US100 Retest or Reverse?

US100 has been moving very tricky recently, and although it broke the strong support level at 15500 and closed below, it moved all the way up again.

The main trend is still bearish, but we still don’t know if the trend is reversed or it’s just a retest.

Currently, price is on the 61.8% fibo level:

Since we are in a downtrend, If we consider the upside move as a retest:
If price breaks the yellow support level at 15775 to the downside and closes a bearish candle below this level, I expect a drop to the last major low at 15163

On the other hand, if we consider this upside move as a beginning of a new bullish trend, we should wait for an upside breakout and candle closure above the last high at 16020, to expect a rise to the next high around 16261

Personally, I’m on the bearish side for NQ.
What is your outlook? Feel free to share your ideas in the comments.