Trend Shift Indicator

TSI -- Early Trend Shift Indicator

PURPOSE: This indicator detects early changes in trends and provides confirmation

In particular, the TSI aims to do the following simultaneously:

• detect trend changes early
  
  
• provide a means of trend confirmation -- while still being early in the cycle change
  
  
• provide an early indication of trend changing away from positive.
  

EMPI indicates shifts in the following ways (see reference image below)

• Positive Shift: fill color red to green
  
• Early Positive Signal: upward green over red (use with caution)
  
  
• Negative Shift: fill color green to red
  
• Early Negative Signal: in green but with decreasing green (use with caution)
  
  
  

Notes de version:

TSI -- Trend Shift Indicator

• Red to Green == BUY
  
• Green to Red == SELL
  

Notes de version:

• Simplification of user interface / options
  
• Reduce the frequency of rapid signal changes.
  

Notes de version:

• User now defines overbought line.
  
• Default 170-180 overbought should work well for 1 and 5 day. The user may set lower (I suggest 140) for 1 month and longer.
  
• User defined Overbought setting defines simple sell signal trigger.
  
• Red X on bottom of indicator should hint at possible reversal.
  

Notes de version:

Corrected signal x's to properly reflect sell points.

• See example IRDM 6M
  

Notes de version:

NOTICE OF ALTERNATE VERSION

An alternate version of this indicator -- called "Trend Shift Indicator v2.0" -- is now available.

• Version 2 is NOT A REPLACEMENT version but an alternate version with a few extra features which may or may not prove useful to you.
  
• Version 1 (this version) will still be the primary script and will updated and supported.
  

Give v2.0 a try. Suggestions are greatly appreciated. Let me know which you find more helpful. Also, please let me know of any things you find problematic.

Bradford Fournier-Eaton

Notes de version:

Update:
- allows smoothing for fewer false signals.
-simplified algorithm.

Notes de version:

Simplification.

Allows changing of smoothing factor.

Earlier trend detection. (see the AMD advanced indication of rally on associated chart)

Notes de version:

Simplification

Example on Chart.

Notes de version:

Simplification of visual interface

Removed Hist - Macd of TSI

Added suggested sell signals.



NOTE: IF YOU LIKED THE MACD on TSI then please look at "TREND SHIFT INTIDCATOR STRATEGY v2.0"

Feedback appreciated.

Notes de version:

Simplified user interface

Removed MACD(TSI(time))

If you liked the macd signal, please use "Trend Shift Indicator Strategy V.2.0"

Notes de version:

Improved sell signal tags

Notes de version:

Edit to Sell Signals

Notes de version:

Macd of indicator values plotted in orange
simplified interface

Notes de version:

1. updated to include optional early buy/sell signal crosses
2. updated to automatically vary sensitivity based on cycle lengths.
3. updated to be more accurate and signal earlier.
4. updated to allow input price to be smoothed before algorithmic manipulation, (or after)

Notes de version:

Changes:

• Auto-adjusting look-back period and ema-lengths based on cycle length.
  
• Highest values plotted above in long, medium, and short look-backs. (see next note)\
  
• Relative height of shaded region is one metric of risk (i.e., highest shaded region in a month would indicate high risk for the intra-monthly trade).
  
• Use orange dotted line crossovers as an early warning -- any discontinuities are due to self-adjusting sensitivity.
  

Usage:

Cautious Buy: orange crossover 0
Buy: Orange increasing + orange crossover 0 + filled region red and increasing quickly towards 0
Confirmed Buy: Orange line > 0 + filled region red-> blue + blue increasing

Cautious Sell: Orange line decreasing quickly + filled blue decreasing
Cautious Sell 2: Blue filled region near max in recent history. (red solid bounding line)
Sell: Orange crossunder 0 + decreasing blue

Notes de version:

MAJOR UPDATE

Updates:

• Dynamic mid and long-term overbought lines based on previous reversal values and volatility -- they will auto-adjust.
  
• TSI's Macd Histogram shaded in grey for early signal information.
  
• More simple interface for changing macd(tsi) parameters.
  
• Conservative & non-intrusive visual caution marks on indicator (small orange and red crosses) which should be useful for visual scanning.
  
• Customized alertcondition templates.
  
• TSI rarely reaches 500, dashed red line is this value. If your value goes much beyond, consider caution.
  
• Cleaner interface.
  

To Do

• Implement adaptive length for smoothing of TSI and Macd of TSI.
  
• Implement adaptive mid and long-term high based on variance/sd of TSI, not just recent average highs and volatility.
  
• Implement correlation to benchmark to scale overbought risk.
  

If you have any suggesstions for features. Please let me know. I'd appreciate some feedback.

Notes de version:

I heard your suggestions and have made the appropriate adjustments...

• simpler interface
  
• To view macd and hist (of the indicator) simply change the transparency to be > 0. (i.e., default is that macd(tsi) is not shown now)
  
• More responsive overall
  

As always feedback is appreciated and acted upon.