AlphaBTC - Long Term Trend Probability Indicator on Bitcoin

WHAT IS ALPHABTC?
AlphaBTC is a consensus-based long-term trend probability indicator designed specifically for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. It combines 9 independent trend detection methodologies into a single probabilistic score ranging from -1 (strong bearish) to +1 (strong bullish). Unlike single-indicator systems that can produce frequent false signals, AlphaBTC requires agreement across multiple analytical frameworks before generating directional signals.

METHODOLOGY - THE 9-INDICATOR CONSENSUS MODEL
Each indicator analyzes trend from a different mathematical perspective, providing a binary vote: +1 (bullish), -1 (bearish), or 0 (neutral). The average of all 9 votes creates the final probability score.

1. AADTREND (Average Absolute Deviation Trend)

Method: Calculates average absolute deviation from a moving average using 7 different MA types (SMA, EMA, HMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, FRAMA)
Logic: Price crossovers above/below AAD-adjusted bands signal trend changes
Purpose: Adapts to varying market volatility conditions

2. GAUSSIAN SMOOTH TREND (GST)

Method: Multi-stage smoothing using DEMA → Gaussian Filter → SMMA → Standard Deviation bands
Logic: Long when price > (SMMA + SDmultiplier), Short when price < (SMMA - SDmultiplier)
Purpose: Removes high-frequency noise while preserving trend structure

3. RTI (RELATIVE TREND INDEX)

Method: Percentile-based ranking system comparing current price to historical upper/lower trend boundaries
Logic: Generates 0-100 index score; >80 = bullish, <20 = bearish
Purpose: Identifies price position within statistical distribution

4. HIGHEST-LOWEST DEVIATIONS TREND

Method: Dual moving average system (100/50 periods) with dynamic standard deviation bands
Logic: Compares highest and lowest boundaries from both MAs to determine trend extremes
Purpose: Identifies breakouts from multi-timeframe volatility envelopes

5. 25-75 PERCENTILE SUPERTREND

Method: Modified SuperTrend using 25th and 75th percentile bands instead of simple highs/lows
Logic: ATR-based trailing stop system anchored to percentile boundaries
Purpose: More stable trend following by filtering outlier price spikes

6. TS VOLATILITY-ADJUSTED EWMA

Method: Exponentially Weighted Moving Average with dynamic period adjustment based on ATR
Logic: Speeds up during high volatility, slows during low volatility
Purpose: Adaptive responsiveness to changing market conditions

7. NORMALIZED KAMA OSCILLATOR

Method: Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average normalized to 0-centered oscillator
Logic: Uses Efficiency Ratio to adjust smoothing constant; >0 = bullish, <0 = bearish
Purpose: Adapts to both trending and ranging markets automatically

8. EHLERS MESA ADAPTIVE MOVING AVERAGE (EMAMA)

Method: John Ehlers' MAMA/FAMA system using Hilbert Transform for cycle period detection
Logic: MAMA crossover FAMA = bullish, crossunder = bearish
Purpose: Advanced DSP-based trend detection with phase-based adaptation

9. EMA Z-SCORE

Method: Statistical z-score applied to EMA values over lookback period
Logic: >1.0 standard deviation = bullish, <0.0 = bearish
Purpose: Identifies statistically significant trend deviations

AGGREGATION METHODOLOGY

Scoring System:

Each indicator produces: +1 (bullish), -1 (bearish), or 0 (neutral)
Total score = sum of all 9 indicators (-9 to +9)
Average score = total / 9 (displayed as -1.00 to +1.00)

Signal Interpretation:

+0.50 to +1.00: STRONG BULLISH (majority consensus)
+0.30 to +0.50: MODERATE BULLISH
-0.30 to +0.30: WEAK/NEUTRAL (mixed signals)
-0.50 to -0.30: MODERATE BEARISH
-1.00 to -0.50: STRONG BEARISH (majority consensus)

Bar Coloring:

Cyan bars: Bullish consensus (score > 0)
Magenta bars: Bearish consensus (score < 0)

WHY THIS APPROACH WORKS

Traditional Single-Indicator Problems:

Overfitting to specific market conditions
High false signal rates during consolidation
No mechanism for confidence measurement

AlphaBTC Multi-Consensus Solution:

Diversification: 9 uncorrelated methodologies reduce individual indicator bias
Robustness: Requires majority agreement before signaling (prevents whipsaws)
Adaptability: Mix of momentum, volatility, and statistical indicators captures multiple market regimes
Confidence Measurement: Score magnitude indicates signal strength

Why These 9 Specific Indicators:

AADTrend - Volatility adaptation
GST - Noise filtering
RTI - Statistical positioning
HL Deviations - Multi-timeframe breakouts
Percentile ST - Robust trend following
Volatility EWMA - Dynamic responsiveness
KAMA - Efficiency-based adaptation
EMAMA - Cycle-period awareness
EMA Z-Score - Statistical confirmation

This combination covers:

Trend following (ST, EWMA, KAMA, EMAMA)
Volatility adaptation (AAD, GST, HL Dev, EWMA)
Statistical validation (RTI, Z-Score)
Adaptive smoothing (KAMA, EMAMA, Gaussian)

No single indicator covers all these bases. The ensemble approach creates a more reliable system.

VISUAL COMPONENTS

1. Score Table (Bottom Right):

Shows all 9 individual indicator scores
Color-coded: Green (bullish), Red (bearish), Gray (neutral)
Individual signals visible for transparency

2. Main Score Display (Bottom Center):

LTPI SCORE: The averaged consensus (-1.00 to +1.00)
SIGNAL: Current directional bias (LONG/SHORT)
STRENGTH: Signal confidence (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK)

3. Bar Coloring:

Visual trend indication directly on price bars
Cyan = bullish consensus
Magenta = bearish consensus

HOW TO USE

For Long-Term Position Trading (Recommended):

Wait for average score to cross above 0 for long entries
Exit when score crosses below 0 or reverses to negative territory
Use STRENGTH indicator - only trade STRONG or MODERATE signals

For Trend Confirmation:

Use AlphaBTC as confluence with your existing strategy
Enter trades only when AlphaBTC agrees with your analysis
Avoid counter-trend trades when consensus is strong (|score| > 0.5)

Risk Management:

STRONG signals (|score| > 0.5): Full position size
MODERATE signals (0.3-0.5): Reduced position size
WEAK signals (< 0.3): Avoid trading or use for exits only

Best Timeframes:

1D chart: Primary trend identification for swing/position trading
4H chart: Intermediate trend for multi-day holds
1H chart: Short-term trend for active trading

Not Recommended:

Scalping (too many indicators create lag)
Timeframes < 1H (designed for longer-term trends)

SETTINGS EXPLAINED

Each of the 9 indicators has customizable parameters in its dedicated settings group:

AadTrend Settings:

Average Length (48): Base period for deviation calculation
AAD Multiplier (1.35): Band width adjustment
Average Type: Choose from 7 different MA types

GST Settings:

DEMA Length (9), Gaussian Length (4), SMMA Length (13)
SD Length (66): Standard deviation lookback
Multipliers for upper/lower bands

RTI Settings:

Trend Length (75): Historical data points for boundary calculation
Sensitivity (88%): Percentile threshold
Long/Short Thresholds (80/20): Entry trigger levels

HL Deviations Settings:

Dual MA system (100/50 periods)
Separate deviation coefficients for upper/lower bands

25-75 Percentile ST Settings:

SuperTrend Length (100)
Multiplier (2.35)
Percentile Length (50)

EWMA Settings:

Length (81), ATR Lookback (14)
Volatility Factor (1.0) for dynamic adjustment

KAMA Settings:

Fast/Slow Periods (50/100)
Efficiency Ratio Period (8)
Normalization Lookback (53)

EMAMA Settings:

Fast/Slow Limits (0.08/0.01) for cycle adaptation

EMA Z-Score Settings:

EMA Length (50)
Lookback Period (25)
Threshold levels for long/short signals

ALERTS

Four alert conditions available:

LTPI Long Signal: When average score crosses above 0
LTPI Short Signal: When average score crosses below 0
LTPI Long: Any bar with bullish consensus
LTPI Short: Any bar with bearish consensus


IMPORTANT NOTES

This is a CONSENSUS indicator - it shows probability, not prediction
Designed for Bitcoin
Best for long-term trend identification (days to weeks, not minutes to hours)
Lagging by design - prioritizes accuracy over speed
Not a standalone strategy - use with proper risk management and position sizing
Requires minimum 100+ bars of historical data for proper indicator calculation