Although no bullish divergence was detected in this hourly time frame, the BITCOIN managed to recover nicely, breaking on its way up all resistances very quickly, in a short period of time; it also managed to recover above the hourly clouds and hold above it for the time being.

After having reached, a coupled of hours ago, an intraday high @ 41'250, the BTC is currently moving slightly down and is now, again, below the Tenkan-Sen, which should be seen as a good indicator in this hourly time frame.

We are now, roughly, in the same position than yesterday morning when the BTC reached a intraday low @ 38'547, no RSI bearish divergence had been detected and nevertheless a nice rally took place (38'547-41'250).

Are we going to see the same scenario on the other side ???

The answer to this question will be given by the KEY PIVOT LEVEL OF 40'000, which also match with the hourly clouds support area, the H4 Mid Bollinger Band, the bottom of the Daily clouds zone; in summary, A VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL WHICH SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED !!!

4 HOURS (H4)

The H4 clouds worked perfectly well as resistance level for the time being; two successive "shooting stars" took place when attempting to enter in the clouds.

On the upside, watch the 4 hours clouds resistance area between 40'950 and 42'100 as the next barrier to break.

A failure to hold, on H4 closing basis, above the ongoing former downtrend line resistance, currently @ 40'469) which became now the new support, would be the first warning signal of a BULL TRAP and would opent the door for lower levels towards, the MBB @ 40'178 ahead of the cluster of KS and TS @ 39'900.


Despite this recent rally, the BTC did not managed to close on a DAILY BASIS above the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'998 !

Therefore, the today's ongoing price action and more important its closing level may give more clues about further development for the upcoming daily session (s).

Indeed, the TRIANGLE PATTERN is still alive, with now, 2 potential breakouts - 41'105 and 39'813, targeting respectively 43'390 on the upside and 37'474 on the downside, depending on which side the breakout will occur...

Watch TS (40'481) as the first support ahead of the daily bottom clouds @ 40'000.


Last weekly closing @ 39'691 below the weekly clouds bottom (39'895) for the first time since January 2022 when the Bitcoin reached an intraweek low @ 32'950 with a weekly closing below the clouds @ 36'294.

Ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt, the BTC being, currently, again in the bottom of the clouds and facing the first significant level to break, which is the weekly Tenkan-Sen @ 41'279, (very important level, already mentioned several times in my previous analysis !)

The weekly clouds are very thick (40'118 - 50'550) and therefore should be seen as a difficult area to break straight away...Mid Bollinger Band @ 42'407 will also be an important level to watch at and also consider as a barometer or pivot level for further development.

IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki

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