Ongoing price action is for the time being not very encouraging ; indeed, after having briefly tested the resistance ton @ 42’680, the Bitcoin reversed sharply and came back below the weekly clouds support area.

The level of the next weekly closing will be very important to look at as, a closing confirmation below 40’118 would be seen as a negative signal which would increase considerably the downside risk, putting the focus for the next supports :

S1 : 38'547
S2 : 37'581
S3 : 36'980

In order to temporary neutralise this downside risk, the Bitcoin should at least close above the Tenkan-Sen,(@ 41’279), level already mentioned several times in my previous analysis.

Next resistances being :

R1 : 42'248
R2 . 43'385
R3 : 44’523


High volatility seen over the last couple of days, triggered firstly an upside triangle breakout, calling for a target @ 43’400 which has been missed, higher level being 42’979, which matched with the top of the clouds resistance area and which triggered the sharp downside reversal , pushing the Bitcoin below 40’000, @ 39’770.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin failed to recover and closed, for the first time, below the triangle bottom support line which validated this triangle formation calling for a target @ 37’581. Warning, watch carefully ongoing price action (pullback) which may either validate or invalidate this recent downside breakout.

Watch also carefully the price action of the LAGGING LINE which is currently testing the bottom level of the clouds.

Finally, it is also important to note that the primary uptrend support line is currently @ 36’980 (Support nr 3 mentioned in my weekly analysis)

4 HOURS (H4)

Currently below the clouds (39’824-40’998)

LAGGING LINE also below both Tenkan-Sen and Cajun-Sen.

RSI below 50, @ 36.91

A « DOJI » triggered a « shy recovery », which for the time being has been rejected by the bottom of the clouds resistance area.

1 HOUR (H1)

Below the clouds, Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen

Watch closely the RSI which may show a potential Bullish divergence (potential double bottom too) which if confirmed may trigger some recovery, with a limited upside potential as this recovery should be seen as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend.

IRONMAN8848 Jean-Pierre Bürki
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