Two successive failure attempts to breakout the clouds resistance triggered a reversal move from its recent top @ 4'739.50 towards a low so far of
4'606.75, filling in its way both the 61.8% (4'572.75-4'739.50)@ 4'636.50 and the 78.6% Fib ret @ 4608.50
Global picture in this time frame does not look very encouraging as currently the SP 500 is below :
1) The clouds
2) The Mid
3) The Tenkan-Sen
4) The Kijun-Sen
and last but not least a Chikou-Span or Lagging line converging to the South as well...
is @ 37.66
Last candle which closed a few minutes ago triggered an pattern, watch next ongoing candle to validate or invalidate this pattern on a H4 closing basis !
1 HOUR (H1)
Short term recovery only triggered by a long white candle which just closed below the Mid .
Watch ongoing candle for getting more clues about short term picture.
Under the influence of a major formation (trigger @ 4'500), coupled with a top and a divergence !!!
In an ongoing downtrend price action and below the MBB , TS and KS .
Next to watch at very carefully is the daily clouds which is currently between 4'633 and 4'500 and which should be seen
as a key zone for further development.
Indeed, a failure to :
1) stay and hold above the top of the clouds would be seen as the first warning signal, calling for further downside
2) A breakout of the bottom line of the former currently @ 4'566 (roughly the middle of the clouds too !) would also add more value for a downtrend continuation.
A breakout of 4'500 on a daily closing basis would :
1) confirm the formation in progress ---> target 4'200
2) also confirm the breakout of the daily clouds bottom area
The ongoing weekly closing level, later on today, would add more indication for the next week...
As a gentle reminder, the Mid is currently @ 4'572 and a weekly closing below this level would be very negative for the upcoming week (s).
Second important support to look at is the weekly Kijun-Sen, @ 4'516 should be seen as the LAST VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME !!!
A failure to hold above 4'516 on a weekly closing basis would put the focus on 4'186.50, weekly clouds top and also 23.6% Fib retracement of the big rally from
2'174 towards the ATH @ 4'808.25
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
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