NY VWAP 2std to 3std Probabilities + Exit ZonesHow it works:
Time buckets
Early: 10:30 – 12:00
Mid: 12:00 – 14:00
Late: 14:00 – 16:00
Bands
2σ band (s2up / s2dn) → this is where the “potential breakout” starts.
3σ band (s3up / s3dn) → this is the “target” for the 2→3σ move.
Counting logic
If during a given bucket, the price touches the 2σ band, it counts as a 2σ hit.
If after that, in the same bucket, the price also touches the 3σ band, it counts as a 3σ hit.
Probability calculation
\text{Probability 2→3σ} = \frac{\text{# of 3σ hits}}{\text{# of 2σ hits}} \times 100
For example, if in the late session the lower 2σ band is hit 10 times, and of those 10 times, 6 eventually hit the lower 3σ band, the script will show 60%.
Labels / lines
On the chart, Upper/Lower 2→3σ probabilities are displayed per bucket.
So yes: “Late Lower 2σ → 3σ: 60%” means: if price touches the lower 2σ band in the late session, historically, 60% of those touches continued to the 3σ band.
⚠ Important caveats:
These are historical probabilities, not predictions.
Small sample sizes in a bucket can make percentages unstable early in the day.
The script only counts session NY bars (0930–1600) and ignores pre-10:30 hits to reduce opening volatility noise.
Indicateur Pine Script®
