VERY SHORT TERM ANALYSIS (HOURLY)
Today, we are going to look carefulLy what happened after the validation of the RSI bullish divergence coupled with the double top formation which i mentioned yesterday morning in my previous analysis as a warning ... (see related idea below)
So as you can see, after this validation signal the BTC moved quickly up in a new intraday bull trend, (higher highs and higher lows, confirmed with a convergence on the RSI indicator; please also note the bullish engulfing pattern at the bottom of the chart, which also added value to this nice recovery; note also the successive long white candle which broke at each time important resistance level, begining by the Tenkan-Sen, then the Kijun-Sen, the resistanc of the former downtrend channel and finally the clouds resistance area (39'475-39'713) which increase the upside move towards an intermediate high @ 40'375 then going to the high so far @ 40'800.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'590 of the last downside correction (42'979 - 38'202 has also been filled), with the next 61.8% Fib ret @ 41'154, which also match the 4 hours clouds top resistance area and which should also be considered as the next important level to break in order to maintain this upside bias.
NEVERTHELESS, looking at the last couple hours price action, we can see a trend changing from UP to SIDEWAYS, with a RSI also moving in the same way !!
Therefore, this is the first warning signal to consider and respect !
Indeed, no bearish divergence has been confirmed yet, but I would strongly suggest to monitor very closely the price action over the upcoming trading hours.
CONCLUSION :
In order to maintain to come back in the former short term uptrend mood, the BTC should at least recover and hold above the former uptrend support line and make a new high (higher than the previous one @ 40'800
On the downside, an hourly closing below 40'375 (respectively former short term resistance area and now new short term support area !) would be the first warning signal calling for a downside correction towards the following levels :
S1 : 39'800
S2 : 39'500
S3 : 39'194 (VERY THIN HOURLY CLOUDS SUPPORT ZONE !)
As usual monitor and watch closely both shorter time frames (M30, M15 and M5) in putting in place alerts which will help you to detect early signal (s) of validation or invalidation of what I previously mentioned.
Do not forget, of course, to keep an eye, at the DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY picture which will bring you a broad picture and which will remember you that the BTC is still under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION, with its trigger level @ 28'600, currently in the weekly time frame still in a secondary downtrend move and in the daily picture, still below the clouds...meaning that the countertrend recovery should only be consider, for the time being, as a TACTICAL RECOVERY ONLY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND and NOT AS A STRATEGIC REVERSAL YET.
Have a nice trading day.
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
Today, we are going to look carefulLy what happened after the validation of the RSI bullish divergence coupled with the double top formation which i mentioned yesterday morning in my previous analysis as a warning ... (see related idea below)
So as you can see, after this validation signal the BTC moved quickly up in a new intraday bull trend, (higher highs and higher lows, confirmed with a convergence on the RSI indicator; please also note the bullish engulfing pattern at the bottom of the chart, which also added value to this nice recovery; note also the successive long white candle which broke at each time important resistance level, begining by the Tenkan-Sen, then the Kijun-Sen, the resistanc of the former downtrend channel and finally the clouds resistance area (39'475-39'713) which increase the upside move towards an intermediate high @ 40'375 then going to the high so far @ 40'800.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'590 of the last downside correction (42'979 - 38'202 has also been filled), with the next 61.8% Fib ret @ 41'154, which also match the 4 hours clouds top resistance area and which should also be considered as the next important level to break in order to maintain this upside bias.
NEVERTHELESS, looking at the last couple hours price action, we can see a trend changing from UP to SIDEWAYS, with a RSI also moving in the same way !!
Therefore, this is the first warning signal to consider and respect !
Indeed, no bearish divergence has been confirmed yet, but I would strongly suggest to monitor very closely the price action over the upcoming trading hours.
CONCLUSION :
In order to maintain to come back in the former short term uptrend mood, the BTC should at least recover and hold above the former uptrend support line and make a new high (higher than the previous one @ 40'800
On the downside, an hourly closing below 40'375 (respectively former short term resistance area and now new short term support area !) would be the first warning signal calling for a downside correction towards the following levels :
S1 : 39'800
S2 : 39'500
S3 : 39'194 (VERY THIN HOURLY CLOUDS SUPPORT ZONE !)
As usual monitor and watch closely both shorter time frames (M30, M15 and M5) in putting in place alerts which will help you to detect early signal (s) of validation or invalidation of what I previously mentioned.
Do not forget, of course, to keep an eye, at the DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY picture which will bring you a broad picture and which will remember you that the BTC is still under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION, with its trigger level @ 28'600, currently in the weekly time frame still in a secondary downtrend move and in the daily picture, still below the clouds...meaning that the countertrend recovery should only be consider, for the time being, as a TACTICAL RECOVERY ONLY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND and NOT AS A STRATEGIC REVERSAL YET.
Have a nice trading day.
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
