QuantNomad - Simple Custom Screener in PineScriptQuite often I need to run screeners with the custom condition, but unfortunately, in TradingView it's impossible.
I created an example script to show how you can create a simple custom screener in Pine Script on your own.
It's not very good, it requires some manual adjustments, it can be improved in some ways, but I think it might work for some tasks.
What do you think? Do you have a better way to implement custom screeners in TradingView?
To run your own conditions you need to implement them in:
customFunc() function and for every ticker you want to include in your search add 2 lines like these with newly defined variable:
s1 = security('BTCUSD', '1', customFunc())
and
scr_label := s1 ? scr_label + 'BTCUSD\n' : scr_label
I'm not sure that it will work well for more than a few dozen tickers.
But I hope it will be helpful for you.
And remember:
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Recherche dans les scripts pour "文华财经tick价格"
Chiki-Poki BFXLS Longs Shorts Abs Normalized Volume Pro by RRBChiki-Poki BFXLS Longs vs Shorts Absolute Normalized Volume Value Pro by RagingRocketBull 2018
Version 1.0
This indicator displays Longs vs Shorts in a side by side graph, shows volume's absolute price value and normalized volume of Longs/Shorts for the current asset. This allows for more accurate L/S comparisons (like a log scale for volume) since volume on spot exchanges (Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Coinbase etc) is measured in coins traded, not USD traded. Similarly, L/S is usually the amount of coins in open L/S positions, not their total USD value. On Bitmex and other futures exchanges volume is measured in USD traded, so you don't need to apply the Volume Absolute Price Value checkbox to compare L/S. You should always check first whether your source is measured in coins or USD.
Chiki-Poki BFXLS primarily uses *SHORTS/LONGS feeds from Bitfinex for the current crypto asset, but you can specify custom L/S source tickers instead.
This 2-in-1 works both in the Main Chart and in the indicator pane below. You can switch between Main/Sub Window panes using RMB on the indicator's name and selecting Move To/Pane Above/Below.
This indicator doesn't use volume of the current asset. It uses L/S ticker's OHLC as a source for SHORTS/LONGS volumes instead. Essentially L/S => L/S Volume == L/S
Features:
- Display Longs vs Shorts side by side graph for the current crypto asset, i.e. for BTCUSD - BTCUSDLONGS/BTCUSDSHORTS, for ETHUSD - ETHUSDLONGS/ETHUSDSHORTS etc.
- Use custom OHLC ticker sources for Longs/Shorts from different exchanges/crypto assets with/without exchange prefix.
- Plot Longs/Shorts as lines or candles
- Show/Hide L/S, Diff, MAs, ATH/ATL
- Use Longs/Shorts Volume Absolute Price Value (Price * L/S Volume) instead of Coins Traded in open L/S positions to compare total L/S value/capitalization
- Normalize L/S Volume using Price / Price MA / L/S Volume MA
- Supports any existing type of MA: SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA etc
- Volume Absolute Price Value / Normalize also works on candles
- Oscillator mode with negative axis (works in both Main Chart/Subwindow panes).
- Highlight L/S Volume spikes above L/S MAs in both lines/oscillator.
- Change L/S MA color based on a number of last rising/falling L/S bars, colorize candles
- Display L/S volume as 1000s, mlns, or blns using alpha multiplier
1. based on BFXLS Longs vs Shorts and Compare Style, uses plot*, security and custom hma functions
2. swma has a fixed length = 4, alma and linreg have additional offset and smoothing params
Notes:
- Make sure that Left Price Scale shows up with Auto Fit Data enabled. You can reattach indicator to a different scale in Style.
- It is not recommended to switch modes multiple times due to TradingView's scale reattachment bugs. You should switch between Main Chart and Sub Window only once.
- When the USD price of an asset is lower you can trade more coins but capitalization value won't be as significant as when there are less coins for a higher price. Same goes for Shorts/Longs.
Current ATH in shorts doesn't trigger a squeeze because its total value is now far less than before and we are in a bear market where it's normal to have a higher number of shorts.
- You should always subtract Hedged L/S from L/S because hedged positions are temporary - used to preserve the value of the main position in the opposite direction and should be disregarded as such.
- Low margin rates increase the probability of a move in an underlying direction because it is cheaper. High margin rates => the market is anticipating a move in this direction, thus a more expensive rate. Sudden 5-10x rate raises imply a possible reversal soon. high - 0.1%, avg - 0.01-0.02%, low - 0.001-0.005%
You can also check out:
- BFXLS Longs/Shorts on BFXData
- Bitfinex L/S margin rates and Hedged L/S on datamish
- Bitmex L/S on Coinfarm.online
ec tEST cODE FOR pERCENT DIFERENCE ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// Copyright by HPotter v1.0 04/04/2015
// Percent difference between price and MA
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
study(title="Percent difference between price and MA")
source = close
useCurrentRes = input(true, title="Use Current Chart Resolution?")
resCustom = input(title="Use Different Timeframe? Uncheck Box Above", type=resolution, defval="60")
smd = input(true, title="Show MacD & Signal Line? Also Turn Off Dots Below")
sd = input(true, title="Show Dots When MacD Crosses Signal Line?")
sh = input(true, title="Show Histogram?")
macd_colorChange = input(true,title="Change MacD Line Color-Signal Line Cross?")
hist_colorChange = input(true,title="MacD Histogram 4 Colors?")
res = useCurrentRes ? period : resCustom
fastLength = input(12, minval=1), slowLength=input(26,minval=1)
signalLength=input(9,minval=1)
fastMA = ema(source, fastLength)
slowMA = ema(source, slowLength)
Length = input(9, minval=1)
Length2= input(36,minval=1)
Length3= input(81,minval=1)
AveragePrice= input(9,minval=1)
Length5= input(3,minval=1)
xSMA = (sma(close, Length)+sma(close, Length2)+sma(close, Length3))/3
pSAM=sma(close, AveragePrice)
nRes = (pSAM - xSMA) * 100 / close
signalnRes = sma(nRes, signalLength)
macd = nRes
signal = sma(macd, signalLength)
hist = macd - signal
outMacD = security(tickerid, res, macd)
outSignal = security(tickerid, res, signal)
outHist = security(tickerid, res, hist)
histA_IsUp = outHist > outHist and outHist > 0
histA_IsDown = outHist < outHist and outHist > 0
histB_IsDown = outHist < outHist and outHist <= 0
histB_IsUp = outHist > outHist and outHist <= 0
//MacD Color Definitions
macd_IsAbove = outMacD >= outSignal
macd_IsBelow = outMacD < outSignal
plot_color = hist_colorChange ? histA_IsUp ? aqua : histA_IsDown ? blue : histB_IsDown ? red : histB_IsUp ? maroon :yellow :gray
macd_color = macd_colorChange ? macd_IsAbove ? lime : red : red
signal_color = macd_colorChange ? macd_IsAbove ? yellow : yellow : lime
circleYPosition = outSignal
// MA COLOR DEFINITION
maColor = change(nRes)>0 ? green : change(nRes)<0 ? red : na
mA_IsAbove = nRes> 0
mA_IsBelow = nRes< 0
plot( nRes, color=maColor, style=line, title="MMA", linewidth=2)
//plot(smd and signalnRes ? signalnRes : na, title="Signal Line", color=signal_color, style=line ,linewidth=2)
//plot(smd and outMacD ? outMacD : na, title="MACD", color=macd_color, linewidth=4)
//plot(smd and outSignal ? outSignal : na, title="Signal Line", color=signal_color, style=line ,linewidth=2)
//plot(sh and outHist ? outHist : na, title="Histogram", color=plot_color, style=histogram, linewidth=4)
plot(sd and cross(outMacD, outSignal) ? circleYPosition : na, title="Cross", style=circles, linewidth=4, color=macd_color)
hline(0, '0 Line', linestyle=solid, linewidth=2, color=white)
//////ALERT cONDITION////
src = input(close)
ma_1 = sma(src, 20)
ma_2 = sma(src, 10)
c = cross(ma_1, ma_2)
alertcondition(c, title='Red crosses blue', message='Red and blue have crossed!')
d = cross(outMacD, outSignal)
alertcondition(d, title='GOING DOWN', message='SELL!')
//
//e = cross(outSignal, outMacD)
//alertcondition(E, title='GOING UP', message='BUY!')
BTC World Price: Multi-Exchange VWAPBTC World Price: Multi-Exchange VWAP
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WHAT IT DOES
What you see above are not Bitmex candles, but this indicator's.
Bitcoin is listed on multiple exchanges. Many people have called for a single global index that would quote BTC price and volume across all exchanges: this script is such a virtual aggregate (formerly: Multi-Listed , Volume-Weighted Average Price ).
It will, independently for each tick, for any time-frame:
- Quote the price (O, H, L, C) and volume from Bitfinex (USD), Binance (USDT), bitFlyer (Yen), Bithumb (S. Korean Won), Coinbase (USD), Kraken (EUR) and even Bitmex (USD Contracts).
- Weight each price with the corresponding volume of the exchange.
- Quote the FOREX conversion rate in USD for each currency (USDJPY etc.)
- Finally return global average price (candles) in USD.
- Additionally provide (H+L)/2 etc. values.
No more "on Coinbase this" or "on Bitstamp that", you've now got a global overview!
See CoinMarketCap: Markets for reference. I've included alternative exchanges in the comments at the top of the script.
__________________________
HOW TO USE IT
Basically just add it to your chart and use the indicator's candles instead of the chart's main ticker.
By default, BTC World Price will display candles only, but you can also display OHLC & averages (in whichever style you want).
You may indeed want to hide the main symbol (top-left corner, click the 'eye' button next to its name), or switch it to something else than candles/bars (e.g. line).
Make sure "Scale Price Chart Only" is disabled if you want to use the auto-zoom feature. (if other indicators are messing your zoom, you can try to select "Line with Breaks" or "Area with Breaks" to allow these to overflow from the main window)
By clicking the triangle next to the indicator's name, you can select "Visual Order" (e.g "Bring to Front").
You can select regular Candles or Heikin-Ashi in Options.
In the Format > Inputs tab, you can select which exchanges to quote. By default, all of them are enabled.
The script also exposes the following typical values to the backend, which you can use as Price Source for other indicators: (e.g. MA, RSI, in their "Format > Input" tab)
Open Price (grey)
High Price (green)
Low Price (red)
Close Price (white)
(H + L)/2 (light blue)
(H + L + C)/3 (blue)
(O + H + L + C)/4 (purple)
They are all hidden by default (by means of maximum transparency).
In the Format > Style tab, you can change their color, transparency and style (line, area, etc), as well as uncheck Candles and Wicks to hide these.
If you are using "Indicator Last Value" and want to clear the clutter from all these values, simply uncheck them in Style. They will still be available as Price Source for other indicators.
You can also choose to scale it to the left, right (default) or "screen" (no scaling).
Once you're satisfied with your Style, you may click "Default"> "Save as default" in the botton-left. Everytime you load the indicator, it will look the same. ("Reset Settings" will reset to the script's defaults)
__________________________
Please leave feedback below in comments or pm me directly for bugs and suggestions.
SMART4TRADER-Margin ZONEIndicator based on marginal zones (according to Mityukov Sergey). In open source.
Formula for calculating the margin:
Margin size / cost tick * minimum price change
Example:
EURUSD = 2100 $ / 6.25 $ * 0.00005 points = 0.01680 points
....
For currency pairs where USD is in the first place it is necessary to write so that the indicator is taken away from zero
Iff (ticker == "USDCAD", (0- (950/5 * 0.00005)),
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Индикатор на основе маржинальных зон (по Митюкову Сергею). В открытом исходном коде.
Формула рассчета маржи:
размер маржи / стоимость тика * минимальное ценовое изменение
Пример:
EURUSD = 2100 $ / 6.25 $ * 0.00005 points = 0.01680 points
....
Для валютных пар где USD стоит на первом месте нужно писать так, чтобы показатель отнимался от нуля
iff (ticker=="USDCAD", (0-(950/5*0.00005)),
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Convert Yuan value symbols to USDIGNORE PREVIOUS SCRIPT/POST (titled: "yuan normiz")
If you like to look add symbols that are valued in China's Yuan and want to convert them to USD accurately then this is the perfect script for you.
"I'm not sure if this script is for me. Does my setup apply here?"
If either of these resemble your chart setup then this is for you:
Example 1: You have COINBASE:BTCUSD on your main chart often add to compare Bitstamp:btcusd and Okcoin:btccny.
Example 2: You have SPY or SPX (or DJIA etc) as your main chart but like to add other composites to compare like SSE(Shanghai Stock Exchange index) to your main chart.
This takes the symbol of your choice (default is BTCCHINA:BTCCNY) that is expressed in Yuan and divides it by the corresponding value of IDC's USDCNH ticker. Not the last value of USDCNH, but the respective tick mark----BTCCNY's close 3 months ago is divided by USDCNH's close 3 months ago.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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FlowSpike ES — BB • RSI • VWAP + AVWAP + News MuteThis indicator is purpose-built for E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures traders, combining volatility bands, momentum filters, and session-anchored levels into a streamlined tool for intraday execution.
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Suppresses signals around scheduled economic releases (customizable windows in ET), helping traders avoid whipsaw conditions.
• Clean Alerts
Long/short alerts are generated only when all conditions align, with optional bar-close confirmation.
Why It’s Tailored for ES Futures:
• Designed around ES tick size (0.25) and volatility structure.
• Session settings respect RTH hours (09:30–16:00 ET), the period where most liquidity and institutional flows concentrate.
• ATR thresholds and RSI bands are pre-tuned for ES market behavior, reducing the need for manual optimization.
⸻
This is not a generic indicator—it’s a futures-focused tool created to align with the way ES trades day after day. Whether you scalp the open, manage intraday swings, or align to weekly/monthly anchored flows, FlowSpike ES gives you a clear, rules-based signal framework.
US Net Liquidity + M2 / US Debt (FRED)US Net Liquidity + M2 / US Debt
🧩 What this chart shows
This indicator plots the ratio of US Net Liquidity + M2 Money Supply divided by Total Public Debt.
US Net Liquidity is defined here as the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (WALCL) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) and the Overnight Reverse Repo facility (ON RRP).
M2 Money Supply represents the broad pool of liquid money circulating in the economy.
US Debt uses the Federal Government’s total outstanding debt.
By combining net liquidity with M2, then dividing by total debt, this chart provides a structural view of how much monetary “fuel” is in the system relative to the size of the federal debt load.
🧮 Formula
Ratio
=
(
Fed Balance Sheet
−
(
TGA
+
ON RRP
)
)
+
M2
Total Public Debt
Ratio=
Total Public Debt
(Fed Balance Sheet−(TGA+ON RRP))+M2
An optional normalization feature scales the ratio to start at 100 on the first valid bar, making long-term trends easier to compare.
🔎 Why it matters
Liquidity vs. Debt Growth: The numerator (Net Liquidity + M2) captures the monetary resources available to markets, while the denominator (Debt) reflects the expanding obligation of the federal government.
Market Signal: Historically, shifts in net liquidity and money supply relative to debt have coincided with major turning points in risk assets like equities and Bitcoin.
Context: A rising ratio may suggest that liquidity conditions are improving relative to debt expansion, which can be supportive for risk assets. Conversely, a falling ratio may highlight tightening conditions or debt outpacing liquidity growth.
⚙️ How to use it
Overlay this chart against S&P 500, Bitcoin, or gold to analyze correlations with asset performance.
Watch for trend inflections—does the ratio bottom before equities rally, or peak before risk-off periods?
Use normalization for long historical comparisons, or raw values to see the absolute ratio.
📊 Data sources
This indicator pulls from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) tickers available in TradingView:
WALCL: Fed balance sheet
RRPONTSYD: Overnight Reverse Repo
WTREGEN: Treasury General Account
M2SL: M2 money stock
GFDEBTN: Total federal public debt
⚠️ Notes
Some FRED series are updated weekly, others monthly—set your chart timeframe accordingly.
If any ticker is unavailable in your plan, replace it with the equivalent FRED symbol provided in TradingView.
This indicator is intended for macro analysis, not short-term trading signals.
Multi-Strategy Trading Screener SummaryI only combined famous scripts, all thanks to wonderful scripts and community out there .
ThankYou !
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Core Architecture
Multi-Symbol Analysis: Tracks up to 5 configurable tickers simultaneously
Multi-Timeframe Support: Each symbol can use different timeframes
Real-Time Dashboard: Color-coded table displaying all signals and analysis
Trend Validation: All signals include trend alignment confirmation
Integrated Trading Strategies
1. Breaker Blocks (Order Blocks)
Detects institutional order blocks using swing analysis
Tracks when blocks are broken and become "breaker blocks"
Monitors retests of broken levels
Shows trend alignment (✓ aligned, ⚠️ misaligned)
2. Chandelier Exit
ATR-based trend-following exit system
Provides BUY/SELL signals based on dynamic stop levels
Uses configurable ATR multiplier and lookback period
3. Smart Money Breakout
Channel breakout detection with volatility normalization
Identifies accumulation/distribution phases
Generates persistent BUY/SELL signals on breakouts
4. Trendline Breakout
Dynamic trendline detection using pivot highs/lows
Calculates trendline slopes and breakout points
Provides BUY signals on upward breaks, SELL on downward breaks
Dashboard Columns Explained
Symbol: Ticker being analyzed
Trend: Overall SuperTrend direction (🟢 UP / 🔴 DOWN / ⚪ FLAT)
Timeframe: Analysis timeframe with clock icon
Breaker Block: Type (Bullish/Bearish) with trend alignment indicator
Status: Price position relative to breaker block (Inside/Approaching/Far)
Retests: Number of times the broken level was retested (indicates level strength)
Volume: Volume associated with the order block formation
Chandelier: BUY/SELL signals from Chandelier Exit strategy
Smart Money: BUY/SELL signals from breakout detection
Trendline: BUY/SELL signals from trendline breakouts
Key Features
No HOLD States: All signals show definitive BUY (🟢) or SELL (🔴) only
Persistent Signals: Signals remain active until opposite conditions trigger
Color Coding: Visual distinction between bullish (green) and bearish (red) signals
Trend Alignment: Enhanced accuracy through trend confirmation logic
This screener provides a comprehensive view of market conditions across multiple strategies, helping identify high-probability trading opportunities when signals align.
Live Market - Performance MonitorLive Market — Performance Monitor
Study material (no code) — step-by-step training guide for learners
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1) What this tool is — short overview
This indicator is a live market performance monitor designed for learning. It scans price, volume and volatility, detects order blocks and trendline events, applies filters (volume & ATR), generates trade signals (BUY/SELL), creates simple TP/SL trade management, and renders a compact dashboard summarizing market state, risk and performance metrics.
Use it to learn how multi-factor signals are constructed, how Greeks-style sensitivity is replaced by volatility/ATR reasoning, and how a live dashboard helps monitor trade quality.
________________________________________
2) Quick start — how a learner uses it (step-by-step)
1. Add the indicator to a chart (any ticker / timeframe).
2. Open inputs and review the main groups: Order Block, Trendline, Signal Filters, Display.
3. Start with defaults (OB periods ≈ 7, ATR multiplier 0.5, volume threshold 1.2) and observe the dashboard on the last bar.
4. Walk the chart back in time (use the last-bar update behavior) and watch how signals, order blocks, trendlines, and the performance counters change.
5. Run the hands-on labs below to build intuition.
________________________________________
3) Main configurable inputs (what you can tweak)
• Order Block Relevant Periods (default ~7): number of consecutive candles used to define an order block.
• Min. Percent Move for Valid OB (threshold): minimum percent move required for a valid order block.
• Number of OB Channels: how many past order block lines to keep visible.
• Trendline Period (tl_period): pivot lookback for detecting highs/lows used to draw trendlines.
• Use Wicks for Trendlines: whether pivot uses wicks or body.
• Extension Bars: how far trendlines are projected forward.
• Use Volume Filter + Volume Threshold Multiplier (e.g., 1.2): requires volume to be greater than multiplier × average volume.
• Use ATR Filter + ATR Multiplier: require bar range > ATR × multiplier to filter noise.
• Show Targets / Table settings / Colors for visualization.
________________________________________
4) Core building blocks — what the script computes (plain language)
Price & trend:
• Spot / LTP: current close price.
• EMA 9 / 21 / 50: fast, medium, slow moving averages to define short/medium trend.
o trend_bullish: EMA9 > EMA21 > EMA50
o trend_bearish: EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA50
o trend_neutral: otherwise
Volatility & noise:
• ATR (14): average true range used for dynamic target and filter sizing.
• dynamic_zone = ATR × atr_multiplier: minimum bar range required for meaningful move.
• Annualized volatility: stdev of price changes × sqrt(252) × 100 — used to classify volatility (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW).
Momentum & oscillators:
• RSI 14: overbought/oversold indicator (thresholds 70/30).
• MACD: EMA(12)-EMA(26) and a 9-period signal line; histogram used for momentum direction and strength.
• Momentum (ta.mom 10): raw momentum over 10 bars.
Mean reversion / band context:
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): upper, mid, lower.
o price_position measures where price sits inside the band range as 0–100.
Volume metrics:
• avg_volume = SMA(volume, 20) and volume_spike = volume > avg_volume × volume_threshold
o volume_ratio = volume / avg_volume
Support & Resistance:
• support_level = lowest low over 20 bars
• resistance_level = highest high over 20 bars
• current_position = percent of price between support & resistance (0–100)
________________________________________
5) Order Block detection — concept & logic
What it tries to find: a bar (the base) followed by N candles in the opposite direction (a classical order block setup), with a minimum % move to qualify. The script records the high/low of the base candle, averages them, and plots those levels as OB channels.
How learners should think about it (conceptual):
1. An order block is a signature area where institutions (theory) left liquidity — often seen as a large bar followed by a sequence of directional candles.
2. This indicator uses a configurable number of subsequent candles to confirm that the pattern exists.
3. When found, it stores and displays the base candle’s high/low area so students can see how price later reacts to those zones.
Implementation note for learners: the tool keeps a limited history of OB lines (ob_channels). When new OBs exceed the count, the oldest lines are removed — good practice to avoid clutter.
________________________________________
6) Trendline detection — idea & interpretation
• The script finds pivot highs and lows using a symmetric lookback (tl_period and half that as right/left).
• It then computes a trendline slope from successive pivots and projects the line forward (extension_bars).
• Break detection: Resistance break = close crosses above the projected resistance line; Support break = close crosses below projected support.
Learning tip: trendlines here are computed from pivot points and time. Watch how changing tl_period (bigger = smoother, fewer pivots) alters the trendlines and break signals.
________________________________________
7) Signal generation & filters — step-by-step
1. Primary triggers:
o Bullish trigger: order block bullish OR resistance trendline break.
o Bearish trigger: bearish order block OR support trendline break.
2. Filters applied (both must pass unless disabled):
o Volume filter: volume must be > avg_volume × volume_threshold.
o ATR filter: bar range (high-low) must exceed ATR × atr_multiplier.
o Not in an existing trade: new trades only start if trade_active is false.
3. Trend confirmation:
o The primary trigger is only confirmed if trend is bullish/neutral for buys or bearish/neutral for sells (EMA alignment).
4. Result:
o When confirmed, a long or short trade is activated with TP/SL calculated from ATR multiples.
________________________________________
8) Trade management — what the tool does after a signal
• Entry management: the script marks a trade as trade_active and sets long_trade or short_trade flags.
• TP & SL rules:
o Long: TP = high + 2×ATR ; SL = low − 1×ATR
o Short: TP = low − 2×ATR ; SL = high + 1×ATR
• Monitoring & exit:
o A trade closes when price reaches TP or SL.
o When TP/SL hit, the indicator updates win_count and total_pnl using a very simple calculation (difference between TP/SL and previous close).
o Visual lines/labels are drawn for TP and updated as the trade runs.
Important learner notes:
• The script does not store a true entry price (it uses close in its P&L math), so PnL is an approximation — treat this as a learning proxy, not a position accounting system.
• There’s no sizing, slippage, or fee accounted — students must manually factor these when translating to real trades.
• This indicator is not a backtesting strategy; strategy.* functions would be needed for rigorous backtest results.
________________________________________
9) Signal strength & helper utilities
• Signal strength is a composite score (0–100) made up of four signals worth 25 points each:
1. RSI extreme (overbought/oversold) → 25
2. Volume spike → 25
3. MACD histogram magnitude increasing → 25
4. Trend existence (bull or bear) → 25
• Progress bars (text glyphs) are used to visually show RSI and signal strength on the table.
Learning point: composite scoring is a way to combine orthogonal signals — study how changing weights changes outcomes.
________________________________________
10) Dashboard — how to read each section (walkthrough)
The dashboard is split into sections; here's how to interpret them:
1. Market Overview
o LTP / Change%: immediate price & daily % change.
2. RSI & MACD
o RSI value plus progress bar (overbought 70 / oversold 30).
o MACD histogram sign indicates bullish/bearish momentum.
3. Volume Analysis
o Volume ratio (current / average) and whether there’s a spike.
4. Order Block Status
o Buy OB / Sell OB: the average base price of detected order blocks or “No Signal.”
5. Signal Status
o 🔼 BUY or 🔽 SELL if confirmed, or ⚪ WAIT.
o No-trade vs Active indicator summarizing market readiness.
6. Trend Analysis
o Trend direction (from EMAs), market sentiment score (composite), volatility level and band/position metrics.
7. Performance
o Win Rate = wins / signals (percentage)
o Total PnL = cumulative PnL (approximate)
o Bull / Bear Volume = accumulated volumes attributable to signals
8. Support & Resistance
o 20-bar highest/lowest — use as nearby reference points.
9. Risk & R:R
o Risk Level from ATR/price as a percent.
o R:R Ratio computed from TP/SL if a trade is active.
10. Signal Strength & Active Trade Status
• Numeric strength + progress bar and whether a trade is currently active with TP/SL display.
________________________________________
11) Alerts — what will notify you
The indicator includes pre-built alert triggers for:
• Bullish confirmed signal
• Bearish confirmed signal
• TP hit (long/short)
• SL hit (long/short)
• No-trade zone
• High signal strength (score > 75%)
Training use: enable alerts during a replay session to be notified when the indicator would have signalled.
________________________________________
12) Labs — hands-on exercises for learners (step-by-step)
Lab A — Order Block recognition
1. Pick a 15–30 minute timeframe on a liquid ticker.
2. Use default OB periods (7). Mark each time the dashboard shows a Buy/Sell OB.
3. Manually inspect the chart at the base candle and the following sequence — draw the OB zone by hand and watch later price reactions to it.
4. Repeat with OB periods 5 and 10; note stability vs noise.
Lab B — Trendline break confirmation
1. Increase trendline period (e.g., 20), watch trendlines form from pivots.
2. When a resistance break is flagged, compare with MACD & volume: was momentum aligned?
3. Note false breaks vs confirmed moves — change extension_bars to see projection effects.
Lab C — Filter sensitivity
1. Toggle Use Volume Filter off, and record the number and quality of signals in a 2-day window.
2. Re-enable volume filter and change threshold from 1.2 → 1.6; note how many low-quality signals are filtered out.
Lab D — Trade management simulation
1. For each signalled trade, record the time, close entry approximation, TP, SL, and eventual hit/miss.
2. Compute actual PnL if you had entered at the open of the next bar to compare with the script’s PnL math.
3. Tabulate win rate and average R:R.
Lab E — Performance review & improvement
1. Build a spreadsheet of signals over 30–90 periods with columns: Date, Signal type, Entry price (real), TP, SL, Exit, PnL, Notes.
2. Analyze which filters or indicators contributed most to winners vs losers and adjust weights.
________________________________________
13) Common pitfalls, assumptions & implementation notes (things to watch)
• P&L simplification: total_pnl uses close as a proxy entry price. Real entry/exit prices and slippage are not recorded — so PnL is approximate.
• No position sizing or money management: the script doesn’t compute position size from equity or risk percent.
• Signal confirmation logic: composite "signal_strength" is a simple 4×25 point scheme — explore different weights or additional signals.
• Order block detection nuance: the script defines the base candle and checks the subsequent sequence. Be sure to verify whether the intended candle direction (base being bullish vs bearish) aligns with academic/your trading definition — read the code carefully and test.
• Trendline slope over time: slope is computed using timestamps; small differences may make lines sensitive on very short timeframes — using bar_index differences is usually more stable.
• Not a true backtester: to evaluate performance statistically you must transform the logic into a strategy script that places hypothetical orders and records exact entry/exit prices.
________________________________________
14) Suggested improvements for advanced learners
• Record true entry price & timestamp for accurate PnL.
• Add position sizing: risk % per trade using SL distance and account size.
• Convert to strategy. (Pine Strategy)* to run formal backtests with equity curves, drawdowns, and metrics (Sharpe, Sortino).
• Log trades to an external spreadsheet (via alerts + webhook) for offline analysis.
• Add statistics: average win/loss, expectancy, max drawdown.
• Add additional filters: news time blackout, market session filters, multi-timeframe confirmation.
• Improve OB detection: combine wick/body, volume spike at base bar, and liquidity sweep detection.
________________________________________
15) Glossary — quick definitions
• ATR (Average True Range): measure of typical range; used to size targets and stops.
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): trend smoothing giving more weight to recent prices.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): momentum oscillator; >70 overbought, <30 oversold.
• MACD: momentum oscillator using difference of two EMAs.
• Bollinger Bands: volatility bands around SMA.
• Order Block: a base candle area with subsequent confirmation candles; a zone of institutional interest (learning model).
• Pivot High/Low: local turning point defined by candles on both sides.
• Signal Strength: combined score from multiple indicators.
• Win Rate: proportion of signals that hit TP vs total signals.
• R:R (Risk:Reward): ratio of potential reward (TP distance) to risk (entry to SL).
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16) Limitations & assumptions (be explicit)
• This is an indicator for learning — not a trading robot or broker connection.
• No slippage, fees, commissions or tie-in to real orders are considered.
• The logic is heuristic (rule-of-thumb), not a guarantee of performance.
• Results are sensitive to timeframe, market liquidity, and parameter choices.
________________________________________
17) Practical classroom / study plan (4 sessions)
• Session 1 — Foundations: Understand EMAs, ATR, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands. Run the indicator and watch how these numbers change on a single day.
• Session 2 — Zones & Filters: Study order blocks and trendlines. Test volume & ATR filters and note changes in false signals.
• Session 3 — Simulated trading: Manually track 20 signals, compute real PnL and compare to the dashboard.
• Session 4 — Improvement plan: Propose changes (e.g., better PnL accounting, alternative OB rule) and test their impact.
________________________________________
18) Quick reference checklist for each signal
1. Was an order block or trendline break detected? (primary trigger)
2. Did volume meet threshold? (filter)
3. Did ATR filter (bar size) show a real move? (filter)
4. Was trend aligned (EMA 9/21/50)? (confirmation)
5. Signal confirmed → mark entry approximation, TP, SL.
6. Monitor dashboard (Signal Strength, Volatility, No-trade zone, R:R).
7. After exit, log real entry/exit, compute actual PnL, update spreadsheet.
________________________________________
19) Educational caveat & final note
This tool is built for training and analysis: it helps you see how common technical building blocks combine into trade ideas, but it is not a trading recommendation. Use it to develop judgment, to test hypotheses, and to design robust systems with proper backtesting and risk control before risking capital.
________________________________________
20) Disclaimer (must include)
Training & Educational Only — This material and the indicator are provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full backtesting and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.
________________________________________
P/B Ratio (Per Share) vs Median + Bollinger Band- 📝 This indicator highlights potential buying opportunities by analyzing the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio in relation to Bollinger Bands and its historical median.
- 🎯 The goal is to provide a visually intuitive signal for value-oriented entries, especially when valuation compression aligns with historical context.
- 💡 Vertical green shading is applied when the P/B ratio drops below the lower Bollinger Band, which is calculated directly from the P/B ratio itself — not price. This condition often signals the ticker may be oversold.
- 🟢 Lighter green appears when the ratio is below the lower band but above the median, suggesting a possible shorter-term entry with slightly more risk.
- 🟢 Darker green appears when the ratio is both below the lower band and below the median, pointing to a potentially stronger, longer-term value entry.
- ⚠️ This logic was tested using 1 and 2-day time frames. It may not be as helpful in longer time frames, as the financial data TradingView pulls in begins in Q4 2017.
- ⚠️ Note: This script relies on financial data availability through TradingView. It may not function properly with certain tickers — especially ETFs, IPOs, or thinly tracked assets — where P/S ratio data is missing or incomplete.
- ⚠️ This indicator will not guarantee successful results. Use in conjunction with other indicators and do your due diligence.
- 🤖 This script was iteratively refined with the help of AI to ensure clean logic, minimalist design, and actionable signal clarity.
- 📢 Idea is based on the script "Historical PE ratio vs median" by haribotagada
- 💬 Questions, feedback, or suggestions? Drop a comment — I’d love to hear how you’re using it or what you'd like to see changed.
P/E Ratio vs Median + Bollinger Band- 📝 This indicator highlights potential buying opportunities by analyzing the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio in relation to Bollinger Bands and its historical median.
- 🎯 The goal is to provide a visually intuitive signal for value-oriented entries, especially when valuation compression aligns with historical context.
- 💡 Vertical green shading is applied when the P/E ratio drops below the lower Bollinger Band, which is calculated directly from the P/E ratio itself — not price. This condition often signals the ticker may be oversold.
- 🟢 Lighter green appears when the ratio is below the lower band but above the median, suggesting a possible shorter-term entry with slightly more risk.
- 🟢 Darker green appears when the ratio is both below the lower band and below the median, pointing to a potentially stronger, longer-term value entry.
- ⚠️ This logic was tested using 1 and 2-day time frames. It may not be as helpful in longer time frames, as the financial data TradingView pulls in begins in Q4 2017.
- ⚠️ Note: This script relies on financial data availability through TradingView. It may not function properly with certain tickers — especially ETFs, IPOs, or thinly tracked assets — where P/S ratio data is missing or incomplete.
- ⚠️ This indicator will not guarantee successful results. Use in conjunction with other indicators and do your due diligence.
- 🤖 This script was iteratively refined with the help of AI to ensure clean logic, minimalist design, and actionable signal clarity.
- 📢 Idea is based on the script "Historical PE ratio vs median" by haribotagada
- 💬 Questions, feedback, or suggestions? Drop a comment — I’d love to hear how you’re using it or what you'd like to see changed.
P/S Ratio vs Median + Bollinger Band- 📝 This indicator highlights potential buying opportunities by analyzing the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio in relation to Bollinger Bands and its historical median.
- 🎯 The goal is to provide a visually intuitive signal for value-oriented entries, especially when valuation compression aligns with historical context.
- 💡 Vertical green shading is applied when the P/S ratio drops below the lower Bollinger Band, which is calculated directly from the P/S ratio itself — not price. This condition often signals the ticker may be oversold.
- 🟢 Lighter green appears when the ratio is below the lower band but above the median, suggesting a possible shorter-term entry with slightly more risk.
- 🟢 Darker green appears when the ratio is both below the lower band and below the median, pointing to a potentially stronger, longer-term value entry.
- ⚠️ This logic was tested using 1 and 2-day time frames. It may not be as helpful in longer time frames, as the financial data TradingView pulls in begins in Q4 2017.
- ⚠️ Note: This script relies on financial data availability through TradingView. It may not function properly with certain tickers — especially ETFs, IPOs, or thinly tracked assets — where P/S ratio data is missing or incomplete.
- ⚠️ This indicator will not guarantee successful results. Use in conjunction with other indicators and do your due diligence.
- 🤖 This script was iteratively refined with the help of AI to ensure clean logic, minimalist design, and actionable signal clarity.
- 📢 Idea is based on the script "Historical PE ratio vs median" by @haribotagada
- 💬 Questions, feedback, or suggestions? Drop a comment — I’d love to hear how you’re using it or what you'd like to see changed.
Strat Failed 2-Up/2-Down Scanner v2**Strat Failed 2-Up/2-Down Scanner**
The Strat Failed 2-Up/2-Down Scanner is designed for traders using The Strat methodology, developed by Rob Smith, to identify key reversal patterns in any market and timeframe. This indicator detects two specific candlestick patterns: Failed 2-Up (bearish) and Failed 2-Down (bullish), which signal potential reversals when a directional move fails to follow through.
**What It Does**
- **Failed 2-Up**: Identifies a bearish candle where the low and high are higher than the previous candle’s low and high, but the close is below the open, indicating a failed attempt to continue an uptrend. These are marked with a red candlestick, a red downward triangle above the bar, and a table entry.
- **Failed 2-Down**: Identifies a bullish candle where the high and low are lower than the previous candle’s high and low, but the close is above the open, signaling a failed downtrend. These are marked with a green candlestick, a green upward triangle below the bar, and a table entry.
- A table in the top-right corner displays the signal type ("Failed 2-Up" or "Failed 2-Down") and the ticker symbol for quick reference.
- Alerts are provided for both patterns, making the indicator compatible with TradingView’s screener for automated scanning.
**How It Works**
The indicator analyzes each candlestick’s high, low, and close relative to the previous candle:
- Failed 2-Up: `low > low `, `high > high `, `close < open`.
- Failed 2-Down: `high < high `, `low < low `, `close > open`.
When these conditions are met, the indicator applies visual markers (colored bars and triangles) and updates the signal table. Alert conditions trigger notifications for integration with TradingView’s alert system.
**How to Use**
1. Apply the indicator to any chart (stocks, forex, crypto, etc.) on any timeframe (e.g., 1-minute, hourly, daily).
2. Monitor the chart for red (Failed 2-Up) or green (Failed 2-Down) candlesticks with corresponding triangles.
3. Check the top-right table for the latest signal and ticker.
4. Set alerts by selecting “Failed 2-Up Detected” or “Failed 2-Down Detected” in TradingView’s alert menu to receive notifications (e.g., via email or app).
5. Use the signals to identify potential reversal setups in conjunction with other Strat-based analysis, such as swing levels or time-based strategies.
**Originality**
Unlike other Strat indicators that may focus on swing levels or complex candlestick combinations, this scanner specifically targets Failed 2-Up and Failed 2-Down patterns with clear, minimalist visualizations (bars, triangles, table) and robust alert functionality. Its simplicity makes it accessible for both novice and experienced traders using The Strat methodology.
**Ideal For**
Day traders, swing traders, and scalpers looking to capitalize on reversal signals in trending or ranging markets. The indicator is versatile for any asset class and timeframe, enhancing trade decision-making with The Strat’s pattern-based approach.
MacD Alerts MACD Triggers (MTF) — Buy/Sell Alerts
What it is
A clean, multi-timeframe MACD indicator that gives you separate, ready-to-use alerts for:
• MACD Buy – MACD line crosses above the Signal line
• MACD Sell – MACD line crosses below the Signal line
It keeps the familiar MACD lines + histogram, adds optional 4-color histogram logic, and marks crossovers with green/red dots. Works on any symbol and any timeframe.
How signals are generated
• MACD = EMA(fast) − EMA(slow)
• Signal = SMA(MACD, length)
• Buy when crossover(MACD, Signal)
• Sell when crossunder(MACD, Signal)
• You can compute MACD on the chart timeframe or lock it to another timeframe (e.g., 1h MACD on a 4h chart).
Key features
• MTF engine: choose Use Current Chart Resolution or a custom timeframe.
• Separate alert conditions: publish two alerts (“MACD Buy” and “MACD Sell”)—ideal for different notifications or webhooks.
• Visuals: MACD/Signal lines, optional 4-color histogram (trend & above/below zero), and crossover dots.
• Heikin Ashi friendly: runs on whatever candle type your chart uses. (Tip below if you want “regular” candles while viewing HA.)
Settings (Inputs)
• Use Current Chart Resolution (on/off)
• Custom Timeframe (when the above is off)
• Show MACD & Signal / Show Histogram / Show Dots
• Color MACD on Signal Cross
• Use 4-color Histogram
• Lengths: Fast EMA (12), Slow EMA (26), Signal SMA (9)
How to set alerts (2 minutes)
1. Add the script to your chart.
2. Click ⏰ Alerts → + Create Alert.
3. Condition: choose this indicator → MACD Buy.
4. Options: Once per bar close (recommended).
5. Set your notification method (popup/email/webhook) → Create.
6. Repeat for MACD Sell.
Webhook tip: send JSON like
{"symbol":"{{ticker}}","time":"{{timenow}}","signal":"BUY","price":"{{close}}"}
(and “SELL” for the sell alert).
Good to know
• Symbol-agnostic: use it on crypto, stocks, indices—no symbol is hard-coded.
• Timeframe behavior: alerts are evaluated on bar close of the MACD timeframe you pick. Using a higher TF on a lower-TF chart is supported.
• Heikin Ashi note: if your chart uses HA, the calculations use HA by default. To force “regular” candles while viewing HA, tweak the code to use ticker.heikinashi() only when you want it.
• No repainting on close: crossover signals are confirmed at bar close; choose Once per bar close to avoid intra-bar noise.
Disclaimer
This is a tool, not advice. Test across timeframes/markets and combine with risk management (position sizing, SL/TP). Past performance ≠ future results.
PnL_EMA_TRACK12_PRO_3.3_full_adjusted# Multi-Ticker Support
Manage up to 12 tickers simultaneously.
- For each symbol, input share quantities, entry prices, and two optional additional entry points (E2, E3) with their own shares and offset percentages.
- Dynamic handling of inputs using arrays for easier maintenance and scalability.
# Average Cost and PnL Calculation
- Computes weighted average entry costs across all position parts (E1 and optionally E2 and E3).
- Calculates real-time Profit & Loss (PnL) both in USD and percentage relative to the current price.
- Color-coded values: green for profit, red for loss — for quick visual feedback.
# Moving Averages as Benchmarks
- Uses daily EMAs (10, 21, 65) and 15-minute SMA 200 as reference levels.
- Calculates percentage deviations of these moving averages from the average entry price.
- Calculates dollar differences based on the total shares held.
# Chart Visualization
- Draws a dashed yellow line for the average cost of each position.
- Optionally draws two additional lines and labels for E2 (blue) and E3 (purple) if activated.
- Lines extend to the right to emphasize current relevance.
- Labels can be positioned left or right, with customizable horizontal offset.
# Interactive Table in Chart
- Positions the info table in any chosen corner or center of the chart (top/right/left/middle, etc.).
- Displays symbol, PnL (dollar and percentage), and deviations to key EMAs and SMA.
- Colors PnL values according to profit or loss for instant clarity.
# User-Friendly Settings
- Flexible font size options for both the table and labels.
- Customizable colors for positive and negative values (default green/red).
- Choice of label position and X-axis offset to fit your chart style.
X-Day Capital Efficiency ScoreThis indicator helps identify the Most Profitable Movers for Your fixed Capital (ie, which assets offer the best average intraday profit potential for a fixed capital).
Unlike traditional volatility indicators (like ATR or % change), this script calculates how much real dollar profit you could have made each day over a custom lookback period — assuming you deployed your full capital into that ticker daily.
How it works:
Calculates the daily intraday range (high − low)
Filters for clean candles (where body > 60% of the candle range)
Assumes you invested the full amount of capital ($100K set as default) on each valid day
Computes an average daily profit score based on price action over the selected period (default set to 20 days)
Plots the score in dollars — higher = more efficient use of capital
Why It’s Useful:
Compare tickers based on real dollar return potential — not just % volatility
Spot low-priced, high-volatility stocks that are better suited for intraday or momentum trading
Inputs:
Capital ($): Amount you're hypothetically deploying (e.g., 100,000)
Look Back Period: Number of past days to average over (e.g., 20)
Essa - Multi-Timeframe LevelsEnhanced Multi‐Timeframe Levels
This indicator plots yearly, quarterly and monthly highs, lows and midpoints on your chart. Each level is drawn as a horizontal line with an optional label showing “ – ” (for example “Apr 2025 High – 1.2345”). If two or more timeframes share the same price (within two ticks), they are merged into a single line and the label lists each timeframe.
A distance table can be shown in any corner of the chart. It lists up to five active levels closest to the current closing price and shows for each level:
level name (e.g. “May 2025 Low”)
exact price
distance in pips or points (calculated according to the instrument’s tick size)
percentage difference relative to the close
Alerts can be enabled so that whenever price comes within a user-specified percentage of any level (for example 0.1 %), an alert fires. Once price decisively crosses a level, that level is marked as “broken” so it does not trigger again. Built-in alertcondition hooks are also provided for definite breaks of the current monthly, quarterly and yearly highs and lows.
Monthly lookback is configurable (default 6 months), and once the number of levels exceeds a cap (calculated as 20 + monthlyLookback × 3), the oldest levels are automatically removed to avoid clutter. Line widths and colours (with adjustable opacity for quarterly and monthly) can be set separately for each timeframe. Touches of each level are counted internally to allow future extension (for example visually emphasising levels with multiple touches).
VIX Z-Score (Inverted)📘 Indicator: VIX Z-Score (Inverted) + Table
🔍 Overview
This indicator calculates the Z-Score of the VIX (Volatility Index) and inverts it to identify potential buying opportunities during periods of fear and caution during periods of extreme optimism. The Z-Score is smoothed and visually displayed alongside a dynamic info table.
⚙️ How It Works
VIX Data: The VIX (ticker: CBOE:VIX) is pulled in real time.
Z-Score Calculation:
𝑍
=
(
𝑉
𝐼
𝑋
−
mean
)
standard deviation
Z=
standard deviation
(VIX−mean)
Over a customizable lookback period (default: 50).
Inversion:
Since high VIX usually means fear (often a contrarian buying signal), we invert the Z-Score:
𝑍
inv
=
−
𝑍
Z
inv
=−Z
Smoothing:
An EMA is applied to reduce noise and false signals.
Clamping:
The Z-Score is linearly scaled and capped between +2 and -2 for easy visualization in the info table.
📊 Z-Score Table (Top-Right)
Range Interpretation Table Color
+1.5 to +2 Extreme fear → Buy zone 🟩 Green
+0.5 to +1.5 Moderate fear 🟨 Lime
–0.5 to +0.5 Neutral ⬜ Gray
–0.5 to –1.5 Growing complacency 🟧 Orange
–1.5 to –2 Extreme optimism → Caution 🟥 Red
The current Z-Score (clamped version) is shown in real time on the right-hand info panel.
🧠 How to Use It
+2 Zone (Table: Green):
Market fear is at an extreme. Historically, such conditions are contrarian bullish—possible entry zones.
–2 Zone (Table: Red):
Indicates extreme optimism and low fear. Often a signal to be cautious or take profits.
Middle range (±0.5):
Market is neutral. Avoid major decisions based solely on sentiment here.
🧪 Best Practices
Combine with price action, volume, or trend filters.
Works well on daily or 4H timeframes.
Not a standalone signal—best used to confirm or fade sentiment extremes.
Camarilla Pivot Plays█ OVERVIEW
This indicator implements the Camarilla Pivot Points levels and a system for suggesting particular plays. It only calculates and shows the 3rd, 4th, and 6th levels, as these are the only ones used by the system. In total, there are 12 possible plays, grouped into two groups of six. The algorithm constantly evaluates conditions for entering and exiting the plays and indicates them in real time, also triggering user-configurable alerts.
█ CREDITS
The Camarilla pivot plays are defined in a strategy developed by Thor Young, and the whole system is explained in his book "A Complete Day Trading System" . The indicator is published with his permission, and he is a user of it. The book is not necessary in order to understand and use the indicator; this description contains sufficient information to use it effectively.
█ FEATURES
Automatically draws plays, suggesting an entry, stop-loss, and maximum target
User can set alerts on chosen ticker to call these plays, even when not currently viewing them
Highly configurable via many options
Works for US/European stocks and US futures (at least)
Works correctly on both RTH and ETH charts
Automatically switches between RTH and ETH data
Optionally also shows the "other" set of pivots (RTH vs ETH data)
Configurable behaviour in the pre-market, not active in the post-market
Configurable sensitivity of the play detection algorithm
Can also show weekly and monthly Camarilla pivots
Well-documented options tooltips
Sensible defaults which are suitable for immediate use
Well-documented and high-quality open-source code for those who are interested
█ HOW TO USE
The defaults work well; at a minimum, just add the indicator and watch the plays being called. To avoid having to watch securities, by selecting the three dots next to the indicator name, you can set an alert on the indicator and choose to be alerted on play entry or exit events—or both. The following diagram shows several plays activated in the past (with the "Show past plays" option selected).
By default, the indicator draws plays 5 days back; this can be changed up to 20 days. The labels can be shifted left/right using the "label offset" option to avoid overlapping with other labels in this indicator or those of another indicator.
An information box at the top-right of the chart shows:
The data currently in use for the main pivots. This can switch in the pre-market if the H/L range exceeds the previous day's H/L, and if it does, you will see that switch at the time that it happens
Whether the current day's pivots are in a higher or lower range compared to the previous day's. This is based on the RTH close, so large moves in the post-market won't be reflected (there is an advanced option to change this)
The width of the value relationship in the current day compared to the previous day
The currently active play. If multiple plays are active in parallel, only the last activated one is shown
The resistance pivots are all drawn in the same colour (red by default), as are the support pivots (green by default). You can change the resistance and support colours, but it is not possible to have different colours for different levels of the same kind. Plays will always use the correct colour, drawing over the pivots. For example, R4 is red by default, but if a play treats R4 as a support, then the play will draw a green line (by default) over the red R4 line, thereby hiding it while the play is active.
There are a few advanced parameters; leave these as default unless you really know what they do. Please note the script is complicated—it does a lot. You might need to wait a few seconds while it (re)calculates on new tickers or when changing options. Give it time when first loading or changing options!
█ CONCEPTS
The indicator is focused around daily Camarilla pivots and implements 12 possible plays: 6 when in a higher range, 6 when in a lower range. The plays are labelled by two letters—the first indicates the range, the second indicates the play—as shown in this diagram:
The pivots can be calculated using only RTH (Regular Trading Hours) data, or ETH (Extended Trading Hours) data, which includes the pre-market and post-market. The indicator implements logic to automatically choose the correct data, based on the rules defined by the strategy. This is user-overridable. With the default options, ETH will be used when the H/L range in the previous day's post-market or current day's pre-market exceeds that of the previous day's regular market. In auto mode, the chosen pivots are considered the main pivots for that day and are the ones used for play evaluation. The "other" pivots can also be shown—"other" here meaning using ETH data when the main pivots use RTH data, and vice versa.
When displaying plays in the pre-market, since the RTH open is not yet known (and that value is needed to evaluate play pre-conditions), the pre-market open is used as a proxy for the RTH open. After the regular market opens, the correct RTH open is used to evaluate play conditions.
█ NOTE FOR FUTURES
Futures always use full ETH data in auto mode. Users may, however, wish to use the option "Always use RTH close," which uses the 3 p.m. Central Time (CME/Chicago) as a basis for the close in the pivot calculations (instead of the 4 p.m. actual close).
Futures don't officially have a pre-market or post-market like equities. Let's take ES on CME as an example (CME is in Chicago, so all times are Central Time, i.e., 1 hour behind Eastern Time). It trades from 17:00 Sunday to 16:00 Friday, with a daily pause between 16:00 and 17:00. However, most of the trading activity is done between 08:30 and 15:00 (Central), which you can tell from the volume spikes at those times, and this coincides with NYSE/NASDAQ regular hours (09:30–16:00 Eastern). So we define a pseudo-pre-market from 17:00 the previous day to 08:30 on the current day, then a pseudo-regular market from 08:30 to 15:00, then a pseudo-post-market from 15:00 to 16:00.
The indicator then works exactly the same as with equities—all the options behave the same, just with different session times defined for the pre-, regular, and post-market, with "RTH" meaning just the regular market and "ETH" meaning all three. The only difference from equities is that the auto calculation mode always uses ETH instead of switching based on ETH range compared to RTH range. This is so users who just leave all the defaults are not confused by auto-switching of the calculation mode; normally you'll want the pivots based on all the (ETH) data. However, both "Force RTH" and "Use RTH close with ETH data" work the same as with equities—so if, in the calculations, you really want to only use RTH data, or use all ETH H/L data but use the RTH close (at 15:00), you can.
█ LIMITATIONS
The pivots are very close to those shown in DAS Trader Pro. They are not to-the-cent exact, but within a few cents. The reasons are:
TradingView uses real-time data from CBOE One, so doesn't have access to full exchange data (unless you pay for it in TradingView), and
the close/high/low are taken from the intraday timeframe you are currently viewing, not daily data—which are very close, but often not exactly the same. For example, the high on the daily timeframe may differ slightly from the daily high you'll see on an intraday timeframe.
I have occasionally seen larger than a few cents differences in the pivots between these and DAS Trader Pro—this is always due to differences in data, for example a big spike in the data in TradingView but not in DAS Trader Pro, or vice versa. The more traded the stock is, the less the difference tends to be. Highly traded stocks are usually within a few cents. Less traded stocks may be more (for example, 30¢ difference in R4 is the highest I've seen). If it bothers you, official NYSE/NASDAQ data in TradingView is quite inexpensive (but even that doesn't make the 8am candle identical).
The 6th Camarilla level does not have a standard definition and may not match the level shown on other platforms. It does match the definition used by DAS Trader Pro.
The indicator is an intraday indicator (despite also being able to show weekly and monthly pivots on an intraday chart). It deactivates on a daily timeframe and higher. It is untested on sub-minute timeframes; you may encounter runtime errors on these due to various historical data referencing issues. Also, the play detection algorithm would likely be unpredictable on sub-minute timeframes. Therefore, sub-minute timeframes are formally unsupported.
The indicator was developed and tested for US/European stocks and US futures. It may or may not work as intended for stocks and futures in different locations. It does not work for other security types (e.g., crypto), where I have no evidence that the strategy has any relevance.
Dskyz (DAFE) AI Adaptive Regime - Beginners VersionDskyz (DAFE) AI Adaptive Regime - Pro: Revolutionizing Trading for All
Introduction
In the fast-paced world of financial markets, traders need tools that can keep up with ever-changing conditions while remaining accessible. The Dskyz (DAFE) AI Adaptive Regime - Pro is a groundbreaking TradingView strategy that delivers advanced, AI-driven trading capabilities to everyday traders. Available on TradingView (TradingView Scripts), this Pine Script strategy combines sophisticated market analysis with user-friendly features, making it a standout choice for both novice and experienced traders.
Core Functionality
The strategy is built to adapt to different market regimes—trending, ranging, volatile, or quiet—using a robust set of technical indicators, including:
Moving Averages (MA): Fast and slow EMAs to detect trend direction.
Average True Range (ATR): For dynamic stop-loss and volatility assessment.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD: Multi-timeframe confirmation of momentum and trend.
Average Directional Index (ADX): To identify trending markets.
Bollinger Bands: For assessing volatility and range conditions.
Candlestick Patterns: Recognizes patterns like bullish engulfing, hammer, and double bottoms, confirmed by volume spikes.
It generates buy and sell signals based on a scoring system that weighs these indicators, ensuring trades align with the current market environment. The strategy also includes dynamic risk management with ATR-based stops and trailing stops, as well as performance tracking to optimize future trades.
What Sets It Apart
The Dskyz (DAFE) AI Adaptive Regime - Pro distinguishes itself from other TradingView strategies through several unique features, which we compare to common alternatives below:
| Feature | Dskyz (DAFE) | Typical TradingView Strategies|
|---------|-------------|------------------------------------------------------------|
| Regime Detection | Automatically identifies and adapts to **four** market regimes | Often static or limited to trend/range detection |
| Multi‑Timeframe Analysis | Uses higher‑timeframe RSI/MACD for confirmation | Rarely incorporates multi‑timeframe data |
| Pattern Recognition | Detects candlestick patterns **with volume confirmation** | Limited or no pattern recognition |
| Dynamic Risk Management | ATR‑based stops and trailing stops | Often uses fixed stops or basic risk rules |
| Performance Tracking | Adjusts thresholds based on past performance | Typically static parameters |
| Beginner‑Friendly Presets | Aggressive, Conservative, Optimized profiles | Requires manual parameter tuning |
| Visual Cues | Color‑coded backgrounds for regimes | Basic or no visual aids |
The Dskyz strategy’s ability to integrate regime detection, multi-timeframe analysis, and user-friendly presets makes it uniquely versatile and accessible, addressing the needs of everyday traders who want professional-grade tools without the complexity.
-Key Features and Benefits
[Why It’s Ideal for Everyday Traders
⚡The Dskyz (DAFE) AI Adaptive Regime - Pro democratizes advanced trading by offering professional-grade tools in an accessible package. Unlike many TradingView strategies that require deep technical knowledge or fail in changing market conditions, this strategy simplifies complex analysis while maintaining robustness. Its presets and visual aids make it easy for beginners to start, while its adaptive features and performance tracking appeal to advanced traders seeking an edge.
🔄Limitations and Considerations
Market Dependency: Performance varies by market and timeframe. Backtesting is essential to ensure compatibility with your trading style.
Learning Curve: While presets simplify use, understanding regimes and indicators enhances effectiveness.
No Guaranteed Profits: Like all strategies, success depends on market conditions and proper execution. The Reddit discussion highlights skepticism about TradingView strategies’ universal success (Reddit Discussion).
Instrument Specificity: Optimized for futures (e.g., ES, NQ) due to fixed tick values. Test on other instruments like stocks or forex to verify compatibility.
📌Conclusion
The Dskyz (DAFE) AI Adaptive Regime - Pro is a revolutionary TradingView strategy that empowers everyday traders with advanced, AI-driven tools. Its ability to adapt to market regimes, confirm signals across timeframes, and manage risk dynamically. sets it apart from typical strategies. By offering beginner-friendly presets and visual cues, it makes sophisticated trading accessible without sacrificing power. Whether you’re a novice looking to trade smarter or a pro seeking a competitive edge, this strategy is your ticket to mastering the markets. Add it to your chart, backtest it, and join the elite traders leveraging AI to dominate. Trade like a boss today! 🚀
Use it with discipline. Use it with clarity. Trade smarter.
**I will continue to release incredible strategies and indicators until I turn this into a brand or until someone offers me a contract.
-Dskyz
Scalper's Fractal Cloud with RSI + VWAP + MACD (Fixed)Scalper’s Fractal Confluence Dashboard
1. Purpose of the Indicator
This TradingView indicator script provides a high-confluence setup for scalping and day trading. It blends momentum indicators (RSI, MACD), trend bias tools (EMA Cloud, VWAP), and structure (fractal swings, gap zones) to help confirm precise entries and exits.
2. Components of the Indicator
- EMA Cloud (50 & 200 EMA): Trend bias – green means bullish, red means bearish. Avoid longs under red cloud.
- VWAP: Institutional volume anchor. Ideal entries are pullbacks to VWAP in direction of trend.
- Gap Zones: Shows open-air zones (white space) where price can move fast. Used to anticipate momentum moves.
- ZigZag Swings: Marks structural pivots (highs/lows) – useful for stop placement and range anticipation.
- MACD Histogram: Shows bullish or bearish momentum via background color.
- RSI: Overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) warnings. Good for exits or countertrend reversion plays.
- EMA Spread Label: Quick view of momentum strength. Wide spread = strong trend.
3. Scalping Entry Checklist
Before entering a trade, confirm these conditions:
• • Bias: EMA cloud color supports trade direction
• • Price is above/below VWAP (confirming institutional flow)
• • MACD histogram matches direction (green for long, red for short)
• • RSI not at extreme (unless you’re fading trend)
• • If entering gap zone, expect fast move
• • Recent swing high/low nearby for target or stop
4. Risk & Sizing Guidelines
Risk 1–2% of account per trade. Place stop below recent swing low (for longs) or high (for shorts). Use fractional sizing near VWAP or white space zones for scalping reversals.
5. Daily Trade Journal Template
- Date:
- Ticker:
- Setup Type (VWAP pullback, Gap Break, EMA reversion):
- Entry Time:
- Bias (Green/Red Cloud):
- RSI Level / MACD Reading:
- Stop Loss:
- Target:
- Result (P/L):
- What I Did Well:
- What Needs Work:
