I posted the bigger picture view in my previous post where I provided the context for this idea, which is my near-term projection with 2 most likely paths of price action from current level)... see context overview below:
To summarize:
- the main pattern I am watching is the completion of wave C of an expanded flat - this is potentially wave II of a larger cycle, invalidated if price drops below 9. A local bottom at 27.30 on May 12 fits the criteria as the 5th subwave of C of this expanded flat, which would make it a 2.00 retracement of wave B of that EF (wave B is also my primary wave 5 at the all time high (ATH) of 308 back in Feb. 2021.
- (1) - (2) of circle C was a double combo off correction off the ATH that broke down and has been forming the Z of a triple combo off the ATH that encompasses wave circle C of the expanded flat
- (3) - (4) of circle C ended in an expanding triangle around the 1.618 retracement of circle B, this resulted in a nasty gap down to the level that TDOC went public (~28).. this was necessary to realize the 5th and final count of circle C, and also to retest TDOCs IPO level for support.
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So now were here. The goal of the big money seems to accumulating shares and establishing a bottom at larger cycle wave II before beginning mark up. The move off the new low has the setup to be very explosive upside for a couple reasons:
- it will simultaneously complete the expanded flat correction and the primary corrective wave
- there is a massive gap to fill to the upside
- potential for short squeeze with over 23% float, and the entire market is a dangerous enviroment for shorts right now if names like TDOC, SPOT, EPAM, etc. (i.e. solid companies with significant near-term upside potential) trigger the squeeze
Here's what the chart and the math is telling me for TDOC - there is room next week to make a run to low-mid 40s (point target 46) and complete E of the new triangle forming at (5) of circle C. There is also evidence that wyckoff accumulation began after the gap down and is now in either phase b or c.
-if c, then the spring was just realized at D of the blue triangle, and the next thing we will see is a sign of strength to a level > blue A. Looking at the trendline resistance through the highs of blue A & C, TDOC just broke above that Friday 6/24, and made a low just above the resistance (indicating potential support). The marginal gap is at 46, so it is possible to see a test of marginal gap fill at 46, which would be the SoS, followed by a backup/retest of the upper triangle for support before markup. I am getting confluence for the initial target from current level = 46, so I am expecting that to be the next level reached from here {confluence: 46 is my time series forecast by July 15, 46 is the extrapolated level that will be realized if RSI makes it to around 70 and becomes oversold - bullish momentum pointing to that, 46 is the 0.382 of the upper part of previous triangle (i.e. (4) of circle C), and 46 is the marginal gap). Thus, if blue D was in fact the spring, then expect the solid black path to materialize and continue to around 60 (0.618 w.r.t (4) of circle C, and just above the nominal gap fill in the mid 50s). Would likely consolidate at ~60 before deciding if it has the fuel to begin larger cycle III. If so, the next target will be 93 by Jan. 2023. IF solid black path is realized then will likely see an impulse wave off the 2022 low that has just begun to materialize.
- if we are only in phase b of the wyckoff accumulation, then it is likely the spring will be at a lower low around 14-19. So the dotted black path is second most likely and would look like:
- pop to 46 to complete blue E
- drop to 14-19 to complete (5) of circle C, Z of triple combo, and ultimately larger cycle II
- pop to low 50s to mark the SoS
- retest triangle resistance around mid 30s
- pop to 0.618 at ~60, consolidate, and then continue toward 90s by early 2023
* indication in favor of solid black path materializing is via a proprietary method I developed using stochastic differntial equations. I won't go into the details here, but I have learned not to bet against it when it gives a bullish signal - I got that signal Friday 6/24. Also, the fact that we got bought up at the critical support around the IPO price is a good sign it doesn't need to make a new low... however, if they want to do one more shakeout before markup then they will take it lower
** indication in favor of dotted black line materializing is that the DMI at the daily level does not yet show the properties I'd expect to see if spring was already realized (sorry not shown), it does, however, exhibit the properties of a spring already occuring at the 2-4 hour intervals. Also, I use proprietary control charts as supplemental analysis and they indicate there is moderate probability that after 42-46 there will be risk to 14-19.
Here is my plan of action based on the above, as well as the linked idea of the bigger picture (this is not financial advice):
- Buying shares Monday and will add in the bounce zone of 14-19 if given the opportunity
- Buying Jul 8 2022 35.00 calls and looking to sell when underlying reaches 42 and then 46 next week (both paths are pointing to initial target of 46)
- Buying Oct 21 2022 50.00 calls with expectation we see solid black path, hedging with July 15 30.00 puts in case we see dotted black path - in which case I will exit the Oct calls if TDOC closes below 32 and then re-enter Oct 21 45.00 calls once TDOC bounces at 14-19 using the profits from the hedge.
Bye.
To summarize:
- the main pattern I am watching is the completion of wave C of an expanded flat - this is potentially wave II of a larger cycle, invalidated if price drops below 9. A local bottom at 27.30 on May 12 fits the criteria as the 5th subwave of C of this expanded flat, which would make it a 2.00 retracement of wave B of that EF (wave B is also my primary wave 5 at the all time high (ATH) of 308 back in Feb. 2021.
- (1) - (2) of circle C was a double combo off correction off the ATH that broke down and has been forming the Z of a triple combo off the ATH that encompasses wave circle C of the expanded flat
- (3) - (4) of circle C ended in an expanding triangle around the 1.618 retracement of circle B, this resulted in a nasty gap down to the level that TDOC went public (~28).. this was necessary to realize the 5th and final count of circle C, and also to retest TDOCs IPO level for support.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So now were here. The goal of the big money seems to accumulating shares and establishing a bottom at larger cycle wave II before beginning mark up. The move off the new low has the setup to be very explosive upside for a couple reasons:
- it will simultaneously complete the expanded flat correction and the primary corrective wave
- there is a massive gap to fill to the upside
- potential for short squeeze with over 23% float, and the entire market is a dangerous enviroment for shorts right now if names like TDOC, SPOT, EPAM, etc. (i.e. solid companies with significant near-term upside potential) trigger the squeeze
Here's what the chart and the math is telling me for TDOC - there is room next week to make a run to low-mid 40s (point target 46) and complete E of the new triangle forming at (5) of circle C. There is also evidence that wyckoff accumulation began after the gap down and is now in either phase b or c.
-if c, then the spring was just realized at D of the blue triangle, and the next thing we will see is a sign of strength to a level > blue A. Looking at the trendline resistance through the highs of blue A & C, TDOC just broke above that Friday 6/24, and made a low just above the resistance (indicating potential support). The marginal gap is at 46, so it is possible to see a test of marginal gap fill at 46, which would be the SoS, followed by a backup/retest of the upper triangle for support before markup. I am getting confluence for the initial target from current level = 46, so I am expecting that to be the next level reached from here {confluence: 46 is my time series forecast by July 15, 46 is the extrapolated level that will be realized if RSI makes it to around 70 and becomes oversold - bullish momentum pointing to that, 46 is the 0.382 of the upper part of previous triangle (i.e. (4) of circle C), and 46 is the marginal gap). Thus, if blue D was in fact the spring, then expect the solid black path to materialize and continue to around 60 (0.618 w.r.t (4) of circle C, and just above the nominal gap fill in the mid 50s). Would likely consolidate at ~60 before deciding if it has the fuel to begin larger cycle III. If so, the next target will be 93 by Jan. 2023. IF solid black path is realized then will likely see an impulse wave off the 2022 low that has just begun to materialize.
- if we are only in phase b of the wyckoff accumulation, then it is likely the spring will be at a lower low around 14-19. So the dotted black path is second most likely and would look like:
- pop to 46 to complete blue E
- drop to 14-19 to complete (5) of circle C, Z of triple combo, and ultimately larger cycle II
- pop to low 50s to mark the SoS
- retest triangle resistance around mid 30s
- pop to 0.618 at ~60, consolidate, and then continue toward 90s by early 2023
* indication in favor of solid black path materializing is via a proprietary method I developed using stochastic differntial equations. I won't go into the details here, but I have learned not to bet against it when it gives a bullish signal - I got that signal Friday 6/24. Also, the fact that we got bought up at the critical support around the IPO price is a good sign it doesn't need to make a new low... however, if they want to do one more shakeout before markup then they will take it lower
** indication in favor of dotted black line materializing is that the DMI at the daily level does not yet show the properties I'd expect to see if spring was already realized (sorry not shown), it does, however, exhibit the properties of a spring already occuring at the 2-4 hour intervals. Also, I use proprietary control charts as supplemental analysis and they indicate there is moderate probability that after 42-46 there will be risk to 14-19.
Here is my plan of action based on the above, as well as the linked idea of the bigger picture (this is not financial advice):
- Buying shares Monday and will add in the bounce zone of 14-19 if given the opportunity
- Buying Jul 8 2022 35.00 calls and looking to sell when underlying reaches 42 and then 46 next week (both paths are pointing to initial target of 46)
- Buying Oct 21 2022 50.00 calls with expectation we see solid black path, hedging with July 15 30.00 puts in case we see dotted black path - in which case I will exit the Oct calls if TDOC closes below 32 and then re-enter Oct 21 45.00 calls once TDOC bounces at 14-19 using the profits from the hedge.
Bye.
Commentaire:
At the weekly level there is clear bullish divergence between (3) and (5) of circle C (final wave of expanded flat), which indicates bottom is in at the mid-May lows. Its not as clear on the daily, but if you look just before the beginning of the expanding triangle which is (4), (3) should be labled prior to (and under) the black A.. at that point there was a low on the daily RSI, and then a higher low in the recent blue triangle where my expected (5) of circle C resides. This actually favors the solid black path even more than I indicated in the above analysis.
Commentaire:
It favors bounce because it would help confirm that the expanded flat has been completed - and that is very bullish
