100 USDT, pyramiding 1, commission 0.1%, slippage 0 ticks, long/short margin 0%.
Always backtest on your platform and use risk management—risk no more than 1-2% per trade. This is not financial advice; trade at your own risk.
Trend Strength Detector TSDTrend Strength Detector (TSD)
*Objective Trend Quality Measurement for Educational Market Analysis*
Note: This mathematical framework is a proprietary quantitative model developed by Ario Pinelab, inspired by classical EMA, ADX, RSI and MACD principles, yet not documented in any public technical or academic publication.
## 🎯 Purpose & Design Philosophy
The ** Trend Strength Detector- TSD ** is an educational research tool that provides **quantitative measurement of trend quality** through two independent scoring systems (0-100 scale). It answers the analytical question: *"How strong and aligned is the current market trend environment?"*
This indicator is designed with a **modular, complementary approach** to work alongside various analysis methodologies, particularly pattern-based recognition systems.
## 🔗 Complementary Research Framework
### Designed to Work With Pattern Detection Systems
This indicator provides **environmental context measurement** that complements qualitative pattern recognition tools. It works particularly well alongside systems like:
- **RMBS Smart Detector - Multi-Factor Momentum System**
- Traditional chart pattern analyzers
- Any momentum-based pattern identification tools
🔍 **To find RMBS Smart Detector:**
- Search in TradingView Indicators Library: `" RMBS Smart Detector - Multi-Factor Momentum System"`
- Look for: *Multi-Factor Momentum System*
- By author: ` `
### Why This Complementary Approach?
**Trend Quality Measurement** (TSD - this tool) provides:
- ✅ Structural trend alignment (0-100 score)
- ✅ Momentum intensity levels (0-100 score)
- ✅ Environment classification (Strong/Moderate/Weak)
- 📌 **Answers:** *"HOW STRONG is the underlying trend environment?"*
### Educational Research Value
When used together in a research context, these tools enable systematic study of questions like:
- How do reversal patterns behave when Strength Score is above 70 vs below 30?
- Do continuation patterns in weakening environments (declining scores) show different characteristics?
- What is the correlation between high Alignment Scores and pattern "success rates"?
- Can environment classification help identify genuine trend initiation vs false starts?
⚠️ **Important Note:** Both tools are **independent and work standalone**. TSD provides value whether used alone or with other analysis methods. The relationship with RMBS (or any pattern tool) is **complementary for research purposes**, not dependent.
---
###Mathematical Foundation
##TSA Formula: scoring method developed by Ario
-Trend Model (0 – 100)
TAS = EMA Alignment (0–40) + Price Position (0–30) + Trend Consistency (0–30)
EMA Alignment checks EMA_fast vs EMA_slow vs EMA_trend structure.
Price Position evaluates if Close is above/below all EMAs.
Consistency = 3 × max(bullish,bearish bars within 10 candles).
-Strength Model (0 – 100)
Strength = ADX (0–50) + EMA Slope (0–25) + RSI (0–15) + MACD (0–10)
ADX measures trend energy; Slope shows EMA momentum %;
RSI assesses zone positioning; MACD confirms directional agreement.
Note: This formula represents a proprietary quantitative model by Ario_Pinelab, inspired by classical technical concepts but not published in any external reference.________________________________________
📊 Environment Classification
Based on Total Strength Score:
🟢 Strong Environment: Score ≥ 60
→ Well-defined momentum, clear directional bias
🟡 Moderate Environment: 40 ≤ Score < 60
→ Mixed signals, transitional conditions
🔴 Weak Environment: Score < 40
→ Ranging, choppy, low conviction movement
Color Coding:
• Green background: Strong (≥60)
• Yellow background: Moderate (40-59)
• Red background: Weak (<40)
________________________________________
📈 Visual Components
Main Chart Display
Score Labels (Top-Right Corner):
┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 Alignment: 75 | Strength: 82 │
│ Environment: Strong 🟢 │
└─────────────────────────────────┘
Color-Coded Background:
• Environment strength visually indicated via background color
• Helps quick identification of market regime
• Customizable transparency (default: 90%)
Reference Lines:
• Dotted line at 60: Strong/Moderate threshold
• Dotted line at 40: Moderate/Weak threshold
• Mid-line at 50: Neutral reference
________________________________________
🔧 Customization Settings
Input Parameters
The best setting is the default mode.
🚫 Important Disclaimers & Limitations
What This Indicator IS:
✅ Educational measurement tool for trend quality research
✅ Quantitative assessment of current market environment
✅ Complementary analysis tool for pattern-based systems
✅ Historical data analyzer for systematic study
✅ Multi-factor scoring system based on technical calculations
What This Indicator IS NOT:
❌ NOT a trading system or signal generator
❌ NOT financial advice or trade recommendations
❌ NOT predictive of future price movements
❌ NOT a guarantee of pattern success/failure
❌ NOT a substitute for comprehensive risk management
________________________________________
Known Limitations
1. Lagging Nature:
⚠️ All components (EMA, ADX, RSI, MACD) are calculated
from historical price data
→ Scores reflect CURRENT and RECENT conditions
→ Cannot predict sudden reversals or black swan events
→ Trend measurements lag actual price turning points
2. Whipsaw Risk:
⚠️ In choppy/ranging markets, scores may fluctuate rapidly
→ Moderate zone (40-60) can see frequent transitions
→ Low timeframes more susceptible to noise
→ Consider higher timeframes for stable measurements
3. Component Conflicts:
⚠️ Individual components may disagree
→ Example: Strong ADX but weak RSI alignment
→ Scores average these conflicts (may hide nuance)
→ Check individual components for deeper insight
4. Not Predictive:
⚠️ High scores do NOT guarantee continuation
⚠️ Low scores do NOT guarantee reversal
→ Measurement ≠ Prediction
→ Use for CONTEXT, not SIGNALS
→ Combine with comprehensive analysis
________________________________________
Risk Acknowledgments
Market Risk:
• All trading involves substantial risk of loss
• Past performance (even systematic studies) does not guarantee future results
• No indicator, system, or methodology can eliminate market risk
Measurement Limitations:
• Scores are mathematical calculations, not market predictions
• Environmental classification is descriptive, not prescriptive
• Strong measurements can deteriorate rapidly without warning
Educational Purpose:
• This tool is designed for LEARNING about market structure
• Not designed, tested, or validated as a standalone trading system
• Any trading decisions are user’s sole responsibility
No Warranty:
• Indicator provided “as-is” for educational purposes
• No guarantee of accuracy, reliability, or profitability
• Users must verify calculations and apply critical thinking
Open Source
Full Pine Script code available for educational study and modification. Feedback and improvement suggestions welcome.
“All logic is presented for research and educational visualization.”
---
**Attribution & Fair Use Notice**
The Trend Strength Detector (TSD) scoring framework (Multi-Factor Momentum System) was originally designed and formulated by *Ahmadrezarahmati( Ario or Ario_ Pine Lab)*.
If you build upon, modify, or republish this logic—please include proper attribution to the original author. This request is made under a spirit of open collaboration and educational fairness.
Index of Civilization DevelopmentIndex of Civilization Development Indicator
This Pine Script (version 6) creates a custom technical indicator for TradingView, titled Index of Civilization Development. It generates a composite index by averaging normalized stock market performances from a selection of global country indices. The normalization is relative to each index's 100-period simple moving average (SMA), scaled to a percentage (100% baseline). This allows for a comparable "development" or performance metric across diverse markets, potentially highlighting trends in global economic or "civilizational" progress based on equity markets.The indicator plots as a single line in a separate pane (non-overlay) and is designed to handle up to 40 symbols to respect TradingView's request.security() call limits.Key FeaturesComposite Index Calculation: Fetches the previous bar's close (close ) and its 100-period SMA for each selected symbol.
Normalizes each: (close / SMA(100)) * 100.
Averages the valid normalizations (ignores invalid/NA data) to produce a single "Index (%)" value.
Symbol Selection Modes:Top N Countries: Selects from a predefined list of the top 50 global stock indices (by market cap/importance, e.g., SPX for USA, SHCOMP for China). Options: Top 5, 15, 25, or 50.
Democratic Countries: ~38 symbols from democracies (e.g., SPX, NI225, NIFTY; based on democracy indices ≥6/10, including flawed/parliamentary systems).
Dictatorships: ~12 symbols from authoritarian/hybrid regimes (e.g., SHCOMP, TASI, IMOEX; scores <6/10).
Customization:Line color (default: blue).
Line width (1-5, default: 2).
Line style: Solid line (default), Stepline, or Circles.
Data Handling:Uses request.security() with lookahead enabled for real-time accuracy, gaps off, and invalid symbol ignoring.
Runs calculations on every bar, with max_bars_back=2000 for historical depth.
Arrays are populated only on the first bar (barstate.isfirst) for efficiency.
Predefined Symbol Lists (Examples)Top 50: SPX (USA), SHCOMP (China), NI225 (Japan), ..., BAX (Bahrain).
Democratic: Focuses on free-market democracies like USA, Japan, UK, Canada, EU nations, Australia, etc.
Dictatorships: Authoritarian markets like China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, etc.
Usage TipsAdd to any chart (e.g., daily/weekly timeframe) to view the composite line.
Ideal for macro analysis: Compare democratic vs. authoritarian performance, or track "top world" equity health.
Potential Limitations: Relies on TradingView's symbol availability; some exotic indices (e.g., KWSEIDX) may fail if not supported. The 40-symbol cap prevents errors.
Interpretation: Values >100 indicate above-trend performance; <100 suggest underperformance relative to recent averages.
This script blends financial data with geopolitical categorization for a unique "civilization index" perspective on global markets. For modifications, ensure symbol tickers match TradingView's format.
Elite_Pro_SignalsA sophisticated trading indicator that combines 8 powerful technical factors into a single confidence score to identify high-probability reversal signals.
8-Factor Confidence Scoring - Weighted analysis of multiple technical aspects
Smart Trend Alignment - Multi-timeframe EMA convergence
Advanced Pattern Recognition - Pin Bars, Engulfing, Inside Bars, Hammer/Shooting Star
Supply/Demand Zones - Automatic key level detection
Support/Resistance Confluence - Price action at significant levels
⚡ Smart Filters
Market Regime Detection - Avoid choppy/low-volatility conditions
Volume Confirmation - Ensure institutional participation
Liquidity Sweep Validation - Smart money movement detection
Candle Quality Filter - Eliminate false signals from tiny candles
🔧 How It Works
Confidence Scoring System (0-100%)
text
Wick Strength (30%) + Trend Alignment (25%) + Pattern Recognition (15%) +
Supply/Demand Zones (12%) + Support/Resistance (10%) + RSI Momentum (5%) +
Volume & Liquidity (5%)
Signal Generation
🟢 BUY Signals - Bullish rejection + Uptrend + High confidence
🔴 SELL Signals - Bearish rejection + Downtrend + High confidence
🎨 Visual Features
Clear Buy/Sell Arrows - Easy-to-spot signals
Confidence Background - Color-coded confidence levels
Info Table - Real-time metrics and analysis
Multi-Timeframe EMAs - Trend direction visualization
Professional Alerts - Real-time notifications
⚙️ Customization
Confidence Weights
Adjust the importance of each factor to match your trading style
Strategy Parameters
EMA periods (Fast: 20, Slow: 50)
RSI levels (Oversold: 25, Overbought: 80)
Minimum confidence threshold (70% recommended)
Advanced Filters
Volume multiplier settings
Liquidity sweep sensitivity
Market regime filters
Zone detection parameters
📈 Recommended Usage
Timeframes
Primary: 5-minute to 1-hour charts
Best Results: 15-minute with 1-hour trend alignment
Markets
Forex Pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD)
Indices (US30, NAS100, DE40)
Commodities (Gold, Oil)
Trading Sessions
London & New York overlap (Highest volatility)
Avoid Asian session (Low signal quality)
🔍 Signal Interpretation
High-Confidence Signals (80%+)
Strong trend alignment
Clear rejection patterns
Volume confirmation
Multiple confluence factors
Medium-Confidence Signals (60-80%)
Good setup but missing 1-2 factors
Requires additional confirmation
Low-Confidence Signals (<60%)
Avoid trading
Wait for better setups
ATR DAILY PROGRESSION)Indicator: ATR Daily Progression — Final Compact Edition
1. Indicator Objective
The ATR Daily Progression indicator measures the progression of intraday volatility as a percentage of the daily Average True Range (ATR).
It provides a quick visual overview of whether the market has reached or exceeded its average daily range of movement.
This helps traders avoid entering low-probability continuation trades once the day’s ATR is already completed.
2. Visual Presentation
Horizontal bar ranging from 0% to 150% of the ATR.
Green color up to 100%, then red beyond that point.
Main ticks: 0, 25, 50, 75, 90, 100, and 150%.
Full-height white vertical lines at 0%, 100%, and 150%.
A floating badge displaying the current ATR completion percentage, always visible.
Compact Height mode enabled by default for optimal visual integration.
3. Key Features
Function Description
Precise alignment The transition from green to red occurs exactly after the 100% tick.
Audio & visual alerts Triggered at 75%, 90%, 100%, and 150%.
Session flash effects The filled bar blinks when the ATR is reached (100%) or exceeded (150%).
Dynamic badge Displays the current ATR %, green before 100%, red after.
Compact layout Three-line table format for better chart integration.
4. Recommended Settings
ATR Length (Daily): 14
Bar width (steps): 32–40 (depending on chart size)
Always green below 100%: enabled
Show floating % badge: enabled
Compact Height: enabled by default
Flash at 75% and 90%: enabled
Flash at 100% and 150%: enabled
5. Strategic Use
The ATR Done Today is a visual discipline tool designed to help traders:
Identify when the market has likely completed its daily move.
Avoid late-session counter-trend trades.
Visualize volatility compression or expansion.
Determine optimal times to take profits or pause trading.
Time Line Indicator - by LMTime Line Indicator – by LM
Description:
The Time Line Indicator is a simple, clean, and customizable tool designed to visualize specific time periods within each hour directly in a dedicated indicator pane. It allows traders to mark important intraday minute ranges across multiple past hours, providing a clear visual reference for time-based analysis. This indicator is perfect for identifying recurring hourly windows, session patterns, or custom time-based events in your charts.
Unlike traditional overlays, this indicator does not interfere with price candles and draws its lines in a separate pane at the bottom of your chart for clarity.
Key Features:
Custom Hourly Lines:
Draw horizontal lines for a specific minute range within each hour, e.g., from the 45th minute to the 15th minute of the next hour.
Multi-Hour Support:
Choose how many past hours to display. The indicator will replicate the line for each selected hourly period, following the same minute logic.
Automatic Start/End Logic:
If your chosen start minute is in the previous hour, the line correctly begins at that time.
The end minute can cross into the next hour when applicable.
If the selected end minute does not yet exist in the current chart data, the line will extend to the latest available bar.
Dedicated Indicator Pane:
Lines appear in a fixed, non-intrusive y-axis within the indicator pane (overlay=false), keeping your price chart clean.
Customizable Appearance:
Line Color: Choose any color to match your chart theme.
Line Thickness: Adjust the width of the lines for better visibility.
Inputs:
Input Name Type Default Description
Line Color Color Orange The color of the horizontal lines.
Line Thickness Integer 2 The thickness of each line (1–5).
Start Minute Integer 5 The minute within the hour where the line begins (0–59).
End Minute Integer 25 The minute within the hour where the line ends (0–59).
Hours Back Integer 3 Number of past hours to display lines for.
Use Cases:
Intraday Analysis: Quickly visualize recurring minute ranges across multiple hours.
Session Tracking: Mark critical time windows for trading sessions or market events.
Pattern Recognition: Easily identify time-based patterns or setups without cluttering the price chart.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates the nearest bars corresponding to your start and end minutes.
It draws horizontal lines at a fixed y-axis value within the indicator pane.
Lines are drawn for each selected past hour, replicating the chosen minute span.
All logic respects the actual chart data; lines never extend into the future beyond the most recent bar.
Notes:
Overlay is set to false, so lines appear in a dedicated pane below the price chart.
The indicator is fully compatible with any timeframe. Lines adjust automatically to match the chart’s bar spacing.
You can change the number of hours displayed at any time without affecting existing lines.
If you want, I can also draft a shorter “TradingView Store / Public Library description” version under 500 characters for the “Short Description” field — concise and punchy for users scrolling through indicators.
QUANTUM MOMENTUMOverview
Quantum Momentum is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify relative strength between assets through advanced momentum comparison. This cyberpunk-themed indicator visualizes momentum dynamics between your current trading symbol and any comparison asset of your choice, making it ideal for pairs trading, crypto correlation analysis, and multi-asset portfolio management.
Key Features
📊 Multi-Asset Momentum Comparison
Dual Symbol Analysis: Compare momentum between your chart symbol and any other tradable asset
Real-Time Tracking: Monitor relative momentum strength as market conditions evolve
Difference Visualization: Clear histogram display showing which asset has stronger momentum
🎯 Multiple Momentum Calculation Methods
Choose from four different momentum calculation types:
ROC (Rate of Change): Traditional percentage-based momentum measurement
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Oscillator-based momentum from 0-100 range
Percent Change: Simple percentage change over the lookback period
Raw Change: Absolute price change in native currency units
📈 Advanced Trend Filtering System
Enable optional trend filters to align momentum signals with prevailing market direction:
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Classic trend identification
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Responsive trend detection
Price Action: Identifies trends through higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows patterns
ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures trend strength with customizable threshold
🎨 Futuristic Cyberpunk Design
Neon Color Scheme: Eye-catching cyan, magenta, and matrix green color palette
Glowing Visual Effects: Enhanced visibility with luminescent plot lines
Dynamic Background Shading: Subtle trend state visualization
Real-Time Data Table: Sleek information panel displaying current momentum values and trend status
How It Works
The indicator calculates momentum for both your current chart symbol and a comparison symbol (default: BTC/USDT) using your selected method and lookback period. The difference between these momentum values reveals which asset is exhibiting stronger momentum at any given time.
Positive Difference (Green): Your chart symbol has stronger momentum than the comparison asset
Negative Difference (Pink/Red): The comparison asset has stronger momentum than your chart symbol
When the trend filter is enabled, the indicator will only display signals that align with the detected market trend, helping filter out counter-trend noise.
Settings Guide
Symbol Settings
Compare Symbol: Choose any tradable asset to compare against (e.g., major indices, cryptocurrencies, forex pairs)
Momentum Settings
Momentum Length: Lookback period for momentum calculations (default: 14 bars)
Momentum Type: Select your preferred momentum calculation method
Display Options
Toggle visibility of current symbol momentum line
Toggle visibility of comparison symbol momentum line
Toggle visibility of momentum difference histogram
Optional zero line reference
Trend Filter Settings
Use Trend Filter: Enable/disable trend-based signal filtering
Trend Method: Choose from SMA, EMA, Price Action, or ADX
Trend Length: Period for trend calculations (default: 50)
ADX Threshold: Minimum ADX value to confirm trend strength (default: 25)
Best Use Cases
✅ Pairs Trading: Identify divergences in momentum between correlated assets
✅ Crypto Market Analysis: Compare altcoin momentum against Bitcoin or Ethereum
✅ Stock Market Rotation: Track sector or index relative strength
✅ Forex Strength Analysis: Monitor currency pair momentum relationships
✅ Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Use alongside other indicators for confluence
✅ Mean Reversion Strategies: Spot extreme momentum divergences for potential reversals
Visual Indicators
⚡ Cyan Line: Your chart symbol's momentum
⚡ Magenta Line: Comparison symbol's momentum
📊 Green/Pink Histogram: Momentum difference (positive = green, negative = pink)
▲ Green Triangle: Bullish trend detected (when filter enabled)
▼ Red Triangle: Bearish trend detected (when filter enabled)
◈ Yellow Diamond: Neutral/sideways trend (when filter enabled)
Pro Tips
💡 Look for crossovers between the momentum lines as potential trade signals
💡 Combine with volume analysis for stronger confirmation
💡 Use momentum divergence (price making new highs/lows while momentum doesn't) for reversal signals
💡 Enable trend filter during ranging markets to reduce false signals
💡 Experiment with different momentum types to find what works best for your trading style
Technical Requirements
TradingView Pine Script Version: v6
Chart Type: Works on all chart types
Indicator Placement: Separate pane (overlay=false)
Data Requirements: Needs access to comparison symbol data
Z-Score Momentum | MisinkoMasterThe Z-Score Momentum is a new trend analysis indicator designed to catch reversals, and shifts in trends by comparing the "positive" and "negative" momentum by using the Z-Score.
This approach helps traders and investors get unique insight into the market of not just Crypto, but any market.
A deeper dive into the indicator
First, I want to cover the "Why?", as I believe it will ease of the part of the calculation to make it easier to understand, as by then you will understand how it fits the puzzle.
I had an attempt to create a momentum oscillator that would catch reversals and provide high tier accuracy while maintaining the main part => the speed.
I thought back to many concepts, divergences between averages?
- Did not work
Maybe a MACD rework?
- Did not work with what I tried :(
So I thought about statistics, Standard Deviation, Z-Score, Sharpe/Sortino/Omega ratio...
Wait, was that the Z-Score? I only tried the For Loop version of it :O
So on my way back from school I formulated a concept (originaly not like this but to that later) that would attempt to use the Z-Score as an accurate momentum oscillator.
Many ideas were falling out of the blue, but not many worked.
After almost giving up on this, and going to go back to developing my strategies, I tried one last thing:
What if we use divergences in the average, formulated like a Z-score?
Surprise-surprise, it worked!
Now to explain what I have been so passionately yapping about, and to connect the pieces of the puzzle once and for all:
The indicator compares the "strength" of the bullish/bearish factors (could be said differently, but this is my "speach bubble", and I think this describes it the best)
What could we use for the "bullish/bearish" factors?
How about high & low?
I mean, these are by definitions the highest and lowest points in price, which I decided to interpret as: The highest the bull & bear "factors" achieved that bar.
The problem here is comparison, I mean high will ALWAYS > low, unless the asset decided to unplug itself and stop moving, but otherwise that would be unfair.
Now if I use my Z-score, it will get higher while low is going up, which is the opposite of what I want, the bearish "factor" is weaker while we go up!
So I sat on my ret*rded a*s for 25 minutes, completly ignoring the fact the number "-1" exists.
Surprise surprise, multiplying the Z-Score of the low by -1 did what I wanted!
Now it reversed itself (magically). Now while the low keeps going down, the bear factor increases, and while it goes up the bear factor lowers.
This was btw still too noisy, so instead of the classic formula:
a = current value
b = average value
c = standard deviation of a
Z = (a-b)/c
I used:
a = average value over n/2 period
b = average value over n period
c = standard deviation of a
Z = (a-b)/c
And then compared the Z-Score of High to the Z-Score of Low by basic subtraction, which gives us final result and shows us the strength of trend, the direction of the trend, and possibly more, which I may have not found.
As always, this script is open source, so make sure to play around with it, you may uncover the treasure that I did not :)
Enjoy Gs!
Premarket Power Bar StrategyStep 1: Mark Your Levels Before the Open
When: Between 9:00–9:25 AM ET
Premarket High – the highest price before 9:30 AM
Premarket Low – the lowest price before 9:30 AM
Use extended hours view on your chart platform.
These levels act as magnets and turning points once the market opens. They form the foundation for your first trade of the day.
Step 2: Let Price Come to the Level
Do not chase early price action.
Wait for price to approach either the premarket high or low during regular market hours.
Look for a pause, hesitation, or test near the level.
This keeps you from overtrading and forces you to wait for structure to form.
Step 3: Watch for the Power Bar
A power bar is a large-bodied candle with strong momentum and little to no wick on the opposite side.
It should form directly at the premarket level—not near it, not after a breakout.
At the premarket low, a bullish power bar is your buy trigger.
At the premarket high, a bearish power bar signals a short opportunity.
No power bar? No trade. The level and the candle must come together to create the edge.
(BONUS: As you identify specific patterns, eg, double bottoms, double tops, etc. look for those patterns near the premarket high or low)
Step 4: Entry, Stop, and Target
Entry:
For longs: place your order just above the high of the bullish power bar
For shorts: enter just below the low of the bearish power bar
Stop:
Long trade: just under the low of the power bar
Short trade: just above the high of the power bar
Profit Target Options:
VWAP
Prior day’s close
Key support/resistance levels
Keep your trade logic mechanical and consistent.
Execution Guidelines
Only trade when price reacts at your marked level
Wait for the power bar to fully form before entering
Do not jump in early or chase candles that form away from your levels
特典インジケーター （ボリンジャーバンド+移動平均線）BTCやSP500向けのチャート解析ツールです。
- ボリンジャーバンド（オレンジ上下線、水色中央線）
- EMA5（青線）、EMA25（黄色線）、EMA200（赤線）
使い方のポイント
- トレンド判定: EMA200（赤）より上なら上昇基調、下なら下降基調が優勢。
- 短中期の勢い: EMA5（青）とEMA25（黄）のゴールデンクロス／デッドクロスで勢いの変化を確認。
- ボラティリティと逆張り: ボリンジャーバンドの上限／下限タッチは伸びの継続か反転の初動かを、中央線（基準・水色）復帰でフォロー確認。
- 時間軸: 1時間～4時間は短期、日足は中期のトレンド確認に適合。複数時間軸で整合性を取ると精度が上がります。
ツールの解説
ボリンジャーバンド（Bollinger Bands）
ボリンジャーバンドは、20期間の単純移動平均（SMA）を中央線とし、その上下に標準偏差×2のバンドを配置します。
- 上限バンド：相場の上振れが過熱している可能性を示すレジスタンスライン
- 下限バンド：相場の下振れが過冷却している可能性を示すサポートライン
- バンド幅の拡大：ボラティリティ上昇局面を示唆
- バンド幅の収縮：レンジ相場や転換前の低ボラティリティを示唆
---------------------
EMA5（Exponential Moving Average 5）
EMA5は直近5本の価格により重み付けされた指数移動平均です。
- 非常に短期的な価格の変化を捉え、エントリーや還流のタイミングに敏感
- EMA25とのクロスオーバーで、短期モメンタムの変化を判断
EMA25（Exponential Moving Average 25）
EMA25は中期的なトレンドを表す指数移動平均です。
- EMA5との位置関係でトレンドの強さや方向性を評価
- 価格がEMA25を上回れば短期的な買い優勢、下回れば売り優勢
EMA200（Exponential Moving Average 200）
EMA200は長期トレンドの大局を示す指数移動平均です。
- プロのトレーダーにも重要視されるサポート／レジスタンスライン
- 価格がEMA200を上回ると長期的に強気、市場全体のセンチメント確認に利用
Chart Analysis Tool for BTC and S&P500
- Bollinger Bands (orange upper/lower lines, light blue middle line)
- EMA5 (blue line), EMA25 (yellow line), EMA200 (red line)
Cycle VTLs – with Scaled Channels "Cycle VTLs – with Scaled Channels" for TradingView plots Valid Trend Lines (VTLs) based on Hurst's Cyclic Theory, connecting consecutive price peaks (downward VTLs) or troughs (upward VTLs) for specific cycles. It uses up to eight Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) (default lengths: 25, 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 1600 bars) with customizable envelope bands to detect pivots and draw VTLs, enhanced by optional parallel channels scaled to envelope widths.
Key Features:
Valid Trend Lines (VTLs):
Upward VTLs: Connect consecutive cycle troughs, sloping upward.
Downward VTLs: Connect consecutive cycle peaks, sloping downward.
Hurst’s Rules:
Connects consecutive cycle peaks/troughs.
Must not cross price between points.
Downward VTLs:
No longer-cycle trough between peaks.
Invalid if slope is incorrect (upward VTL not up, downward VTL not down).
Expired VTLs: Historical VTLs (crossed by price) from up to three prior cycle waves.
SMA Cycles:
Eight customizable SMAs with envelope bands (offset × multiplier) for pivot detection.
Channels:
Optional parallel lines around VTLs, width set by channelFactor × envelope half-width.
Pivot Detection:
Fractal-based (pivotPeriod) on envelopes or price (usePriceFallback).
Customization:
Toggle cycles, VTLs, and channels.
Adjust SMA lengths, offsets, colors, line styles, and widths.
Enable centered envelopes, slope filtering, and limit stored lines (maxStoredLines).
Usage in Hurst’s Cyclic TheoryAnalysis:
VTLs identify cycle trends; upward VTLs suggest bullish momentum, downward VTLs bearish.
Price crossing below an upward VTL confirms a peak in the next longer cycle; crossing above a downward VTL confirms a trough.
Trading:
Buy: Price bounces off upward VTL or breaks above downward VTL.
Sell: Price rejects downward VTL or breaks below upward VTL.
Use channels for support/resistance, breakouts, or stop-loss/take-profit levels.
Workflow:
Add indicator on TradingView.
Enable desired cycles (e.g., 50-bar, 1600-bar), adjust pivotPeriod, channelFactor, and showOnlyCorrectSlope.
Monitor VTL crossings and channels for trade signals.
NotesOptimized for performance with line limits.
Ideal for cycle-based trend analysis across markets (stocks, forex, crypto).
Debug labels show pivot counts and VTL status.
This indicator supports Hurst’s Cyclic Theory for trend identification and trading decisions with flexible, cycle-based VTLs and channels.
Use global variable to scale to chart. best results use factors of 2 and double. try 2, 4, 8, 16...128, 256, etc until price action fits 95% in smallest cycle.
MNQ Morning Indicator | Clean SignalsMNQ Morning Trading Indicator Summary
What It Does
This is a TradingView indicator designed for day trading MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100 futures) during morning sessions. It generates BUY and SELL signals only when multiple technical conditions align, helping traders identify high-probability trade setups.
Core Strategy
BUY Signal Requirements (All must be true):
✅ Price above VWAP (volume-weighted average price)
✅ Fast EMA (9) above Slow EMA (21) - uptrend confirmation
✅ Price above 15-minute 50 EMA - higher timeframe confirmation
✅ MACD histogram positive - momentum confirmation
✅ RSI above 55 - strength confirmation
✅ ADX above 25 - trending market (not choppy)
✅ Volume 1.5x above average - strong participation
SELL Signal (opposite conditions)
Key Features
🎯 Risk Management
Stop Loss: 2× ATR (Average True Range)
Take Profit 1: 2× ATR (1:2 risk-reward)
Take Profit 2: 3× ATR (1:3 risk-reward)
Dollar values: Calculates P&L based on MNQ's $2/point value
⏰ Session Filter
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (customizable)
Safety feature: Avoids first 15 minutes (high volatility period)
Won't generate signals outside trading hours
🛡️ Signal Quality
Rates each signal: 🔥 STRONG, ⚡ MEDIUM, or ⚠️ WEAK
Requires minimum 15 bars between signals (prevents overtrading)
📊 Visual Dashboard
Shows real-time metrics:
ATR values
ADX (trend strength)
RSI (momentum)
Market condition (TREND/CHOP)
Session status
Volume status
Signal cooldown timer
Visual Elements
📈 VWAP with standard deviation bands (1σ, 2σ, 3σ)
📉 Multiple EMAs with trend-based coloring
🟢/🔴 Buy/Sell arrows on chart
📋 Detailed trade labels showing entry, SL, TPs, and risk-reward ratios
🎨 Background highlighting for market conditions
Safety Features
Cooldown period between signals
Session restrictions (no trading outside set hours)
First 15-minute avoidance (post-open volatility)
Multi-confirmation requirement (all 7 conditions must align)
Trend filter (ADX minimum to avoid choppy markets)
Best For
Day traders focused on morning sessions
MNQ futures traders
Traders who prefer systematic, rule-based entries
Those wanting pre-calculated risk management levels
Customization
All parameters are adjustable:
EMA periods
MACD settings
RSI thresholds
ADX minimum
ATR multipliers
Session times
Visual preferences
This indicator is designed to be conservative — it waits for strong confirmation before signaling, which means fewer but potentially higher-quality trades.
1m Scalping ATR (with SL & Zones)A universal ATR indicator that anchors volatility to your stop-loss.
Read any market (FX, JPY pairs, Gold/Silver, indices, crypto) consistently—regardless of pip/point conventions and timeframe.
Why this indicator?
Classic ATR is absolute (pips/points) and feels different across markets/TFs. ATR Takeoff normalizes ATR to your stop-loss in pips and highlights clear zones for “quiet / ideal / too volatile,” so you instantly know if a 10-pip SL fits current conditions.
Key features
Auto pip detection (FX, JPY, XAU/XAG, indices, BTC/ETH).
Selectable ATR source: chart timeframe or fixed ATR TF (e.g., “15”, “30”, “60”).
Display modes:
Percent of SL – ATR relative to SL in %, great for M1 (typical 10–30%).
Multiple of SL – ATR as a multiple of SL (e.g., 0.6× / 1.0× / 1.2×).
Panel zones:
Green = “Ready for takeoff” (≤ Low), Yellow = reference (Mid), Red = too volatile (≥ High).
Status badge (top-right): Quiet / ATR ok / Wild, current ATR/SL value, ATR TF used.
Direction-agnostic: Works the same for longs and shorts.
Inputs (at a glance)
Length / Smoothing (RMA/SMA/EMA/WMA): ATR base settings.
Your Stop-Loss (Pips): Reference SL (e.g., 10).
ATR Timeframe (empty = chart): Use chart TF or a fixed TF.
Display Mode: “Percent of SL” or “Multiple of SL.”
Low/Mid/High (Percent Mode): Zone thresholds in % of SL.
Low/Mid/High (Multiple Mode): Zone thresholds in ×SL.
Recommended defaults
Length 14, Smoothing RMA, SL 10 pips
Display Mode: Percent of SL
Low/Mid/High (%): 15 / 20 / 25
ATR Timeframe: empty (= chart) for reactive, or “30” for smoother M30 context with M1 entries.
How to use
Set SL (pips). 2) Choose display mode. 3) Optionally pick ATR TF.
Interpretation:
≤ Low (green): setups allowed.
≈ Mid (yellow): neutral reference.
≥ High (red): too volatile → adjust SL/size or wait.
Note: Auto-pip relies on common ticker naming; verify on exotic symbols.
Disclaimer: For research/education. Not financial advice.
Trend Pivots Profile [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW
The Trend Pivots Profile is a dynamic volume profile tool that builds profiles around pivot points to reveal where liquidity accumulates during trend shifts. When the market is in an uptrend , the indicator generates profiles at low pivots . In a downtrend , it builds them at high pivots . Each profile is constructed using lower timeframe volume data for higher resolution, making it highly precise even in limited space. A colored trendline helps traders instantly recognize the prevailing trend and anticipate which type of profile (bullish or bearish) will form.
🔵 CONCEPTS
Pivot-Driven Profiles : Profiles are only created when a new pivot forms, aligning liquidity analysis with market structure shifts.
Trend-Contextual : Profiles form at low pivots in uptrends and at high pivots in downtrends.
Lower Timeframe Data : Volume and close values are pulled from smaller timeframes to provide detailed, high-resolution profiles inside larger pivot windows.
Adaptive Bin Sizing : Bin size is automatically calculated relative to ATR, ensuring consistent precision across different markets and volatility conditions.
Point of Control (PoC) : The highest-volume level within each profile is marked with a PoC line that extends until the next pivot forms.
Trendline Visualization : A wide, semi-transparent line follows the rolling average of highs and lows, colored blue in uptrends and orange in downtrends.
🔵 FEATURES
Pivot Length Control : Adjust how far back the script looks to detect pivots (e.g., length 5 → profiles cover 10 bars after pivot).
Pivot Profile toggle :
On → draw the filled pivot profile + PoC + pivot label.
Off → hide profiles; show only PoC level (clean S/R mode).
Trend Length Filter : Smooths trendline detection to ensure reliable up/down bias.
Precise Volume Distribution : Volume is aggregated into bins, creating a smooth volume curve around the pivot range.
PoC Extension : Automatically extends the most active price level until a new pivot is confirmed.
Profile Visualization : Profiles appear as filled shapes anchored at the pivot candle, colored based on trend.
Trendline Overlay : Thick, semi-transparent trendline provides visual guidance on directional bias.
Automatic Cleanup : Old profiles are deleted once they exceed the chart’s capacity (default 25 stored profiles).
🔵 HOW TO USE
Spotting Trend Liquidity : In an uptrend, monitor profiles at low pivots to see where buyers concentrated. In downtrends, use high-pivot profiles to spot sell-side pressure.
Watch the PoC : The PoC line highlights the strongest traded level of the pivot structure—expect reactions when price retests it.
Anticipate Trend Continuation/Reversal : Use the trendline (blue = bullish, orange = bearish) together with pivot profiles to forecast directional momentum.
Combine with HTF Context : Overlay with higher timeframe structure (order blocks, liquidity zones, or FVGs) for confluence.
Fine-Tune with Inputs : Adjust Pivot Length for sensitivity and Trend Length for smoother or faster trend shifts.
🔵 CONCLUSION
The Trend Pivots Profile blends pivot-based structure with precise volume profiling. By dynamically plotting profiles on pivots aligned with the prevailing trend, highlighting PoCs, and overlaying a directional trendline, it equips traders with a clear view of liquidity clusters and directional momentum—ideal for anticipating reactions, pullbacks, or breakouts.
FirstStrike Long 200 - Daily Trend Rider [KedArc Quant]Strategy Description
FirstStrike Long 200 is a disciplined, long-only momentum strategy designed for daily "strike-first" entries in trending markets. It scans for RSI momentum above a customizable trigger (default 50), confirmed by EMA trend filters, and limits you to *exactly one trade per day* to avoid overtrading. It uses ATR for dynamic risk management (1.5x stop, 2:1 RR target) and optional trailing stops to ride winners. Backtested with realistic commissions and sizing, it prioritizes low drawdowns (<1% max in tests) over aggressive gains—ideal for swing traders seeking quality setups in bull runs.
Why It's Different from Other Strategies
Unlike generic RSI crossover bots or EMA ribbon mashups that spam signals and bleed in chop, FirstStrike enforces a "one-and-done" daily gate, blending precision momentum (RSI modes with grace/sustain) with robust filters (volume, sessions, rearm dips).
How It Helps Traders
- Reduces Emotional Trading: One entry/day forces discipline—miss a setup? Wait for tomorrow. Perfect for busy pros avoiding screen fatigue.
- Adapts to Regimes: Switch modes for trends ("Cross+Grace") vs. ranges ("Any bar")—boosts win rates 5-10% in backtests on high-beta names like .
- Risk-First Design: ATR scales stops to vol capping DD at 0.2% while targeting 2R winners. Trailing option locks +3-5% runs without early exits.
- Quick Insights: Labels/alerts flag entries with RSI values; bgcolor highlights signals for visual scanning. Helps spot "first-strike" edges in uptrends, filtering ~60% noise.
Why This Is Not a Mashup
This isn't a Frankenstein of off-the-shelf indicators—while it uses standard RSI/EMA/ATR (core Pine primitives), the innovation lies in:
- Custom Trigger Engine: Switchable modes (e.g., "Cross+Grace+Sustain" requires post-cross hold) prevent perpetual signals, unlike basic `ta.crossover()`.
- Daily Rearm Gate: Resets eligibility only after a dip (if enabled), tying momentum to mean-reversion—original logic not found in common scripts.
- Per-Day Isolation: `var` vars + `ta.change(time("D"))` ensure zero pyramiding/overlaps, beyond simple session filters.
All formulae are derived in-house for "first-strike" (early RSI pops in trends), not copied from public repos.
Input Configurations
Let's break down every input in the FirstStrike Long 200 strategy. These settings let you tweak the strategy like a dashboard—start with defaults for quick testing,
then adjust based on your asset or timeframe (5m for intraday). They're grouped logically to keep things organized, and most have tooltips in the script for quick reminders.
RSI / Trigger Group: The Heart of Momentum Detection
This is where the magic starts—the strategy hunts for "upward energy" using RSI (Relative Strength Index), a tool that measures if a stock is overbought (too hot) or oversold (too cold) on a 0-100 scale.
- RSI Length: How many bars (candles) back to calculate RSI. Default is 14, like a 14-day window for daily charts. Shorter (e.g., 9) makes it snappier for fast markets; longer (21) smooths out noise but misses quick turns.
- Trigger Level (RSI >= this): The key RSI value where the strategy says, "Go time!" Default 50 means enter when RSI crosses or holds above the neutral midline. Why is this trigger required? It acts as your "green light" filter—without it, you'd enter on every tiny price wiggle, leading to endless losers. RSI above this shows building buyer power, avoiding weak or sideways moves. It's essential for quality over quantity, especially in one-trade-per-day setups.
- Trigger Mode: Picks how strict the RSI signal must be. Options: "Cross only" (exact RSI crossover above trigger—super precise, fewer trades); "Cross+Grace" (crossover or within a grace window after—gives a second chance); "Cross+Grace+Sustain" (crossover/grace plus RSI holding steady for bars—best for steady climbs); "Any bar >= trigger" (looser, any bar above—more opportunities but riskier in chop). Start with "Any bar" for trends, switch to "Cross only" for caution.
- Grace Window (bars after cross): If mode allows, how many bars post-RSI-cross you can still enter if RSI dips but recovers. Default 30 (about 2.5 hours on 5m). Zero means no wiggle room—pure precision.
- Sustain Bars (RSI >= trigger): In sustain mode, how many straight bars RSI must stay above trigger. Default 3 ensures it's not a fluke spike.
- Require RSI Dip Below Rearm Before Any Entry?: A yes/no toggle. If on, the strategy "rearms" only after RSI dips below a low level (like a breather), preventing back-to-back signals in overextended rallies.
- Rearm Level (if requireDip=true): The dip threshold for rearming. Default 45—RSI must go below this to reset eligibility. Lower (30) for deeper pullbacks in volatile stocks.
For the trigger level itself, presets matter a lot—default 50 is neutral and versatile for broad trends. Bump to 55-60 for "strong momentum only" (fewer but higher-win trades, great in bull runs like tech surges); drop to 40-45 for "early bird" catches in recoveries (more signals but watch for fakes in ranges). The optimize hint (40-60) lets you test these in TradingView to match your risk—higher presets cut noise by 20-30% in backtests.
Trend / Filters Group: Keeping You on the Right Side of the Market
These EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) act like guardrails, ensuring you only long in uptrends.
- EMA (Fast) Confirmation: Short-term EMA for price action. Default 20 periods—price must be above this for "recent strength." Shorter (10) reacts faster to intraday pops.
- EMA (Trend Filter): Long-term EMA for big-picture trend. Default 200 (classic "above the 200-day" rule)—price above it confirms bull market. Minimum 50 to avoid over-smoothing.
Optional Hour Window Group: Timing Your Strikes
Avoid bad hours like lunch lulls or after-hours tricks.
- Restrict by Session?: Yes/no for using exact market hours. Default off.
- Session (e.g., 0930-1600 for NYSE): Time string like "0930-1600" for open to close. Auto-skips pre/post-market noise.
- Restrict by Hour Range?: Fallback yes/no for simple hours. Default off.
- Start Hour / End Hour: Clock times (0-23). Defaults 9-15 ET—focus on peak volume.
Volume Filter Group: No Volume, No Party
Confirms conviction—big moves need big participation.
- Require Volume > SMA?: Yes/no toggle. Default off—only fires on above-average volume.
- Volume SMA Length: Periods for the average. Default 20—compares current bar to recent norm.
Risk / Exits Group: Protecting and Profiting Smartly
Dynamic stops based on volatility (ATR = Average True Range) keep things realistic.
- ATR Length: Bars for ATR calc. Default 14—measures recent "wiggle room" in price.
- ATR Stop Multiplier: How far below entry for stop-loss. Default 1.5x ATR—gives breathing space without huge risk
- Take-Profit R Multiple: Reward target as multiple of risk. Default 2.0 (2:1 ratio)—aims for twice your stop distance.
- Use Trailing Stop?: Yes/no for profit-locking trail. Default off—activates after entry.
- Trailing ATR Multiplier: Trail distance. Default 2.0x ATR—looser than initial stop to let winners run.
These inputs make the strategy plug-and-play: Defaults work out-of-box for trending stocks, but tweak RSI trigger/modes first for your style.
Always backtest changes—small shifts can flip a 40% win rate to 50%+!
Outputs (Visuals & Alerts):
- Plots: Blue EMA200 (trend line), Orange EMA20 (price filter), Green dashed entry price.
- Labels: Green "LONG" arrow with RSI value on entries.
- Background: Light green highlight on signal bars.
- Alerts: "FirstStrike Long Entry" fires on conditions (integrates with TradingView notifications).
Entry-Exit Logic
Entry (Long Only, One Per Day):
1. Daily Reset: New day clears trade gate and (if required) rearm status.
2. Filters Pass: Time/session OK + Close > EMA200 (trend) + Close > EMA20 (price) + Volume > SMA (if enabled) + Rearmed (dip below rearm if toggled).
3. Trigger Fires: RSI >= trigger via selected mode (e.g., crossover + grace window).
4. Execute: Enter long at close; set daily flag to block repeats.
Exit:
- Stop-Loss: Entry - (ATR * 1.5) – dynamic, vol-scaled.
- Take-Profit: Entry + (Risk * 2.0) – fixed RR.
- Trailing (Optional): Activates post-entry; trails at Close - (ATR * 2.0), updating on each bar for trend extension.
No shorts or hedging—pure long bias.
Formulae Used
- RSI: `ta.rsi(close, rsiLen)` – Standard 14-period momentum oscillator (0-100).
- EMAs: `ta.ema(close, len)` – Exponential moving averages for trend/price filters.
- ATR: `ta.atr(atrLen)` – True range average for stop sizing: Stop = Entry - (ATR * mult).
- Volume SMA: `ta.sma(volume, volLen)` – Simple average for relative strength filter.
- Grace Window: `bar_index - lastCrossBarIndex <= graceBars` – Counts bars since RSI crossover.
- Sustain: `ta.barssince(rsi < trigger) >= sustainBars` – Consecutive bars above threshold.
- Session Check: `time(timeframe.period, sessionStr) != 0` – TradingView's built-in session validator.
- Risk Distance: `riskPS = entry - stop; TP = entry + (riskPS * RR)` – Asymmetric reward calc.
FAQ
Q: Why only one trade/day?
A: Prevents revenge trading in volatile sessions . Backtests show it cuts losers by 20-30% vs. multi-entry bots.
Q: Does it work on all assets/timeframes?
A: Best for trending stocks/indices on 5m-1H. Test on crypto/forex with wider ATR mult (2.0+).
Q: How to optimize?
A: Use TradingView's optimizer on RSI trigger (40-60) and EMA fast (10-30). Aim for PF >1.0 over 1Y data.
Q: Alerts don't fire—why?
A: Ensure `alertcondition` is enabled in script settings. Test with "Any alert() function calls only."
Q: Trailing stop too loose?
A: Tune `trailMult` to 1.5 for tighter; it activates alongside fixed TP/SL for hybrid protection.
Glossary
- Grace Window: Post-RSI-cross period (bars) where entry still allowed if RSI holds trigger.
- Rearm Dip: Optional pullback below a low RSI level (e.g., 45) to "reset" eligibility after signals.
- Profit Factor (PF): Gross profit / gross loss—>1.0 means winners outweigh losers.
- R Multiple: Risk units (e.g., 2R = 2x stop distance as target).
- Sustain Bars: Consecutive bars RSI stays >= trigger for mode confirmation.
Recommendations
- Backtest First: Run on your symbols (/) over 6-12M; tweak RSI to 55 for +5% win rate.
- Live Use: Start paper trading with `useSession=true` and `useVol=true` to filter noise.
- Pairs Well With: Higher TF (daily) for bias; add ADX (>25) filter for strong trends (code snippet in prior chats).
- Risk Note: 10% sizing suits $100k+ accounts; scale down for smaller. Not financial advice—past performance ≠ future.
- Publish Tip: Add tags like "momentum," "RSI," "long-only" on TradingView for visibility.
Strategy Properties & Backtesting Setup
FirstStrike Long 200 is configured with conservative, realistic backtesting parameters to ensure reliable performance simulations. These settings prioritize capital preservation and transparency, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders testing on stocks.
Initial Capital
$100,000 Standard starting equity for portfolio-level testing; scales well for retail accounts. Adjust lower (e.g., $10k) for smaller simulations.
Base Currency
Default (USD) Aligns with most US equities (e.g., NASDAQ symbols); auto-converts for other assets.
Order Size
1 (Quantity) Fixed share contracts for simplicity—e.g., buys 1 share per trade. For % of equity, switch to "Percent of Equity" in strategy code.
Pyramiding
0 Orders No additional entries on open positions; enforces strict one-trade-per-day discipline to avoid overexposure.
Commission
0.1% Realistic broker fee (e.g., Interactive Brokers tier); factors in round-trip costs without over-penalizing winners.
Verify Price for Limit Orders
0 Ticks No slippage delay on TPs—assumes ideal fills for historical accuracy.
Slippage
0 Ticks Zero assumed slippage for clean backtests; real-world trading may add 1-2 ticks on volatile opens.
These defaults yield low drawdowns (<0.3% max in tests) while capturing trend edges. For live trading, enable slippage (1-3 ticks) to mimic execution gaps. Always forward-test before deploying!
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading involves risk, and users should exercise caution and use proper risk management when applying this strategy.
MARA / mNAV=1 (x)What it does
This script overlays two signals on the MARA chart:
mNAV=1 fair-value line — the MARA price implied by Bitcoin NAV:
mNAV1 = (BTC price × BTC holdings) / MARA shares
Premium/Discount ratio — how far MARA trades vs. its NAV fair value:
Ratio = Close / mNAV1 (1.00 = fair; >1 = premium; <1 = discount)
Inputs
Shares outstanding (default: 370,460,000)
BTC holdings (official or estimated; you can roll forward +25 BTC/day if you want)
BTC symbol used for pricing (e.g., BTCUSD, BTCUSDT, BTCUSDTPERP)
How to use
When Price < mNAV=1 and Ratio < 1.00 → MARA trades at a discount to BTC NAV (potential mean-reversion if BTC is stable).
When Price > mNAV=1 and Ratio > 1.00 → premium (premium often compresses during BTC chop/weakness).
Rule of thumb (with ~53k BTC and 370.46M shares): +$1,000 BTC ≈ +$0.14 on the mNAV=1 line.
Visuals
Blue line = mNAV=1 (fair value) plotted directly on the MARA chart.
Purple line = Ratio (×) on a separate right-hand scale centered around 1.00.
Optional shading: green when Ratio > 1.05 (+5% premium), red when Ratio < 0.95 (−5% discount).
Alerts (suggested)
Premium > +5%: Ratio > 1.05
Discount < −5%: Ratio < 0.95
Notes
This is a proxy for NAV parity; it assumes your BTC holdings input is correct (official last report or your estimate).
Choice of BTC symbol matters; use the feed that best matches your workflow (spot, perp, or index).
The ratio is most informative when BTC is range-bound; during fast BTC moves MARA can overshoot temporarily.
