XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

KOG Report:

16/06/22

In last week’s KOG Report we said we were still bearish on Gold and wanted to see lower pricing targeting that 1800 and below that 1790 level. We did get some bearish movement from the resistance levels above, however, not the move that we wanted. Instead, we had a frustrating range and choppy price action getting traders caught mid-range and being whipsawed from the immediate highs and lows. We shared a range trading chart during the week and updated this during the week showing followers how and where to trade the range without getting stuck. We walked away with a decent week trading this level to level within the range even though the market swung aggressively!

So, what can we expect in the week ahead?

Again, we’re going to keep it simple this week as due to the ranging price action not much has changed in the overall structure of the chart and our view! We are still looking for the higher level of 1860-80 where we want to short the market and the lower level of 1780-60 where we want to go long on the market. In between, we have shown the potential move and what to look out for as well as the levels for intraday trading. So as usual, we will trade this with two extreme scenarios in mind, with the bias being neutral for now and the plan to trade this level to level following Excalibur on an intraday basis!

Scenario 1:

The market opens and we see continued selling pressure in the early session. We will be looking to take this down into the 1810-05 levels where if we find support we see an opportunity to then go long on the market back up towards the 1835 price region as the first destination. That’s all we want for the early part of the week, after that we will then re-assess the markets and the price structure to decide what to do. Ideally we want this to push to the higher levels before we can then decide whether we go short or not!

Scenario 2:

The price pushes up in the early sessions of the week. We will be looking for a break of 1835 and for that region to turn into support. If support is held at the price point, we anticipate a push up towards the 1850 price point and above that 1865. Around the 1865-80 price points we will be waiting to then short the market back down into the 1835, 1810 and below that 1790 price points as the initial targets.

Even though we have a lot of new driving the market our bias remains short. We do however see a push to the upside on the horizon which can take us into that 1870-80 price point and being the last week of trading for the month there is huge potential for this price point to be targeted and completed! Its going to be another difficult week of trading and we would strongly suggest that if you’re new to trading to really tone down your lot sizes. When price accumulates in a range like this where there is high volume they’re going to break and make a move. If you’re in the wrong side of it without a strict risk model in place its inevitable you’re going to lose money, that’s what the market wants! Keep it tight, keep it slick.

Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do.

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As always, trade safe.

KOG